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Showing posts from June, 2016

That didn't take long: No article 50 -- no talk of any form

Well Nigel and Boris first statement are wrong. It seems that these two though they could use the Referendum to get more out of EU.

Turns out that's a big fat NON, NEINE!

Merkel has said, we will talk as soon as you invoque article 50 of the EU charter/constitution.

So much for a negotiation -- also Switzerland and Norway's contribution to EU budget is "identical to that of the UK"  so not much savings there either.

What a mess, what a massive waste.

Brexit -- Class warfare -- The end of history (not so much)

Since Thatcher and Reagan came to power more than 30 years ago, a system change has occurred in the Western world.  Democracy decided that that "Moocher/looters" had taken too much and it was time for the "winner" to take a bigger share of the pie.
A decision to integrate the world, bringing access to cheap labor and a less restricted system of labour negotiations -- the big winner was capital in all its forms.  When I joined the city in 1986 the city accounted for less than 3% of GDP. Today in the UK its near 10% (granted a substantial percentage of that relates to services to other countries), but it remains, the UK saw an net immigration from the rest of Europe of nearly 6 million -- between 1993 and 2016.  The bulk of these live in London, the Capital doesn't ressemble the rest of the country (although the same could be said for Paris...).  What the last few days have show is how people have voted for Brexit:
Demographically:  the 18-49 have voted at 75% t…

New York City demonstration -- in front of the Mexican Embassy...

Well that was strange, yesterday I was walking on near the Chrysler building in mid town manhattan when I saw a rather particular sight:  Demonstration in from the the Mexican Embassy to the UN.  Didn't know what it was about, the demonstrators looked like Mexican (what do I know!).  Turns out it was about a recent massacre in the town of Oaxaca, where apparently the police killed 19 demonstrators and injured "hundreds".  
Turns out it was really serious thing -- actually the US press covered the issue (it got a little out of hand), but the real issue is that the state of Oaxaca is the most reactionary (or at least the teacher's union the most powerful) and they have stopped the state from reforming the education system -- which by the way is a unbelievable; apparently a large number of teachers have never showed up for work, they even inherited their job.  Guess what they have zero shame, they want to keep the phantom jobs.
Now, the problem is far more than just th…

The saddest news -- Brexit may well happen!

I cannot believe that I am on the same side as the big investment banks; I always though that the UK had more to gain inside of Europe than outside (Economics valuation).  Turns out the new polls are showing that a majority of Brits are for exit from Europe.  
It will be expensive economically, the pound is certain to take a hit, Britain is very reliant on foreign capital (to the tune of 7% of GDP). There is no doubt that Europe will go out of its way to make things difficult for Britain (and what about Ireland?).  Europe's bureaucrats will try to punish the Brits by killing the City' s access to Europe's businesses -- just because they can. Although I am not so sure that Germany wants that poison chalice, although I am sure that France would -- I wonder what Investment banking looks like with a 35 hours work week? (just saying...)
This morning I read Abrose Evans-Prichard, who just two weeks ago said in his weekly column that the departure of the UK would be very expensive.…

Paris ville des lumières

Also it turns out, European cup 2016, air France strike, SNCF strike, and strike by the garbage men.  The view a few blocks from where I am just doesn't convey the lovely odor!  Let me just say, that while Paris' terrasses were a pain because of the number of smokers, this is something else entirely...

Let me just say, I am almost glad to be here only for a few days!

David Rossenberg: Zero chance of a US recession within the next 12 months

DR was first know as a Permabear -- always seeing that the investment world was about to collapse, and yet -- well it kind of did in 2008...  Anyway DR has a 106 slide that explain while the US econonmy is not doing great its not really sinking down the drain, its just not perfming so well.  One of the early slides says:

Conventional wisdom (Prediction for June 2016, made in June 2105)

Fed Funds:  1.25%  [0.37%]

10 year T-note at 3.0% [1.7125%]

Oil Prices at $75    [$50]

S&P at 2233 [2117]

CAD at US$ 86.2  [0.78]

The [xxx] is the actual number as of today!

So Fed funds and the T-notes has been a big one; firstly the Federal reserves sets interest rates largely with the Fed funds, this is actually a figure that can be controlled (no so with the T-notes).  Both are tied at the hip (the reality is that the relationship between long term money and ultra short term money is imperfect -- but the short term money is indicating loosey goosey that translates into lower long term yield.