Well it now looks like I will lose my bet, Greece, the IMF (although they changed their mind this morning) and the ECB (aka Germany) have agreed to release a further Euro 10 + 7 billion bailing out Greece on more time, so now Greece should be Ok for the summer.
There will "apparently" be debt forgiveness... well maybe, well we don't know, but well we will decide something in 2018 (in political speak that means NEVER!).
But it now paves the way for the ECB to keep on shovelling the BS forward for another two years (hence I've now lost my bet), Greece will not be out of the European area until well after the drop dead date of my bet come by!!!!
Now lets be clear, things are unchanged in Greece, the economy continues to not grow in any meaningful way, the IMF and ECB are still disagreeing on what do to; ECB aka Germany is still on the no debt forgiveness (hence the delay until 2018 before any conversation occurs -- see comment above) because fundamentally Greece made a deal and has to stick to it (at least until the ALL of Greece's debt has been socialized -- away from Germany and France's pension funds and banks, no I am not joking). Because this entire exercise of extend and pretend is driven by one factor: saving Europe's largest investors (banks and pension funds) from having to take losses.
The entirety of Greece's debt will be in the hand of the ECB and its friends, and the private sector will be able to then say: write it off, write it off!
what a mess