Skip to main content

So life goes on. Two weeks of Trump

you've got to hand it to Trump; he has managed in less then 2 weeks to pissoff Mexico, China, Germany, France, and the Uk.  Plus to add more fun he's manage to pissoff the takes some effort to achieve that level of success.

So far he's made the Canadians happy; by reopening NAFTA (to teach the Mexicans a lesson I guess) and Israel.  The Canadians cannot believe their good luck...they've been furious as virtually every single car plant in Canada has been shut, and Canada has a large trade deficit with the US -- a real opportunity for the solf lumber industry and some of Canada's dairy producers that have been kept out of the US market.  Trump must had wondered what all that cheering was when he starts his little fight with the Mexicans!  As for Israel, they were best buds until Israel pointed out that moving the Embassy to Jerusalem was maybe not the best idea, and then that add insult to injury the right wing press (in Israel) have been saying unkind things about Trump.

Yes Trump is a special guy, who will go down in the history books as a guy with a massive ego, who know nothing about the constitution or the separation of power.  I have no idea how long he will last, already the crazy wing of the GOP wants him to abolish the ACA without a replacement (freedom caucus but also the mean wing of the GOP), talking of impeachment! It's been two weeks, feels like much longer.



Popular posts from this blog

Trucker shortage? No a plan to allow driverless rigs

There are still articles on how America is running out of truckers -- and that its a huge problem, except its not a problem, if it was a problem salaries would rise to so that demand would clear. Trucking is one of those industry where the vast majority of participants are owner/operators and therefore free agents.

Salaries and cost are extremely well know, "industry" complains that there are not enough truckers, yet wages continue to fall... Therefore there are still too many truckers around, for if there was a shortage of supply prices would rise, and they don't.

What there is though is something different; there is a push to allow automatic rigs to "operate across the US", so to encourage the various authorities to allow self driving rigs you talk shortage and hope that politicians decided that "Well if people don't want to work, lets get robots to do the work" or words to that effect.

This has nothing to do with shortage of drivers, but every…

Every punter says oil prices are on the rise: Oil hits $48/bbl -- lowest since September 2016

What the hell?

How could this be, punters, advisors, investment bankers all agreed commodity prices  in general and oil prices in particular are on the rise...its a brave new era for producers and exporters -- finally the world is back and demand is going through the roof, except not so much!

What happened?  Well energy is complicated, the world operates in a balance -- 30 days of physical reserves is about all we've got (seriously) this is a just in time business.  So the long term trend always gets hit by short term variations.

Global production over the past 12 months has risen by somewhat less than 1.5% per annum.  As the world market changes production becomes less energy intensive (maybe), but the reality is that the world is growing more slowly -- America Q4 GDP growth was around 1.9% (annualized) Europe is going nowhere fast (the GDP growth in Germany is overshadowed by the lack of growth in France, Italy, Spain (lets say 27 Euro members generated a total GDP growth of 1.2…

Paying for research

This morning I was reading that CLSA -- since 2013 proudly owned by CITIC -- was shutting down its American equity research department -- 90 people will be affected!

Now the value of a lot of research is limited, that is not to say that all research is bad. In fact, I remember that GS's Asia Aerospace research was considered the bible for the sector.  Granted, there was little you could do with the research since the "buy" was for Chinese airlines...that were state owned.  Still it was a vey valuable tool in understanding the local dynamics.  It seems that the US has introduced new legislation that forces brokers to "sell" their research services!  Figures of $10,000 an hour have been mentioned...

Now, research can be sold many times; if GS has 5000/6000 clients they may sell the same research 300x or 400x (I exaggerate) but this is the key -- Those who buy the research are, I presume, prohibited from giving it away or selling it, at the same time the same rese…