Farmer Diaries

 There are two brands of journalist in Mexico. Sometimes it’s hard to believe they operate in the same country last week Hipolito Mora was gun down. He was one of the most vocal critics of the drug cartel in Mexico and daily he would write in his newspapers the latest cartel activities. He was endlessly courageous.  On the other side, you have journalist that repeat exactly what the government says or what companies say, with no investigation, which whether they are simply be our mouthpiece for the establishment What is amazing is these two breeds of jealous inhabit the same market. The journalist that attacked the cartel or creatures, and often killed. It is a deadly passion. They follow as for the others. They provide little, if any useful news, and seem to fill pages with useless drivel. So last week, another great journalist was lost. The war on drug is going badly mainly because there’s so much demand for their product. We have to be honest drugs today are cheaper in the US than t

 It is truly breathtaking when one considers that America spent hundreds if not thousands of billions of dollars in Afghanistan Iraq with literally nothing to show for it and then spent less than $20 billion and supporting Ukraine that has led to near civil war in Russia. it is hard to even conceive that a country such as Russia could be destabilized by so little and so quickly. Last weekends, strange coup attempt against Putin the ousting of two senior ministers, and the ending of the Wagner group tells you almost everything you need to know about how weak the state really is. Right now it is unclear how Ukrainian will take advantage of the situation, but what is clear is that two of the most effective fighting forces against Ukraine have left the theatre of war. Wagner has collapsed, and one presumed that these it’s soldiers, mostly army  veterans will go home, since it is unlikely that they have any appetite for re-joining the army.  As for the Chechen forces that went out to suppor

 The creation of Pakistan in 1971 was driven by the Muslim minority of India, not wanting to be subsumed by the Hindu majority of the country. It was always about religion, and today Pakistan find itself at a strange crossroad. What is evident is that a country based on religion and an innate ability to antagonize all its neighbors, find itself in a position where it is virtually bankrupt Even more worrisome is it’s dependency on China which has taken control of large slots of the country.  Pakistan has always push the narrative that India was looking to take over Pakistan, when in fact, India was one of the most ardent supporter of the creation of Bangladesh, or ans it used to be called East Pakistan. What is the relationship then between Pakistan and Ron DeSantis both work under the illusion that people want to take something away from them. In the case of DeSantis, his strange vision is driven by a cult of personality with one a different, which is himself where the two compare is t

Whatever is going on in Russia the implication for the rest of the world is critical. What people don’t realize is that 100% of all Russian foreign involvement is done through the Wagner group and not through regular Russian Troops that means that by making the Wagner group outlaw, the Russians have basically given up their positions all of the world where they had an influence in the political and military process. This is a game changer. It does not matter what happens in Russia, but the involvement of Russia in the rest of the world has taken a major shift and that is critical to the events that will enfold over the next 15 to 20 years. We will only know the outcome of the battle between the Wagner group and Putin once it’s all over. Right now the disinformation is such that it is an unknown.  One thing for sure is, this is a deciding factor in the Ukraine war. The Wagner group has taken over Russia Southern command, which was the command group in charge of the war in Ukraine, that

 I wonder why Taylor Swift has excluded Canada from her world tour.  Granted usually American musicians don’t see Canada as a foreign country, especially Swift since she lives less than 200 km from Canada. Still Canada must have done something to upset her.  In her usual fashion she doesn’t scream it she lives it,  you piss me off, I will not come over.   No dialogue, my guess is that she could not get an agreement out of the Canadian promoters, but I could be wrong Still Canada should wonder, and funny enough none of the Canadian media seem interested in her reason for staying away! He music is rather good, at speaks to female empowerment and I am all for that.  

 Since 2012 America has seen a 9 point decline in math and a 14 point decline in reading among 4500 13 year olds.  In addition there has been. Marked decline in the number of student taking Math in school (didn’t think that was even an option…) Maybe China doesn’t produce much fundamental research but look at the names of all those in US universities that are doing fundamental research on solar panels or battery technology and the names will surprise you…lots of Chinese names  It is well known that Americans, following the footsteps of Their politicians, despise knowledge in almost any form and when the facts are clear and obvious they generally prefer conspiracy theories. America has one of the world’s most expensive education system ( #2 after Luxembourg pop: 675,000) and it continues to fail its clients!  Sometime I wonder what is wrong with the Teacher’s Union.  I wonder about politicians on the left who seem to think that the only solution to America’s eduction system is more mone

 Self driving vehicles is not about safer cars, although it is certain to help its to reduce the cost of owning a car.  The real benefit of a self driving car is (1) the elimination of parking space near the home, (2) centralization of recharging (99% of self driving tech is driven by the electric car industry), and (4) the real winner is the lowering of cost of access to automobile  The first two are obvious, having self driving cars means that cars can be in garages or parking areas away from homes and businesses, freeing up expensive real estate, central charging is obvious too, but lo were in free. It if driving is more complex, many North American families have multiple cars because they are needed by multiple people, but the use may not coincide in time.  On average a car is used 2 hours per days, the other 22 it is unused,  if we double the hours used it would lead to a reduction in the total number of vehicles by half.   It is easy to imagine small groups buying cars together b

 Best CEO reply when he learned that his ammunition was used in the Ukrainian conflict.  May not agree with his business, but the man has class and then some: “ We categorically are NOT exporting anything to Russia and have not had an export permit for Russia since 2014,” he replied. “We do not support any sale of our product to any Russian son-of-a-bitch and if we can find out how they acquire, if in fact they do, we will take all steps available to stop it.”  Steve Hornady, CEO of the family company based in Grand Island, Nebraska, wrote that to Politico That’s how you answer a serious query from a well know journal.  Clear and simple statement

 Anyone reading US political news will have noted that aside from Trump no one is getting any real airplay.  The entire GOP field has been dragged into Trumps troubles with little grit from the participants to do anything about it.  I mean Trump even got them to sign a pledge that if they were elected president they would pardon him… So DeSantis for all his fault is an intelligent guy, maybe a bit on the spectrum but a smart guy, the only way he stays in the press is to do outrageous things in Florida.  His fight with Disney is a good example.  It will not be legally resolved until the primaries are done.  It gives him his only real option to stay in the media’s attention.  It’s not a great option, but it’s better than nothing! After the primaries he can always change his mind and the lawsuit will go away, or if he running as the GOP nominee for president well he will no longer be Governor (according to Florida laws he should already have resigned. But the GOP has 70% control of govern

 So  Escom has moved the deck chairs around as a way of solving South Africa’s most glaring problem. Absolute electricity shortage due to decades of theft, graft and incompetence.   Johannesburg central business district is.a ghost town, businesses having been chased out or given up their offices which have been taken over by “criminal gangs” who at in fact supporters of the ANC.   The place is falling apart. Transformers and wires are being stolen during planned shutdowns and sold outside of South Africa, business are being robbed during these same shutdowns, and the police appears to be either bough off or complicit. It is an indication how far SA has fallen off when law enforcement is now seen to be part of the problem.  There are still enclaves with private power generation and private armies, but what is the point.  People are looking to leave seeking safe harbour almost anywhere they can. Amazingly, South Africa is fairing worse than Zimbabwe, but then the ANC is not only corrupt

 The DNA of the Quebec independence movement is tied to its pro-Mussolini (eg read Catholic) tendencies.  It’s not overriding and it occurs in the 1940s and is also based on the habits that the English speaking officers had of sending their French Canadian troops as cannon fodder!  Think Blackadder goes fourth as a reference. This is important when considering why the GOP has such a love for Putin, this is not a new thing, they loved Philippine dictators as they did for Chile’s.  More importantly this is not a new thing, because for rich Americans Putin is an ok guy.  He respects private property and is not anti-religious.   Of course the other brand of Conservatives (neocons) are the forth leg of a three legged stool that is the GOP. So what are the three legs of the GOP stool (as defined by Reagan): bible thumpers, the fasists and business.   Bible thumpers are in trouble as young Christian’s disagrees more and more with their elders and leave organized religion (from 75% to 42% in t

 What will kill the California and Florida real estate market: insurance. Already, no national insurance company will insure homes in California, State Farm the last one quit a few weeks ago and is no longer writing new policies.  The same for Florida where hurricanes, fraud and government interference is almost certain to ensure that the last national insurance company will leave the market before the end of 2023.  Nature is to blame as is fraud, Florida accounts for nearly 70% of all insurance lawsuits in the US but only 7% of the market in terms of premiums.  But the real killer here are the hurricane. 80% of hurricanes hit Florida.  The last one cost the insurance industry $62 billion.  That’s a lot of premiums, if insurance companies cannot make money in a market they leave. Right now the US government offers homeowners insurance, but after the latest debt limit increase negotiations it has seen its budget cut by 90%  it too will have to stop offering insurance in California and F

 Trying to write an article about this Mexican mega project has proved difficult.  In a sense some of the basic infrastructure is almost in place, hundreds ofkilometres of tracks have been laid, but in many places ballast shortages means that the rail is not completed yet.  In other case core tourist stations have not even broken ground, specifically the Cancún airport station.  If you have to take the bus to downtown Cancún to catch the train to Tulum…well you will stay in the bus from the airport directly to Tulum.    Rumours are that most of the important stations are nearly complete, but still you cannot see any progress are there are only artist’s renditions.  Rolling stock has begun to be delivered but cannot yet be tested. Rumours are that the President will ride a train in December on the southern part of the system which has been completed for some time..  after all he opened the Dos Bocas refinery more than a year ago and its still not operating. Mexico is always fascinating.

 So sequoia capital one of the most profitable private equity fund has split into 4 parts, two Europe and America are run by one guy, China has been spun off as has India.  According to rumours the head of non-Asia sequoia has been heard to say that China is uninvestable and returns in India continue to disappoint.  Sequoia will return to its core business of Europe and North America.  Asia has its own fund as does China.  It is unclear if either have any free capital to further invest! This confirms what I have been saying about China.  The smart money is already gone, this restructuring was long planned as investors had to be re-allocated to each segment.  But the management companies for India and China are no longer related to Sequoia. This has been in the works for some months

 Reading a Canadian magazine while waiting for my dental appointment there was this blurb about this Canadian family that had left Canada for good in 2015 for Costa Rica.  Starting in a beach hut and over the years progressing to a “five bedroom with pool house on top of a mountain”.  The whole thing ends with the family retiring to Toronto in 2021, because of the impact of global warming. First a few facts about Costa Rica: it’s poor and it’s a cheap place to live.  When it’s not raining it’s as hot and dusty as hell. That’s Costa Rica, and the reason it’s poor is the above mentioned! Now having lived in many tropical countries I can attest that the first few years are great, and yes there are some very violent weather episodes, but the real problem with these countries, that is unsaid in the articles, is that they are poor and are destinations for people looking for cheap ways to live in luxury, think the English expats in turkey from the late 1990.  Nothing wrong with that, but I am

 Think about it, Santos’ entire biography is total bullshit.  Yet he has the complete support of the GOP (at least in public).   Why would the GOP also support Trump, aka Papa Bear, I mean in their eyes it’s the same thing,  it’s the family you always protect the family! No need to look any deeper than that!  It’s got nothing to do with the facts, which in the GOP matter for little if anything.   The GOP don’t eat their young, they leave that to the democrats.

 Did you know that flight to and from China only recovered to 50% of the pre pandemic, and more importantly flights between China and the US are at less than 10% of what they were prior to the pandemic. What that means is the US executive who were in the past flying to China to either contract work or supervise operations are no longer doing so, the long term implication for China is catastrophic because the US is China’s #1 export market.  America is/was China single largest source of FDI.   In the short term the impact is being felt right now, expanding capex by companies in their US operations and a precipitous drop in total FDI into China that translates into slower economic growth. When will trend change?  Probably not for years to come.  The reason is that China is no longer financially attractive as a FDI destination, Americas and Vietnam (which is a small economy) are more attractive.   CEO have not got to China for several years because of covid, the connection is broken; fina

It used to be Republicans that were pro immigration and democrats that were anti -immigration.  GOP donors were keen to keep wages low, while democrats were supporting their unionized workers supporters and making sure that immigration would be difficult. Of course this a is gross exaggeration, but today the table has turned.  The most rabid anti-immigrationist are the GOP, and they do it because their base is anti-immigration.  It has little to do with wages, it has everything to do with identity politics that the GOP has been pushing since 1964.  Trump was the culmination -- the first President to say plainly that he doesn't like Mexicans who bring diseases and crime to the US (as if Americans could not do that themselves). The principal feature of identity politics is that it's US against THEM.  In the past, the GOP had paid lip service to the christian right and to the anti-immigration firebrands (think the Bush family).  Today the christian right discusses, in conferences,

 So far not a single presidential hopeful opponent has made a single disparaging comment against Trump and his dealing with secret and top secret documents.  The reason is simple, they have nothing to gain and everything to lose. 1.  This is not their fight, there is no reason for them to say anything about the case, or even comment on how the justice department has been behaving towards Trump.  If I were a political strategist for DeSanti I will tell him to shut up not answer question and not be cornered.  Trump has done a lot of damage to his own cause because of his inability to shut up.  Case and point losing the civic case against A.J Carroll.  The man is his own worse enemy. 2. Wait until Trump is too weak or his reputation too damaged the real risk is that Trump will launch a third party to fight against the GOP.  Right now Trump has money, still has some support and could still win this case, although the odds are against him.  In addition, Trump is burning through attorneys a

 It will probably never be resolved fully but lets see who gains and who loses: Russia gain:   It makes an Ukrainian spring offensive into Crimea impossible It creates a scorched earth in Crimea -- there will be no wheat harvested in Crimea this summer since the only canal that brings water to Crimea draws all its water from the Kakhovaka reservoir which no longer exists. It creates serious problems for the Ukrainian nuclear power plant that uses the water from the reservoir to provide cooling, therefore potentially reducing the supply of electricity to the rest of the Ukraine -- although it seems that the nuclear power station was effective contingencies in place to keep the nuclear station operational (that one is complex). Allows Russia to remove its military forces from Crimea in an orderly fashion.  The Russians were anticipating that Ukraine would soon start invading Crimea to force Russia out.  Now the Russians have maybe a 30 to 60 day respite. Who loses Russian army cannot rem

Years ago, the economist had a cover image it showed protester agains the World Bank/IMF/USA, on wide side were blue collar workers and on the other-side hippies, and the caption was "They're with us?". It was the first sign of political re-alignment in the OCDE.  In the US the trend was slower (this image dates back to the 1990s, at the hight of the anti-globalization movement) but its now in full swing.  The shift coalesced with the election of Donald Trump, a "billionaire" who spoke a few home truth: The system is crooked, I should know I use it Moved the US embassy to Jerusalem that "is" the capital of Israel Avowed racist, who left is dog whistle at home and "called a spade a spade" (being literal here on purpose) Daily able to piss off the democrats Trump despite owning a B757 as a private jet was seen as a man of the people (go figure) and spoke the truth that "racists and misogynes could embrace".  Trump was the kind of guy

It is a poorly hidden secret that Florida is very reliant on illegals for a substantial part of its economic activities.  DeSanti, for presidential bona fides , decided that the law of the land would now be strictly enforced and that illegal immigrants would find it impossible to work or even get a driving licence in the state.  It was seen by the GOP as a low cost high value method of reenforcing the white conservative vote that's rather pissed-off with the GOP strong support for anti-abortion laws. Well it back fired in a spectacular fashion. Minorities, who are often harassed by the already well know racist cops have something to rally around.  Non-white truckers have in large numbers decided that it was too dangerous to go down to Florida, in a sense they have told their firms that any load to Florida should be transported by white truckers. Now, its not every non-white trucker that are boycotting the state, but its in sufficient numbers that it causing shippers to raise rates

So back in 2022, the Chinese adopted a new security law.  Ostensibly it was to allow the Chinese police more latitude when investigating corporate malfeasance, guess what one of the off-shoots of this has been to prosecute at least three foreign consulting firm, where employees (mostly Chinese nationals) have been arrested, for espionage . Guess what is the principal business of these foreign consultants:  Helping U.S. company navigate the complex and meandering road to establish operations in China.  Yes, the Chinese are going after the people that help foreign companies invest into China, BTW one of the firm is Bain & Co.  so we are not talking of small independent "fly by the seat of your pants" operations. What do suspect happened.  Once, this became known (it emerged about two months ago, but was only confirmed by Bain & Co. in the last few days), the message to the entire foreign business community is that China will now consider almost anything as espionage! Gu

 It is widely recognized and acknowledged that there are more than 10 million vacant homes in Japan.  Most would think that this are all in the country side, but that is not the case there are vacant homes in Ciba Prefecture, about 30 minutes from the Imperial Palace!   The son of a friend who works as a model in Tokyo has recently bought one of these abandoned homes (with furniture) for $1.00.  Obviously they neighbours are happy since the house had been vacant for a decade.   However, the implication is that for about $100,000 he will have a house in downtown Tokyo.  40 years ago the same property would have been worth millions.   Japan is the first where the value of real estate is dropping dramatically.   My friend was telling me that in Chip (even closer to the imperial palace) there are free standing houses that have been for sales for decades with no takers.  The prices are reasonable (about $150,000 for 250 square meters (3000 square feet). In central Tokyo! China’s rapid demog

 How to get up the nose of the oversensitive Christian nut jobs— follow the law and get the bible banded from school library. It will be interesting to see if private Catholic schools on Utah will be force to remove the bible… Sometime the law of unintended consequences is just to funny

Several US states as suing FEMA because of the increased price and availability of catastrophic insurance. State farm just announce it will no longer provide homeowners insurance to new customers in California. Florida resident have seen a 300% increase in the cost of flood and hurricane insurance. This is the thin wedge of a change that opponents to climat change policies didn’t see coming.  In the case of Florida the governor made things worse by being a pawn of the insurance industry. Still insurance is not a charity and when premiums are no longer sufficient to meet the cost of claims insurance companies walk away. We should expect an expansion of this trend since State Farm has opened the door to outright quitting parts of the insurance market.  At the same time, but unconnected, FEMA is understood to be revising its ability to write catastrophic insurance policies across the country because of new financial pressures which arose from Congress’ now budget dramatically reducing FEM

 Well the stock market doesn’t agree! Disney’s competitors are considered to be companies such as Universal.  They both are massive content creators and they both operate amusement parks.  Universal trades at 14x earnings while Disney trades at 39x earnings. There are two ways at looking at this Disneys profits are falling and the market has not repriced the stock or its potential for earning is rising.  The former would only be true if it was a short term thing but Disney’s p/e has consistently been above 30 for the past decade. So it’s the other thing.  Disney you s not seen as failing! Rather it’s revenue growth potential is being priced in!   As for the decision to not relocate some of its California based employees — it seems that the new CEO listened to his staff who by a wide margin indicated that they had little appetite for moving to Florida!  He listened to his employees!

 First, there was Pelosi’s visit to the non-nation, then there was Biden’s strange comment about a military pact that did not exist and a nation that even America doesn’t recognize as a country— keeping its options open.  That comment was not walked back by the White House for some weeks, whereas in the past it would have been hours. Now, we have discussions about discussions on a trade agreement with Taiwan (this would be the first time ever that the US contemplates a trade agreement with a non-nation). China has been making more and more noise about invading/reclaiming Taiwan in the past few months especially since China’s economy is facing a number of simultaneous challenges.  Of course the Chinese have made it clear that if the US navy comes close they will consider this an act of war… It seems to me that Biden is taunting the Chinese because it would be a convenient and probably a low cost engagement for the US. Let’s assume that Xi is in an information bubble and the CCP sees a q

 So it has been averted once more  The GOP got what they wanted massive reduction in government discretionary spendings including massive cuts to the IRS budget (who gains from that change). It is evident that since the GOP essentially controls congress they get something for their trouble. The left is fuming but until they get to control congress and act as a real group something they are often unable to do!   That’s the state of play in the US.   On the GOP side the problem is almost as bad since the party base keeps on running unelectable morons that win primaries by wide margins but the lose the general election The GOP in 2024 will get clobbered by abortion rights, Americans have not forgotten and are by a wide margin pro abortion. The evident play to reduce Medicare and social security.   This is not a small challenge, also they only have to look at De Santi to see what the extreme of the GOP wants.