Skip to main content

The primaries is all bullshit?

When I heard Sara Palin refer to Native Americans as people who should go back to Nativia I suddenly realised that the objective was not to say anything smart, in fact saying something stupid made sure that you were in the news.  It seems that the new game plan for Republicans is to say stuff that is so dumb that it will bring notoriety to the person saying it, and coverage.  Scott Walker's Canadian Wall was a case of very stupid idea -- this is a country that cannot find money to maintain its bridges and overpasses and would spent 10 of billion building a wall.  It got Walker press for 24 hours -- granted unlike Teflon Trump (TT for short) it didn't work out as intended.  There use to be a saying good or bad press it doesn't matter as long as they talk about you!  It seems that the 1617 37 36 candidates to the GOP presidential primaries are now taking this strategy to heart.  Don't know if it will work -- it worked for TT and for Carson because they were the only ones really going "full retard" but if all of them try that strategy it may backfire; so many candidates saying stupid things will get lost in the overall noise.  However, what its doing to the Republican Party is something else entirely.  The nativiste racist and bigoted statement made by the various candidates will impact the party's brand for a long time:  

(1)  Walking back the stupid is going to be hard in the age of internet:  Eventually, one of these guys is going to be the GOP's candidate to the White House, and what's been said -- some of it simply terrible, is going to be hard to walk back.  Granted the electorate has short memory span, but this is not the 1990's we've got YouTube now -- so any pronouncement can be replayed as if they took place yesterday, and who's to say differently.  Jon Stuart was a brilliant user of the format.

(2) Citizen United is killing the GOP:  The stupid season will last a long long time.  Even candidates that are polling less then 1% support are staying in the race, because these candidates are funded by the "plutocrats"  who don't mind spending a bit of cash on their favorite candidate -- even if he doesn't resonate.  The likes of Perry, Santorum, Pataki, Gilmore and Graham have zero chance of going anywhere, and yet they stay in the race; and there's a long list of candidates who hardly resonate at all.

(3) PAC money is of poor quality:  The GOP is realising that PAC money is of little value; Karl Rove spent more than $100 million (Crossroad America) on a dozen races -- all for nothing, PAC spending had little impact on voting turnout.

(4) Donald Trump and Ben Carson are a real problem; the first is a loud mouth self promotor the second is simply nuts!  These two account for nearly 5053% of all primary voters! voting intention; and their crazy is keeping them on top of the more serious candidates.

(5) Summer polling is showing a distressing trend; All candidates (except the above)  are converging towards three groups:  5%, 3% 2% and lower.  The non traditional cash available to candidates from their favorite billionaires will make the race wide open, as there are few distinguishing features between the candidates (aside from the crazy remarks).  This will prolonge the race to the convention, with all these candidates and many proportional state races no one candidate will have enough votes to win the nomination prior to the convention.  A brokered convention could be interesting (and not in a good way as far as the GOP is concerned).

UPDATE:  Trump & Carson are now at 53% combined 33% and 20% respectively.  Perry is out -- first off its not his fault, secondly he didn't raise enough own money to pay his staff, and I forget the third reason...

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Trucker shortage? No a plan to allow driverless rigs

There are still articles on how America is running out of truckers -- and that its a huge problem, except its not a problem, if it was a problem salaries would rise to so that demand would clear. Trucking is one of those industry where the vast majority of participants are owner/operators and therefore free agents.

Salaries and cost are extremely well know, "industry" complains that there are not enough truckers, yet wages continue to fall... Therefore there are still too many truckers around, for if there was a shortage of supply prices would rise, and they don't.

What there is though is something different; there is a push to allow automatic rigs to "operate across the US", so to encourage the various authorities to allow self driving rigs you talk shortage and hope that politicians decided that "Well if people don't want to work, lets get robots to do the work" or words to that effect.

This has nothing to do with shortage of drivers, but every…

Every punter says oil prices are on the rise: Oil hits $48/bbl -- lowest since September 2016

What the hell?

How could this be, punters, advisors, investment bankers all agreed commodity prices  in general and oil prices in particular are on the rise...its a brave new era for producers and exporters -- finally the world is back and demand is going through the roof, except not so much!

What happened?  Well energy is complicated, the world operates in a balance -- 30 days of physical reserves is about all we've got (seriously) this is a just in time business.  So the long term trend always gets hit by short term variations.

Global production over the past 12 months has risen by somewhat less than 1.5% per annum.  As the world market changes production becomes less energy intensive (maybe), but the reality is that the world is growing more slowly -- America Q4 GDP growth was around 1.9% (annualized) Europe is going nowhere fast (the GDP growth in Germany is overshadowed by the lack of growth in France, Italy, Spain (lets say 27 Euro members generated a total GDP growth of 1.2…

Paying for research

This morning I was reading that CLSA -- since 2013 proudly owned by CITIC -- was shutting down its American equity research department -- 90 people will be affected!

Now the value of a lot of research is limited, that is not to say that all research is bad. In fact, I remember that GS's Asia Aerospace research was considered the bible for the sector.  Granted, there was little you could do with the research since the "buy" was for Chinese airlines...that were state owned.  Still it was a vey valuable tool in understanding the local dynamics.  It seems that the US has introduced new legislation that forces brokers to "sell" their research services!  Figures of $10,000 an hour have been mentioned...

Now, research can be sold many times; if GS has 5000/6000 clients they may sell the same research 300x or 400x (I exaggerate) but this is the key -- Those who buy the research are, I presume, prohibited from giving it away or selling it, at the same time the same rese…