Farmer Diaries

The greatest challenge for farmers is the rise in input costs.   Fertilizers and seeds double and tripled in price over the past 4 years.   Granted, it has improved to some degree, but the introduction of reduced fertilizer rules is certain to harm yields, and now that the EU has backed down, only British farmers are facing this existential crisis.   Our farm is unaffected, because we employ organic methods, and we have not seen any changes to our production regime.  Our first quarter produced results above what they were for the same period in 2023, March prices were somewhat lower than anticipated, but only 50% of our produce production is impacted by the market.  The sauces, pie, baby food and other ancillary activities have seen improved profit performance, mainly because of economies of scale and better production methods.   All our third-party input costs have risen by more than the average inflation rate, but overall our activities generated far higher return on deployed capital

 So our youngest son just bought a rather exotic car, I will not name the brand, it's not young about 12 years old, and it was not too expensive.   It is also a hybrid, you can drive about 50 miles on the batteries, and then the engine kicks in.   Our son paid somewhere around 12,000 pounds. When it was on, I was an occasional fan of Top Gear, and I remember how the three hosts were gushing about this car.   Honestly, I owned cars in 2012, and this particular car compared poorly against an average BMW or my wife's Mercedes.   Now I get the rarety angle, I understand the attraction of having one of 550 of the type in the UK, but the damn thing should still be good, even if it was a very expensive car then.   The ride is just ok, for a "sports car" it handles like an underpowered Ford, the controls are non-intuitive, and were at best "working with some prodding".  Worse yet the electric system needs an occasional re-set, like an old desktop computer. Now. all

 To say that April has been rainy would be an understatement.  we are really behind schedule now for spring planting.   The weather remains unseasonably cold, and our high tunnels continue to need heating at night.   I have no idea what other farmers are doing, too busy dealing with ours.   There is one thing for certain, drought will not be a problem this year.  Every single reservoir or river is full to the rim, and the ground is saturated as we have never seen it.   On the bright side, at least for farmers, revenues are up.   I have no idea what the government's game is anymore.  The additional control for perishable goods is only making prices rise in the UK.   I have no idea what they are trying to prove, tomatoes from Spain remain unchanged for the past two decades. One thing we did notice is the average size of tractors being sold in the UK is rising, which tells me that average farm size is also rising.  You need a bigger tractor to pull heavier implements.   Both the corn

What a week! To say that the weather would not cooperate would be the understatement of the decade.    It has been cold and very wet for the past few weeks, we are still heating our high tunnels, a first for us in April, where usually it is far warmer.    We were successful between the bouts of rain we planted all the crops for the summer, and the damp soil will probably help their seed propagation.   Our chicks are still in the heated shed because it's simply too cold to put them out.  We hope that by the end of next week, it will be better. Spring is always busy on a farm, the goats have been producing kids and the whole process has been followed by the entire farm with interest.  Now that the Muslim holidays are over, our meat processing plant is back at full capacity.   A few pigs and a whole lot of beef will be processed in the coming weeks.  We are also doing some contract work for several local farmers.   It is more convenient for them, and it uses up available resources for

Well colour me pink, but I have to say that Liz is certainly original in adopting wholesale US republican party ideology as something that is missing in the United Kingdom.  Let's be clear to play the offended virgin when the Tories have been wheeling the stick for the better part of the last 12 years, is a bit rich. Granted Liz's vision of conservativism is far far to the right.  She was always attractive to the lunatic fringe and did well, even got nominated as Prime Minister until the MP realized that she was a little nuts.  But, to this day, she remains popular with the grassroots.  Her favourite constituents are those who both complain about passport controls when they go to the continent and yet are firm supporters of shutting our borders.   The rest was a blueprint from an American born-again Christian right who seems to be unable to understand anything in the bible...granted that is not really how it works here but in Liz's febrile mind it is the blueprint she choos

 Our pork operations are going well, piglets are putting on the pounds and several sows are carrying new broods.   The impact of rooting and clearing out the underbrush has been amazing.   The pigs are very efficient at showing rubbish tips created by farmers over the centuries.   We think that we will need to cul some of the hurd in July, as the numbers of litters is impressive. Our first forest chickens are now in their own enclosure.  We don't see much of them, there is only about 80 chickens, 20 ducks, and four geese, but over time... The planting began this morning.   

A pregnant woman was rushed to the emergency room after a car accident, the new abortion laws have been enacted in this particular State, and the hospital lawyers sent an emergency request to the State's superior court for an injunction to operate on the pregnant woman, to help her survive the trauma, within 48 hours the hospital got the ruling that they were authorized to operate on the woman (99% certainty that the fetus would not survive -- hence the ruling), the mother in law's lawyers got an injunction to stop the operation, 24 hours later the court agreed with the lower court, but by then both mother and child had died. The short-term impact, the legal dispute cost about $50,000 in legal fees and processing, (both the original emergency request and the injunction).   But the hospital and the doctor were in the clear as they had sought permission from the courts, the family lost both mother and child and also got a nice emergency room bill for about $240,000.    I hear abo

 For all the big news in the papers, it's easy to forget that the Times, the Telegraph, the Daily Mail and the Guardian have a total readership of less than 10 million.   Many may glance at the political news but unless they are directly affected, pay little attention.  Some will know the name or party of their locally elected official, many will not, and a large percentage would be hard-pressed to name the prime minister.  That is the reality of the political news cycle.    The Tories are in trouble not only because of people like me, but because many Tories are furious that Brexit occurred, and that so many within the party were clearly carpetbaggers.   Speaking of carpetbagger, Boris was in the Canadian colonies recently talking to a bunch of conservatives, and one of the core components of his speech was that the Conservatives should have a green policy....outrageous! Seriously, I was at a pub last week, and one of the farmers was talking about "Boris this and Boris that&q

Two unrelated issues; the first is the passage (every two years) of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978.  Trump is against this law and said so clearly and eloquently on numerous occasions.   It is a fundamental tool of the US foreign spying operations, and Trump wanted it revoked.   Trump did not get his way, and in a non-partisan vote, the law passed by the House of Representatives and is on its way to the Senate, there is little doubt that the law will be approved there too.   A real blow to Trump, who had actively and strongly argued against the law. The second is that this morning, Iran seized an Israeli-related ship in the Gulf of Hormuz.   This is the first direct confrontation between Israel and Iran in a few years, both nations have hated each other for nearly 70 years which presents Israel with an incredible opportunity to change the narrative .   Iran is actively attacking Israel, effectively declaring war (not exactly but close).  The current narrative is that

There are two types of nations, Continental and Maritime.   China is a continental power, its strength is its army.  The three most obvious naval nations are Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.   All three live behind "sea moats".   The old India (which included Pakistan and Bangladesh was similar, although they are now a continental power but they were surrounded by moats (in the case of India the Himalayan mountain range).  Of course, the reason Pakistan and Bangladesh were created was to remove the parts that were not inside the nation, creating one of the world's most volatile borders.    Continental and Maritime nations are fundamentally different, the first is an empire, outsiders are brought in, often against their will, to provide a buffer from invading armies.   It worked for the Han Chinese and the ethnic Russians for centuries -- the current problems in Russia are not new, and the same is true for China.  In its 3,000 years of recorded history, abo

To those who read my commentaries please understand that this is a one-way conversation, largely with myself.  I have no axe to grind or agenda.   There are never any comments posted to my page, which is a choice you are welcome to send me comments and sometimes I read them, other times not so much.   If you are rude, I will try to block you.  But again, I would say that I read comments once a month, at best.  The last comments I read were in early February.    Why, again this is not a dialogue, it is a monologue, my blog my choice.  Also my subject, sure some of you are fascinated by the fall of China.   China is not falling it is declining, not the same thing.   China is doing what Britain did after 1945, sinking into irrelevance.  The stuff I talk about is bad, but outside of China, it impacts no one.    I am very glad to see that a few hundred of you like to read what I post.  I am glad that I provided you with entertainment and some good ideas.   The funniest comments were about B

You cannot invest the long cycle!   The market will always beat you.   The proper valuation for assets cannot always resolve itself in the short term, and as an investor, you cannot afford to wait out the market.   These are simple truths drilled into every single portfolio manager.    The one market where this contrarian view of the world did not hold was the hedge fund market, and we now know that either luck, insider trading or even subtle pushes were how they made their money, plus massive leverage.  But hedge funds are of no interest to me. When Nixon began opening to China, no one could predict the long-term impact on capital allocation and how profits in Western companies would explode from using cheap Chinese (or Asian) labour.   These trends were transitory, the China play is long over.   Wages are high and the only reason to remain in China is the invested physical plant, plus the still massive labour force. As a strategist, my job was to see the medium-term trends.   I start

Let's be honest, the Tories are done for the next few years.  Give Labour a decade to screw things up.   The party needs to move away from the post-Brexit conversation.   The deal is done, and the damage is obvious to everyone.   So it is time (ok maybe after the election) for the party to rethink what it means to be a Tory and what it means to be British. The British empire ended definitely in Egypt when the Americans told us to stay away in 1967.   We were told clearly that our interference was not desired.   We were no longer the bosses -- although we knew it, it was the first time when it was stated so obviously. So what are Tory values, the great privatization of Maggie Thatcher was somewhat successful.  Out of it we got an electricity company that actually did its job, the same for natural gas and railways, although that last one took a very long time.  Still private capital decided how the economy would function,   The only group remaining is the postal service, and in this

 It seems that today will be wall maintenance day for me and two fellows.   The farm has several dry stone walls, and this winter has caused some damage, as have rambles that insist on sitting on our walls and often damage them.   They also suffer from wind, rain and the elements.  This morning we repaired two sections about 15 feet each, and noted two damaged gates, rust mostly so they will have to be removed and repaired or replaced.    on a day like today, it's enjoyable work, we are finally in warmer weather which makes the work very pleasant and the soil is relatively dry.  I keep track of damages because it always occurs on farms, we had several trees fall on wire fences that will have to be cut and removed.   One of our neighbours has a sawmill and is always looking for more trees, he also processes firewood.  The one thing we do on the farm is process the branches, we use a tractor-powered chipper.   A farm is in constant need of wood chips, and what we don't use we sel

There is rarely serious news in the world these days, it seems that most newspapers are filled with headlines and little else, and then Ms Yellen went to China.  Secretary Yellen has long been known in the Biden administration as the voice of moderation when dealing with China, yet as her trip which concluded yesterday a hawk was born:  She warned the Chinese against dumping goods in the United States.    fighting words! The American administration is very concerned about the lack of Chinese domestic consumption.   Even before the COVID-19 epidemic, there were already the beginning signs of a slowdown, automobile sales were off.   China is facing domestic deflation (a clear sign of collapsing demand) China imports few consumer goods, they import raw materials and intermediary goods.   It seems that the American administration is concerned that the Chinese administration will dump consumer goods abroad to keep its manufacturing machinery functioning (Greentech, automobiles etc). This is

China has many limitations, a vast territory and limited infrastructure outside the largest cities.  Therefore, sometimes fundamental statistical errors creep up in the system.   Errors crop out all over the place, I don't want to imply that global warming is not a thing, I believe the contrary, but, when you see a North American glacier that has been shrinking since the early 19th century as proof of global warming, you have a data problem. The Chinese have a similar problem, instead of counting the number of children born, they rely on two data points, reported live births by doctors, midwives and hospitals as a first data point, and the number of BCG vaccines administered -- this vaccine is given to every single child born in China within 3 days of birth.   That way, the statistical office has confirmed data points. What the statisticians didn't expect was that there are substantial incentives to corrupt that data, what doctors have done over the past 20 years is split the B

The farmer's dilemma is always the same, is it too early to plant?  The past few days when Britain was again soaked to the bone is another indicator that it is too early to sow, but the Met Office has indicated that within 10 days we should have a heat wave...our area of planting is relatively small, about 400 acres for corn (sillage for the milk cows) and about the same for wheat (A new crop for us) the balance of the land is a mixture of pasture for the cattle and fields for hay and other grasses to feed the cattle during the winter months. You don't want to plant when it is raining, clumping and risk of fungus, but you don't want to plant in the scorching heat.   So the decision has been made, planting for both Wheat and corn will start tomorrow, we are expecting at least four days of sunshine and relatively warm weather, followed by a few days of rain.  Our soil is sufficiently dry now, so we should be ok. Always a risk!

When we acquired the farm, we began the process of demolishing all the old structures that were to be kind in poor condition.   One step was to bury all the concrete and non-compostable material.  Our digger operator made a comment about the soil composition in our farm yard, that we had topsoil of two feet and then clay for 10 and then loose gravel.   When it came time to build the new farm buildings we consulted with a hydraulic engineer who recommended that we have a very deep rainwater catchment system.  In the past rainwater would be dealt with shallow pits, but with our soil composition that was not a good solution, so instead we built very deep water cisterns that would percolate the water below the clay.   The result is that we hardly ever have humidity problems in our buildings.   The weather for the past 24 hours has been challenging.  Granted compared to what they got on the West and South Coasts we have been largely fine, but it remains that heavy downpours every few weeks

Last week, we had a strange visit to the farm.   An American firm approached us to sell our butter in the US in ultra-high-end shops.   We did see such supermarkets in the US but did not pay attention.  Now, 100% of our butter is for the restaurant trade, it was created to compete with the best butters in the business.  Our butter is not sold on price but on quality.    So this US company (Jennifer spoke to them) came to us and asked if we would sell them our butter with a 50% discount so that we could "penetrate the US market".  We have no appetite for developing foreign markets, especially in the butter segment, because we already do not meet domestic market demand.  In addition, they are asking for us to cut our sales price by half, effectively selling the butter at a loss.    Their solution was to cut input costs to raise profits, in other words, destroy what has been our product's value proposition.   To enter into a market that offers no attraction.   Needless to sa

 I had to write this, my third commentary on Trump's media company, with revenues of $4.1 million and net losses of $59 million.   Nothing original, a basic carbon copy of X.   Bottom line it's Trump's personal soapbox, and little more.  Famously Barry Diller said that DJT was a scam for idiots.   The stock peaked on opening day at $71, it's at $36 now.   Let's be clear that is still an outrageous valuation for a company that not only appears to be losing members but has revenues of $4.1 million and a valuation of $4.9 billion, it's still probably $4,899 billion too much.  The stock has no business being worth even that amount.   I heard that the cost of borrowing the stock is about $28 for the year, that's the cost of borrowing the stock.   That means that the stock would have to fall by 1.4% per day to cover just the borrowing cost.  Very expensive. Note:   The cost of shorting DJT stock means there is virtually no short interest, it's too expensive. 

That is all it took, we did not need any planning permission, since the plans had long ago been submitted and there was no exterior work on the building.    The plumber and electrician informed me this morning, just before lunchtime that the apartment had passed its final inspection by the county.  This means the heating and the electricity can be officially turned on.   Until now it was not fully connected.   The new tenants (aka my daughter, granddaughter and her future husband) are moving after school ends this summer.  Our future son-in-law will use a room in our new London apartment for the summer to finish his term at the hospital.  He will be in London five days a week and come up during weekends, this will only last a few months.    The daycare centre is moving along quickly, there is a lot of work, and the standards are exacting, which we expected.  We are still on track to open by the end of summer, assuming no disaster, but we don't anticipate anything, the building was

Politicians see the world as they want not as it is, as a function of their role in society, talk to a Torie or a Labour MP and they will take of the same event from two different perspectives because they fundamentally talk to different audiences.   The issue is less problematic in the UK than in other countries but it is the nature of the beast.   There is talk of encouraging farmers to be greener and to use green energy.  All fine and dandy but cows have to be milked barns have to be cooled during the hot summer months to help the animals and they have to be fed.  It always amazes me when people come to the farm and are surprised at how much hay a cow consumes in a day (12 kg in winter).  Milk cows consume sillage and not hay (30kg).     Homestead farms consume very little power, but consume a great deal of human labour.   A small family farm will have anywhere from 10 to 15 cows and maybe two or three milk cows, but the entire family plus some help will be required.   Our farm has

Whether the population of China is 1 billion or 1.4 billion is of little importance, what is important is the age bands.   Like Japan where the average age is now 50, which literally means that half the population is older than 50, 30% of the overall population is over 65 and retired.  No longer contributing to the economy.  They are consumers, not producers. The latest figure for China is that the total population is probably just North of 1 billion.   More seriously, the nearly 400 million who have been erased from the population census (again the figure for China is "mobile") were NOT born after 1985, when China introduced the one-child policy.   It gets worse, China has been for that entire period self-selecting gender via abortion, in favour of boys, which means that the shortage of women is now catastrophic, and women are choosing not to have children.  In large cities (and there are many) the reproduction rate is now officially below 0.7 (2.1 is the replacement level).

Apparently, residents of New Orleans are starting to have difficulty finding insurance for their homes.  What had until about two years ago been limited to California (forest fires) and Florida (Hurricanes) is now spreading to Louisiana. A friend at Lloyds told me recently what is happening.  The first to face real problems was California and its decision 15 years ago to no longer clear-cut near powerlines.  This, with the high heat and extreme drought, has caused billions in damages.  It took a while for the full impact of the shift away from clear-cutting to impact the insurance market, but it has been three years now since claims exceeded premiums.  Therefore, the syndicate's appetite for California has been very limited. Maybe American politicians want to downplay the importance of global warming, but it's the bread and butter of the insurance industry.  Their objective is to assess their financial risks.  The truth is that Florida has been a terrible risk for a long time,

 Politics is about money!   Raising it and spending to convince the people that your message resonates the best for their own interests.   In the US each candidate is responsible for the vast majority of his fundraising, the party contributes almost nothing, they provide logistical support and all kinds of things, but the candidates are responsible for all of it.  That process starts in the caucuses and other types of local voters choosing their candidate.  Part of the problem with that type of funding is that radicalism can really get in the way.  Right or left it doesn't matter because those who participate in the selection of the candidate are a minuscule subset of the electorate in each election.   So if you run in a deeply Republican district, there only people you have to convince are the more ardent supporters, the rest count for nothing.  There are seats in the US (UK too by the way) where less than 1% of the population decided on who will be their elected official. In the

Over the past few weeks, we have been away more than we have been around, for three reasons, unforeseen commitment, the off-season and finally Jennifer.  The point of having a farm manager is for her to take over the day-to-day management of the farm.  In the past few weeks, she has hired an assistant, because otherwise she doesn't get out of the office.  The way of managing a farm is to be present, available and an observer.  If something looks to be done wrong, question, ascertain and then suggest a plan to change the procedure to something more efficient.    There are too many variables on a farm, so even old farmers are always trying something new, moreover, there are so many technical improvements that it's worth the effort.  We spent almost £ 20,000 to test the soil on the new farm.  We knew where the soil was good, where it was nutrient-rich, where there was too much or too little moisture.  We knew it generally, now we know it exactly and there are remedial solutions in

Maybe I am a glutton for punishment, but since I got two dozen comments about what I wrote about Trump's Truth Social, I want to be clear, everything Trump touches only benefits Trump, what is amazing is that after all these years there are still suckers out there buying his crap. You buy that stock, it shows not that you are a Trump supporter but an idiot who doesn't understand how stocks work and what they are for.  The truth is that when you buy a stock you bet that the management knows what they are doing and that you are catching a ride on their coattails.   Trump in his entire business life has never had any coattails to share. If you buy it you are what is called a Piker --- look it up!

I mentioned some time ago, that my sister had willed me a block of flats in Belgravia.  To the non-Londoner, Belgravia is East of Kensington, south of Hyde Park and borders Buckingham Palace.   The four levels are more or less identical and are served by a lift, the ground-floor apartment has access to the garden at the back.   The apartment that my sister kept for her use is on the second floor, her children would use it from time to time apparently.  It's nice to have a pied-a-terre in London, although this is a lot grander than either my wife or I would have chosen, but it's a gift.  We will use it the same way my sister did.  Soon three of our four children will not live in London, so this will be perfect.  My wife even set up a shared Google calendar, so that we can coordinate.  With three bedrooms it should be fine.  My wife shared the calendar with my nephew and nieces for when they come to London.  Apparently only once or twice a year.  We would rather the place be used

 It is a document that shows farmers the benefit of employing women (not a problem in our operations).   We found the advice common sense, but then, my wife was always in charge of recruiting because our primary need was in the produce gardens and milking.   Neither job is "physically demanding"  which is not true at all, but in the scope of farm jobs, it can be defined as lifting and carrying smaller loads. Anyway, Level the field a guide to female friendly recruiting is an excellent tool

As the warmer weather begins to peak out, the chores of spring come to the forefront of our business.  Repairing field fencing now that the ground is more solid, although it still rains a lot is near completion.  We have three crews out this week fertilizing and tilling the land for its various uses (including wheat this year).   A good part of spring has been used to re-border the new farm's field, to make each pasture larger, and easier to work with our larger equipment. There will only be planting in late April or early May, it's too cold before that for germination.   Granted sitting in a tractor for 6 hours a day is not a lot of fun, but it's not disagreeable either.  The principal reason we are away in London this week is that Jennifer is in charge of it all, and has told us clearly that the workload is minimal this week (excluding the high tunnels which are working at usual levels).    The largest and most demanding part of the farm this week is the meat plant (aka t

 We had to spend some time in London this week.   mainly because of inheritance but there were other issues.  At one point, we were stranded in West London, rush hour and the rain made it difficult to get a taxi in a reasonable amount of time, so we took the Central Line.   Boy, I do not remember the tube to be so hot.   It was rainy and cold yesterday, but as we got down to the tracks it got warmer and warmer, to the point where we removed our overcoats.    I had not taken the tube in years, and certainly not the central line in more than two decades.   When we got to the flat, I checked.   It seems that the clay around the central line has reached maximum temperature and cannot absorb heat anymore.   I don't think this is global warming, but rather the consequence of running a subway in clay.   Still bloody hot

That anyone would be surprised by this news is unbelievable.  The Chinese government has forced all foreign companies that collect market and enterprise data to shut down.  This happened in early 2023, foreign investors who would normally consider China cannot invest because they don't have the information necessary to inform their boards of market conditions.  I was speaking to Peter my ex-colleague and he was telling me that the word has, for a year at least, that it's pointless to present Chinese investment deals because everyone knows you cannot convince the boards.   Well, the deals that were approved in 2022, and early 2023 have all been done now, what we are seeing is the death of investments because buyers and investors cannot get the necessary information. I repeat this twice because it strains credulity that this outcome has not been understood by the Chinese.   No one plays in the domestic bond market for the same reason, there's no data, and all foreigners have

The Sunday time put a number to the "feeling".  A survey of 15,000 voters gave Labour 468 seats (45% of the vote), Conservative 98, Scottish National Party 41, Liberal Democrats 22, and Reform 7.  Wales and Scotland are free of any Conservative MPs. It could have been worse.  There is no doubt that in my area the Tories will win, but with greatly reduced margins.   The two parties that lost the most in this poll are the Tories and the Liberal Democrats.  The Liberals would rise to 22 seats, which is bad considering the destruction of the Tories... The one that surprised me was the new Reform party which currently has one member in parliament.  That they get to 7 is strange considering their absolute devotion to Brexit.  Still, these were fascinating results.   

Granted, this debate only exists in the English language.   The French "vous" solves all the pronoun issues automatically, because it is already "they/them" which is kind of funny if you think about it.  The default of the French language makes no judgment about gender identity. I thought this was all bullshit anyway when my youngest daughter made a valid argument, that the language had to change in the 1970s and 1980s when women began to take dominant roles in business.  I can only imagine how a crusty old 50-year-old feel about addressing women in the office politely instead of calling them "doll" or "baby" or "honey", and being vocal about their physical attributes (yes it was a real problem apparently). The solution is simple, introduce a new gender-neutral pronoun.  The current solution that you should ask the person what is their preference is a great way to reduce interaction among strangers, because doing so, creates an impressi

 Revenues for March exceeded expectations.  We expected softness from our core business but demand and prices were robust far better than February.   We were about 7% higher than March (but did not compensate for the additional two days in the month).   Volume and prices both contributed.  In terms of volume production, it rose by 22% from February because the new high tunnels began producing, but 70% of the increase was absorbed, as planned, by our subsidiaries.    Our subsidiaries all saw increased volumes of output with steady prices.  The overall revenue increase has been about 15% month over month which we consider abnormal, but was the result of a series of confluent events outside of our control.   We don't expect to see such an increase going forward, but the rise is permanent, so not a "one-off".   Total revenues for the farm were 14% higher, and net profits were 16% higher than in February.  Again, within the margin of our budget and plan.  The one figure that w

So Today, Easter Monday, the company released its full-year financials.  total revenues of $4 million and profits (actually losses) of $58 million.  Like all stocks that are held by air, the price fell on the news, by 24%.  None of that activity was short interest, it is not yet possible to short the stock, so that was "real" interest, sellers decided that the news was even worse than they anticipated because for the 9 months, Truth Social made $3.5 million in revenues, and in the last quarter only $0.5 million...the implication is that revenues were front-loaded (you can do that) or interest by users had dropped (which is also possible).  No one knows, the market is too thin to say anything.  Extrapolating Q4 revenues means that they will drop in 2024 by half --- again this is meaningless.   The company is still worth something like $4 billion. As for the future, it is hard to say where the stock will go, tomorrow it could be up 30%, and that's the problem with Meme stoc

You have to do it for the love of the process.   It is not a business.   My future son-in-law is storing an older vehicle mostly in parts, to eventually complete the restoration.  From what I saw, there are years of work, he could buy an excellent identical model for a few pounds, and yet he insists that fixing it is 90% of the fun.  I agree with him. For me renovating the 1972 Land Rover was an act of love, my father had bought it new, and so, it had some meaning.   The first renovation I did before going to University, then it sat for about 15 years unused.  When we bought the farm, I had no time, so I sent it to a specialized shop that made it better than new.   It is not cheap to run, but distances are short.  It's a workhorse on the farm, I use it almost every day in every condition because it's light and has an excellent drive train (when it works).    Our eldest daughter thinks it's stupid, and I suspect that my wife largely agrees.  We actually have been talking abo

 Just a thought How would a Muslim country react to a pro-Israel demonstration on Eid Al-Fitr or Eid Al-Adha?  Now I am not for anything on that fight, what Hamas did was unspeakable what Israel is doing to Gaza is genocide, BUT I was watching the news yesterday, and a group of people (they were not identified) were demonstrating on Easter Sunday for Palestine.   My thought process was, how would a Muslim country react if someone did this in their country (again "their country is fluid") but let's take any generic Muslim country.   I would hazard to guess that it would not end quietly or peacefully, and I would be surprised if anyone disagrees. My point is that we have freedom of expression in the Western world. Of course, we are not perfect, and we are probably the only place where such demonstrations can occur --- still, and I am not particularly religious, I was offended that on this day, they would do such a thing.  To me, it shows that they do not care about our trad

 In 2014 Boeing's market cap was $91 billion.  It was the best-known aircraft manufacturer and had an impressive reputation.  The B747 was still selling and the A380 was proving to be an expensive failure.  The aircraft manufacturer was sailing high in the wind.  Then the company decided to change its future and become market-driven.  Share prices that had hovered around $100 rose to $420 in 2019.  A very successful strategy Wall Street and investors were happy as clams.  The word was good until the B737MAX and all the faults occurred.  In 2014, Boeing was sitting on a massive order book and had a great reputation.  All the way to today Boeing's share price is $192.  Nearly double what it was in 2014, market capitalization of $100 billion more or less where it was in 2014.  The BIG difference is its future; the order book is dry, the B737 is still a troubled child and even the 787 is in trouble, and to add to the trouble its reputation among pilots is in tatters. Despite all th

Shockingly, Donald Trump is still able to find legal representation, because the corpse of all the lawyers that have represented him in the past is knee-deep.  It is truly astounding how many have lost their law license over the years. I asked my wife because I was never an officer of the court.  But what she said is that lawyers are held to higher standards, and if they are found to have lied in court for their client they can be in a great deal of trouble.  As stupid as giving the client an alibie all the way to fabricating or at least representing false information. A lawyer will never accept a client's statement at face value, he will never represent that a client has done A or B, he will find other not officers of the court to say this or that.  What Trump has succeeded in doing over the year is to change his lawyers into co-conspirators.  This has happened many times over the years, but now with his legal problems especially all these lawyers who made false representations ab

An ex-colleague is of Venezuelan origin.  He was born there, but left in his early 20s to study in the US.  Although he wanted to return home, there was never a real opportunity when he started his career, he was soon hired by my ex-firm, he is a few years younger than me, but worked for me.  I really nice and smart guy.  Going back was never really an option.  His parents lived half and half between the US and Venezuela so when Chavez took power, they never returned and still live in Florida. We were discussing failed states, after my short write-up on South Africa, I have important ties with that country.   We discussed Venezuela, according to the government the economy is doing well (GDP growth of 5%) and everything is all right. On the ground things are different.  Daily power cuts and water cuts are standard.  Unless you work for the government you no longer have a refrigerator, generators were confiscated about two years ago.  Having anything frozen is too risky.  The exodus has

So, Westminster Council put a nice splash to celebrate Ramadan (which, by the way, is NOT a celebration, it's the equivalent of lent), Eid al-Fitr IS a holiday, Islam's second most important one (at the end of Ramadan)...  So when wishing a good Ramadan is like wishing "a good lent to Catholics"...Tone deff much?  Yeah, Westminster is run by Labour, my favourite kind, the lazy ignorant ones.  BTW, no trace of "happy Easter holidays" for Westminster Council until the very last minute.   That's racism.  I know it sounds as if it's trying to reach out, but it's really lazy comments about "other people we really don't care about" You know why? Because a 5-minute search on the internet will tell you everything you need to know about Ramadan.   Finally, guess where I heard this, yes from the foreman of our meat processing plant, I walked in yesterday afternoon, because he had called me about some issue he wanted to discuss.  When I arrive

First, believe nothing of what you read in the newspapers, about Harry and Megan.  Trust only facts.  First, the king is still pissed with Harry, and the latest (and unnecessary) move to strike Harry's family from the Royal biography is at best petty at worse...well Andrew is still there! There is no doubt that Harry would like to spend some time in the UK, it is after all his home.  He spent several years defending it, and he has a real and profound attachment to the place.  Their departure from the Royal merry-go-round occurred through a series of accidents.  Harry and Megan wanted to dramatically reduce their role as royals, first because a lot of it is meaningless ribbon cutting and Megan discovered that the royal family really didn't like her very much.  The initial idea was to cut 90% of their royal duties and no longer count on the British government's patronage.  Basically, they would continue to represent the Queen but would do this as unpaid work.   The Queen and

For some obscure reason, I still get invited to Tory functions.  Don't ask me why, it seems that getting off these lists is harder than getting off the list of telemarketers.  So the county has some border issues, nothing dramatic but it has been dragging for quite some time, and every year or so, our local MP decides that this time, he will do something about it.  So he said two weeks ago! This is where it gets funny, he made this commitment just before the last election, and has, in fact, made it a local party commitment.   It was even on his old website...it was in his own words, an important priority. Guess what he has not done!  You got it in one, the boundary problem is there there.  Granted it's been like that for a while really.  The problem, we think, started around 1925, so are looking at nearly a century of false promises. If it were not so funny, it would be sad.

A cold Thursday, the weather here and in Strasbourg are nearly identical.  Our meat chickens have started arriving, they are coming in batches of 200 every few weeks (we actually pick them up from the hatchery).  More important the house is being readied for all the important guests...our children.  The whole lot, begin arriving this afternoon.  Our youngest daughter arrived this morning on the 11 am train, just in time for lunch.  She came "without her boyfriend"  as any father knows you don't ask questions about absent boyfriends...you rely on your wife for that task.  Our eldest daughter is arriving tonight with our precious granddaughter and her fiancee, that they were both able to be off this weekend is a treat.  Their new lodgings here at the house are about ready, the permanent heating system and electricity have yet to be finalized, and an inspection or two are still required, to obtain the residency permit (I know it makes no sense, but it's an insurance thin

 Monday was gloomy and cold in Strasbourg where my sister's funeral took place.  The Church and the cemetery were fine, as such a thing can be.  It was a sad day, The funny stories over dinner were forgotten, and many expressed how much they missed her and her humour.  The reception at their house afterwards was sad.  It was a long day, we went to the Airbnb we had rented and had a nice family dinner.  Our son and two daughters were there as well as their spouses.  The children flew home on Tuesday, there's a single direct flight to Gatwick.  We were sticking around for a while. (note: our second son could not leave -- he's in military school). Today, just after lunch, my nephews and nieces their spouses and my wife and I went to the notary's office as we had been directed for the reading of the will.  I asked my eldest nephew if he had any idea, but he didn't.  It was one of the first things that was cleared up.   My sister was gifting me a block of flats in Belgra

As we are still in France for a day or two, we saw the news from the Elysee Palace that France was sending troops to Ukraine.  What was interesting was the type of troops being sent a combination of military observers and maintenance people.   You figure that out when you dig deeper and find out what units are being deployed. It makes perfect sense, the Ukrainians have developed truly amazing new tools of war, the recent attack on Russian oil and gas refineries speaks not only of the distance they have reached but the portability and control they can exercise.  This is truly a game changer, in addition, their amazingly cheap and successful waterborne guided drones are a truly inspired solution.  For less than $30,000 the Ukrainians have transformed jetskis into guided munition that have decimated the Russian Black Sea fleet.  If the stories are true it seems that the Ukrainians have developed drones that fit in a backpack and can deliver guided munition 3 or 5 kilometers away.  Small d

Do you know why 2040 is a great date for ambitious green targets...it's in 16 years and by then most politicians will have retired.  Seriously, the only way to cut greenhouse emissions by 90% is to entirely kill agriculture.  We are not talking about carbon capture of greenhouse gas credits, we are talking 90% cut.  What people don't understand is the amount of processing that agriculture requires.  Let's take a low-hanging fruit, wheat, one of the simplest grains.  Yet, assuming that Monsanto doesn't exist anymore, from year to year the grain for the successive planting has to be stored.  You cannot just leave grain alone for a whole winter, rot will destroy about 15% to 30% of the seeds you have stored.  Grains need to be moved, we call it aeration.  That takes energy.  mechanical planting requires energy, if you want to be a reductionist you can say, we will use Oxes and carts...guess what, Methane from the Ox is a certainty. It doesn't matter, 90% is like saying

Most people will be familiar with the name Truth Social Media, the brainchild of the Trump organisation to replace Twitter (or X as it is now known).  Of course now that it has been acquired by a SPEC (special purpose acquisition company) it is according to some worth anywhere from $3 billion to $ 6 billion.  Valuation for companies is rarely based on historical performance but still, Since inception in 2021 TSM has generated sales of about $12 million per annum and losses of about $40 million (figures from the IPO docs).   As an investors you have to understand that valuation is a tricky thing, because it is based on the expectation of future revenues and profits, and not the past.  Tesla at its peak had a p/e over 1,400, but revenues, and profits caught up, and the enterprise's valuation reflects that reality (p/e today 40.. stock price is higher then it was).  There has also been companies such as the GrillCheese Truck company that had a valuation of several hundred million, whi