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What’s going on with Taiwan

 First, there was Pelosi’s visit to the non-nation, then there was Biden’s strange comment about a military pact that did not exist and a nation that even America doesn’t recognize as a country— keeping its options open.  That comment was not walked back by the White House for some weeks, whereas in the past it would have been hours. Now, we have discussions about discussions on a trade agreement with Taiwan (this would be the first time ever that the US contemplates a trade agreement with a non-nation).

China has been making more and more noise about invading/reclaiming Taiwan in the past few months especially since China’s economy is facing a number of simultaneous challenges.  Of course the Chinese have made it clear that if the US navy comes close they will consider this an act of war…

It seems to me that Biden is taunting the Chinese because it would be a convenient and probably a low cost engagement for the US.

Let’s assume that Xi is in an information bubble and the CCP sees a quick war with Taiwan as a socially desirable change in the conversation (you have to remember that China has a huge demographic problem, local state debt and the evident failure of its belt and road initiatives).  The reason that America would see this as a low risk war is that it doesn’t have to attack China it simply cuts its trade routes.  A blockade in the Indian Ocean!  Thousands of kilometres from China’s coast.  China doesn’t have a blue water navy it has a costal one!  

For Biden this would energize his base as it would show him as a war president. Now I don’t want to over emphasize this whole thing but there are signs that America is challenging China on Taiwan that China is very sensitive to these actions and that China’s leadership is cutoff from reality.

My read is that Biden is pushing the Chinese hard into doing something they have been preparing for decades, something they have vowed to do and in addition something that would help Biden in the 2024 election cycle.

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