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No much going on in Canada, So…

Let’s talk Greece!

You just have to go on the web here to see that things there are deteriorating. Riots, members of parliament resigning, German minister stating that commercial lenders must take a hair cut, Belgian Minister saying no hair cut, and president of ECB saying: What’s a hair cut!

The market has already decided that the inevitable will happens very soon. Kudos to the German banks for selling off all the Greek, Portuguese debt to the ECB, they probably got top dollars…and are now asking for a Greek debt restructuring. French banks not so amused, Trichet told them, no restructuring of Greek debt, so they kept it all, Result: French banks are looking at the hard end of an S&P downgrading.

Some say that Greece has hundred of billions in assets to sell (after all it could sell the Elgin marble to the British for a few bucks!) The reality is that most buyers know that when the seller is sovereign, has a gun to his head and feels that all its treasure is worth a fortune, is no probably the best time to buy assets. The Greek “sale” breaches the primary principle of a willing buyer and willing seller, since Greece is being “forced” to sell its assets…

Following all the comings and going at the ECB, European minister 1 day 2 day conference on the “crisis” interest rates on 2 year Greek debt has risen to 28%. The problem was always that there was no real solution being contemplated by the ECB/IMF for solving Greece’s excessive debt burden – just more debt. Selling state owned assets is certainly a solution (see above), but it will take years, in many instances the asset sales are complex and would require new laws. The Greek government could sell the water works, rail system and other utilities – that would raise cash, but it assumes that ratepayers will agree too much higher utility rates. You could sell motorways and a few Geek islands (they are a large number), but overall very complicated issues would need to be addressed.

I live in Quebec, try mentioning here that selling Hydro Quebec would be a good idea to reduce the province’s debt burden… in fact I double dare you to try that , it is what is called politely political suicide, or a lynch mob.

The Greek train wreck will continue on its path as do all tragedies (how fitting that the father of the tragic play was Aeschylus -- a Greek), the end is inevitable the interest is in seeing what progression, or road the actors take, some actors are heroic others less so, but the outcome has been settled at the outset, it is all too sad!

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