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Estates General!


It’s a strange use of word, but it represents something real here in Quebec.  First off, the words come from 1789, when the French king decided to bring all French together (Nobility, clergy, business and the rest) to figure out how to pay for the wars.  French king liked his wars!  Anyway, the result was the 1789 French revolution, because neither the nobility or the clergy paid any taxes – they were exempt, so business and the rest decide that enough was enough and the guillotine solved many problems.

Back to Quebec, the “revolutionary” thematic is somewhat understood here, although it’s evident that those calling for this “conversation” don’t know or remember what happened to those who called for the process in 1789 (they got their head chopped off).  The problem, as I’ve often expressed it, is that the “revolution” that was called by the early leaders dates back to the 1950s and 1960s – a long time ago, the early leaders (you can still see Rene Lévesque’s’ speech in 1976 when winning the election in black and white with cigarette dangling…), are more or less gone and their successors are worn out.  Young Quebecers cannot relate with that story, they have no connection to the hardship faced by French Canadians, as late as the 1970s. For them, French is everywhere and all the time, in school, on TV and at the movies.  They have other issues getting a job, a car or a girlfriend. 

The problem was that while winning an election in 1976 and making major changes (forcing French school on all, French in the workplace and French signage on buildings) has made English a non-event.  Master in our own home when there is virtually no sign of “others” is difficult to explain.  Quebecers, via the new media have also begun to understand that the Anglos are not monolithic – when a separatist movement emerged in Alberta, Quebecers were very surprised, that Alberta didn’t think like Toronto (they were even more surprised when the encountered the Western Canadian animosity vis-à-vis Toronto). 

So back to the Estates General where all these separatists will get together and decide how they will push their ideals forward.  The press loves this stuff, its sells paper – unfortunately, after 60 years in and out of power, two referendums where even the mildest form of separation was rejected; there are not many new ideas under the sun.  Not to get too crude, but this whole thing will look like a “circle jerk” very quickly.  In a sense, the best news for the separatists is the news now – before the process begins for real, because they get airtime.

So what are the option:
  1. Another referendum
  2. Don’t ask, just unilaterally declare independence
  3. Put the whole thing on the back burner for 10,20 or 30 years
  4. Give up the dream focus on winning power


There are probably other options available but these are the big ones.  First point no government will seek a referendum unless they have a fair chance of winning.  Apparently, the mildest and most open question gets no more than 40% approval, while pure separation gets 20% of the vote.  BTW most don’t know what it means to separate – this is mostly a philosophical issue.  The chance that Quebec could unilaterally declare independence is somewhat more complicated, because without a strong majority for independence there really is no reason for the rest of Canada to agree.  Although the idea of putting the whole issue on the back burner has been suggested on a number of occasions, it has not worked with the movement activists – they keep on believing that Quebecers will soon see the error of their way, and will jump on the chance to separate.  Giving up separation is just not possible, mainly because the “coalition” that is the Parti Quebecois” has both social extremes – conservative all the way to Marxists (if you don’t believe me, the guy in change of organising the Estates General is a well know Marxist.. he defines himself as such), and everything in the middle. 

The result here is that the only option for the PQ is the Status Quo, anything else spells doom of the party, which is simply unacceptable to those who run it.  Activists spend an incredible amount of time on their ideas and philosophy and will not give up the fight, and yet it is already lost.  Maybe there will be a backlash, but with these troubled economic times (South of the border) it is hard to see much lust for the separatist agenda.  The death of the Bloc Quebecois in Ottawa (BTW noneof Canada’s three oppositions have  a leader) and the languishing rating of the PQ in the province of Quebec (around 12% of voter’s interest) speaks volume for the movement’s dilemma.
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