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Wh blew up the Kakhovaka Damm

 It will probably never be resolved fully but lets see who gains and who loses:

Russia gain:  

  • It makes an Ukrainian spring offensive into Crimea impossible
  • It creates a scorched earth in Crimea -- there will be no wheat harvested in Crimea this summer since the only canal that brings water to Crimea draws all its water from the Kakhovaka reservoir which no longer exists.
  • It creates serious problems for the Ukrainian nuclear power plant that uses the water from the reservoir to provide cooling, therefore potentially reducing the supply of electricity to the rest of the Ukraine -- although it seems that the nuclear power station was effective contingencies in place to keep the nuclear station operational (that one is complex).
  • Allows Russia to remove its military forces from Crimea in an orderly fashion.  The Russians were anticipating that Ukraine would soon start invading Crimea to force Russia out.  Now the Russians have maybe a 30 to 60 day respite.
Who loses
  • Russian army cannot remain in Crimea, if the Ukrainians blow up the remaining bridge they will be stuck with no exit in Crimea and would even have to surrender to the Ukrainians
  • Crimeans are really screwed.  Without water from the Kakhovaka reservoir (that will be completely empty within 72 hours), Crimea has no irrigation therefore no crops to harvest.  
  • Russia's military operations in Crimea are compromised and the whole peninsula will have to be evacuated, Russia will either have to repatriate all the Russians based in Crimea or abandon them to their faith (historically, the Russian army has favoured the second option).
  • Ukrainian villages caught downstream of the damm forced to evacuate their villages
Ukraine wins
  • The removal of the damm terminates the Ukrainian army's ability to invade Crimea at least until land below the damm settles.  By the time Ukraine moves onto Crimea the Russian army will have long gone, and probably demolished the only remaining bridge to Russia...
  • Ukraine redirect its military forces towards other Russian objectives
  • Crimeans who were pro-Russia ethnic Russians are probably less keen on Putin and Russia in general especially if they are abandoned (which seems likely) by the Russian Army
Honestly, last week the Russian Ministry of defence touted the destruction of 12 Ukrainian tanks...turns out that these tanks were actually tractors and combines...so when you are down to touting your ability to blow up farm equipment your victories are far and few between.  If Russia was keen to extract its forces from Crimea the blowing up of the damm serves two goals; give Russians the time to get all their equipment out and pursue a scorched earth strategy, something the Russians have long experience in doing.

If you follow who has to gain the most from blowing up the barrage (which by the way is not easy and requires several tons of dynamite) lets be clear the area is controlled by Russia, the Ukrainians are not near the damm, the only way to get sufficient explosives inside the damm is to bring truck loads of explosives.  This is not like in WWII movies were some guy walks with a small satchel and blows up something.  This was a massive "soviet" construction so way way over engineered.  

This was not an act of terrorism it was an army looking for a retreat advantage when the war, as it stand, is no going the way it had hoped.  Crimea was always impossible as a Russian beachhead, it is too vulnerable economically.

Still Russia is blaming Ukraine and Ukraine is blaming Russia, of course 

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