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Showing posts from September, 2015

Eximbank: The fall out has begun

Well that was unexpected (NOT), GE today announced that its new $300 million engine plant, where all the new engines will be built (next generation) will be located in Canada!  People still cannot believe that US Export Import Bank has closed its doors, but GE has decided that it can no longer wait for the US government to figure out reality.

For Canada this is massive, because engines production line have a very very long life cycle; first the engines are developed for a new type, these are built for a number of years (eg the 777 was built for 15 years) but then new engines are required for the fleet going forward for another 25 years.  Moreover, once "one plant" has been moved, others will follow -- mainly because the specialised skills are there.  On the long run this is all good for Canada.  Granted we are only talking 350 jobs, but in reality there are a lot more jobs involved; GE does the final assembly, but a great deal of sub assembly is done by risk participants, th…

Were any markets not rigged?

Its beginning to sound insane, but this weeks's UBS "gold" scandal is just adding insult to injury. Turns out that for giving up its co-conspirators UBS will be given a "lighter sentence" on its manipulation of the gold market.
Now first off, I don't know what gold market they are talking about -- is it physical gold how did they cheat, I just don't know -- and don't want to give any excuse to the goldbugs to say"  See we were right".  
The list of markets that were rigged by the big banks -- we are not talking 2007 here, but 2015 is getting long (rather the number of market that were not rigged -- against customers is getting short):  So far the LIBOR market was rigged (interest rates), the Foreign exchange market was rigged, the treasury market was rigged [the VW diesel market was rigged...oops wrong industry -- they will go to jail for ever], and now the gold market (and I would venture the entire precious metal market) has been rigged…

Maybe not Bush, but Walker is a gonner!

So I think we are back to 2012 at the time of the last Presidential primary when a "cycle" of bozo and unprepared circulated as the "candidate of choice" as the GOP crowd favorite "Republican candidate to the presidency".  It seems that Mrs Fiorina has jumped from around 3% to 15%, ahead of "I am falling asleep" Carson who is just ahead of Rubio.

Now Mr Trump seems to have sunk from 32% support last week to 24% this week -- could this be the sign that the GOP establishment has been hoping for; the end of the Trump nightmare?  At the last CNN 3 hours marathon debate she was poling around 3% -- so she's now #2 in the race at 15%.   Mr. Bush the favorite of the neo-con wing (also favorite of the Roosevelt Republicans) is nowhere to be seen (sitting around 9%) in 5th place.  He's apparently sitting on more than $100 million -- so he will not rush for the exit, but its got to be somewhat dispiriting to be with the also ran.

It also brings hop…

The primaries is all bullshit?

When I heard Sara Palin refer to Native Americans as people who should go back to Nativia I suddenly realised that the objective was not to say anything smart, in fact saying something stupid made sure that you were in the news.  It seems that the new game plan for Republicans is to say stuff that is so dumb that it will bring notoriety to the person saying it, and coverage.  Scott Walker's Canadian Wall was a case of very stupid idea -- this is a country that cannot find money to maintain its bridges and overpasses and would spent 10 of billion building a wall.  It got Walker press for 24 hours -- granted unlike Teflon Trump (TT for short) it didn't work out as intended.  There use to be a saying good or bad press it doesn't matter as long as they talk about you!  It seems that the 16, 1737 36 candidates to the GOP presidential primaries are now taking this strategy to heart.  Don't know if it will work -- it worked for TT and for Carson because they were the only on…

So what's really changed and why the panic

Its like the movie Airplane, when the overhead seat belt signs in the aircraft indicates:  Okay Panic. Being honest for a few minutes with ultra low interest rates, and weak(ish) world economy (US seems to be doing OK, but Europe and Japan are not) and a slowing China (maybe not slowing as much as growing less quickly), the world is not really floundering, its just not performing.
So what has really changed is volatility -- it could be a sign of something else, as it could be just a bout of volatility because there are changes afoot:

Oil prices are falling again -- accelerating the shift of ressources from producers (of oil) to consumers; a far more diffused group than the oil producers.Fed Chairman has indicated that interest rate hike(s) are on the way, that makes bonds "one way bet for the past 20 years" done and gone.China -- well the government seems to have lost control ; and has decided that the stock market was a proof of economic virility!  What they do next is anyo…