Farmer Diaries

Mexican industrial investments in renewable energ ies , like private micro-grids , wind/solar farms supported by storage infrastructure such as batteries are economically justifiable investment decisions by the owners and CEOs.  The economics of solar at less than $0.015 /Wh make them a far more efficient, but timing-sensitive technology – today new affordable green and long-lasting storage is available – efficient and price competitive A few weeks ago t he Mexican government confirmed its intention to focus on coal and oil fired power plants reducing the role of renewable “disruptive” energies like solar and wind power , because of perceived grid instability.  The government cited the  coronavirus  pandemic as a justification for new rules that will prevent businesses to use the grids to transport renewables.  This announced shift is not anything new, since within the fine lines in the 2018 published   Prodesen 2019-2033 development progra...

Markets have been on a tear over the past few days, taking back virtually all the losses of March, the reason is simple, Quantitative Easing:  the truth is for the past 6 years the correlation between the market rise and quantitative easing has been 97%. The algos got the message, when the government pumps liquidity the markets rise, independently of what the economy is actually doing.  Unemployment at a 30 year high, markets rise, Neman Marcus bankruptcy markets rise.  The truth is that market is no longer a predictor of anything but that the government is pumping liquidity; for Trump, it has been a sign of his success -- and therefore a good thing.  It has for the past few years been a given that rising market are a sign of good economic health -- don't let the main street get in the way of the message. The truth is that as of today, the average p/e is around 20x  (an all-time higher).  The truth is that earnings guidance has been poor for the past ...

Total losses for the global airline industry, so far, is around US$ 100 billion -- with the prediction that the total could be as high as US$ 330 billion for 2020. There is a real "shift" in the business model; Lufthansa, Air France, and Alitalia are all getting state support in the form of a 15% to 25% capital injection.  Alitalia is always getting free stuff.  British Airways may also get help, but the non-state players not so much (Virgin).  South African Airways is back into the African Chapter 11 (actually its the 6th time that SAA has gone bust). Numbers show airlines cutting capacity with Singapore 97% cut incapacity, and at the low range, North America with a 60% cut in capacity. In terms of aircraft, the biggest losers are the A380/A340 and B747 -- many of those aircraft are gone for good.  The future would seem to favor the 787/777 and A350 -- the biggest winner will probably be the 737 and A320 -- but there is a dark dark cloud over the 737MAX -- n...