Skip to main content

Secrets

So the President decided to share top secret information with the Russians, so far nothing illegal has been done, stupid maybe, but not illegal, literally the President decides what is and what is not secret. That's the positive side -- there is no crime here!

Now the negative;

(1) If the Post's story is correct (note: Trump confirmed that it was) this secret information was given to the American intelligence community -- with a do not share request.  That country will now reduce the amount of information it shares with the American government.  At the very least the NSA/CIA and other acronyms will be much more careful it what they share with the President.  That's bad, because less information is bad -- especially when people are out to get you.

(2) Trump asked three of his future ex-employees to go out on and say that Trump did not share any secret information -- and that the Post got the story wrong...12 hours later Trump tweets that "it's true, I shared confidential information -- and its not a crime".  This is the second time in two weeks that Trump makes his surrogates look like complete idiots.  That's not good because these people were betrayed by their boss -- for no good reason.

(3) Another manufactured "own goal" by Trump -- how many does this guy need.  First, Trump is like rich kid who broke a window -- accuses everyone else, and when confronted with the evidence that it was him says:  It doesn't matter its my window.  Why lie? Trump could fire Comley for any reason (or no reasons) but choose to say it was about Clinton...He reveals secret information to the Russians then denies, denies and denies, and they quickly confirms and says:  Its not a crime, I am the President!

(4)  The GOP is in a bit of trouble, it cannot drop the president.  In fact, history has shown that parties will support their president to the bitter end.  Its true for Clinton, Reagan and Nixon -- in all three cases the party of the President went down with the president.  The mid terms are going to be brutal for the GOP -- even in gerrymandering land its going to be ugly -- by 2018 GOP's America will have discovered that their health care costs have tripled, if available at all.   The truth of the GOP's health care reform is that its a huge tax giveaway to America's richest...  You cannot shave $800 billion without people's healthcare being affected, simple math.

(5) Manufactured crisis by the President are exhausting, and what will he do when a real crisis occurs -- what will be his Katrina?  How will he react -- my guess is a weekend at a golf resort, but I am a cynic!

Finally, the most important is that nothing will change the GOP's position towards Trump.  If history is any yardstick in none of the cases: Nixon, Clinton, Reagan, did the party in power walk away from its President.  There will be no investigation of Russia links, there will be no investigation of corruption, there will be no invest of anything that Trump did aside from an investigation in those who leek information from the White House.

For Trump the real problem is who will want to work for him.  He casually throws his surrogates to the wolfs for no good reason or any valuable real estate.  He values loyalty above competence (remember Bush) but for Trump its a one way street -- and a short street at that.  My guess, is that on his return from his foreign trip Trump will undertake a major shift in the White House staff, to replace his communication team, and several of his advisors (lookout Pribus and Steve!).  He's not getting what he wants -- so he will find it elsewhere!

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Trucker shortage? No a plan to allow driverless rigs

There are still articles on how America is running out of truckers -- and that its a huge problem, except its not a problem, if it was a problem salaries would rise to so that demand would clear. Trucking is one of those industry where the vast majority of participants are owner/operators and therefore free agents.

Salaries and cost are extremely well know, "industry" complains that there are not enough truckers, yet wages continue to fall... Therefore there are still too many truckers around, for if there was a shortage of supply prices would rise, and they don't.

What there is though is something different; there is a push to allow automatic rigs to "operate across the US", so to encourage the various authorities to allow self driving rigs you talk shortage and hope that politicians decided that "Well if people don't want to work, lets get robots to do the work" or words to that effect.

This has nothing to do with shortage of drivers, but every…

Every punter says oil prices are on the rise: Oil hits $48/bbl -- lowest since September 2016

What the hell?

How could this be, punters, advisors, investment bankers all agreed commodity prices  in general and oil prices in particular are on the rise...its a brave new era for producers and exporters -- finally the world is back and demand is going through the roof, except not so much!

What happened?  Well energy is complicated, the world operates in a balance -- 30 days of physical reserves is about all we've got (seriously) this is a just in time business.  So the long term trend always gets hit by short term variations.

Global production over the past 12 months has risen by somewhat less than 1.5% per annum.  As the world market changes production becomes less energy intensive (maybe), but the reality is that the world is growing more slowly -- America Q4 GDP growth was around 1.9% (annualized) Europe is going nowhere fast (the GDP growth in Germany is overshadowed by the lack of growth in France, Italy, Spain (lets say 27 Euro members generated a total GDP growth of 1.2…

Paying for research

This morning I was reading that CLSA -- since 2013 proudly owned by CITIC -- was shutting down its American equity research department -- 90 people will be affected!

Now the value of a lot of research is limited, that is not to say that all research is bad. In fact, I remember that GS's Asia Aerospace research was considered the bible for the sector.  Granted, there was little you could do with the research since the "buy" was for Chinese airlines...that were state owned.  Still it was a vey valuable tool in understanding the local dynamics.  It seems that the US has introduced new legislation that forces brokers to "sell" their research services!  Figures of $10,000 an hour have been mentioned...

Now, research can be sold many times; if GS has 5000/6000 clients they may sell the same research 300x or 400x (I exaggerate) but this is the key -- Those who buy the research are, I presume, prohibited from giving it away or selling it, at the same time the same rese…