Skip to main content

1989 all over again, maybe

Whatever is going on in Russia the implication for the rest of the world is critical. What people don’t realize is that 100% of all Russian foreign involvement is done through the Wagner group and not through regular Russian Troops that means that by making the Wagner group outlaw, the Russians have basically given up their positions all of the world where they had an influence in the political and military process. This is a game changer.

It does not matter what happens in Russia, but the involvement of Russia in the rest of the world has taken a major shift and that is critical to the events that will enfold over the next 15 to 20 years.

We will only know the outcome of the battle between the Wagner group and Putin once it’s all over. Right now the disinformation is such that it is an unknown.  One thing for sure is, this is a deciding factor in the Ukraine war. The Wagner group has taken over Russia Southern command, which was the command group in charge of the war in Ukraine, that means that Russian troops no longer have access to ammunition, fuel or food from their headquarters that have been seized by Wagner, in addition, troops that were focus on Ukraine war have now been called back to deal with the Wagner group that is making its way to the Moscow. 

This is a rare opportunity for Zielinski,  since the better part of the middle of last week, the Ukrainian forces have focussed on ammunition dumps and seem to be preparing for a major offensive.  It is a rare strategic opportunity to take over a substantial amount of land that they failed to do the last few weeks.

No one saw this outcome as possible, it is completely outside of any strategic analysis, that Russia’s most effective divisions, which were the Wagner group, would rebel against Moscow, and seek to remove Putin and his allies from power. It has long been establish that for Moscow strategy towards Ukraine to change, that would have to be a Civil War, because the majority of those to surround Putin in the power complex are the same opinion that reestablishing the old Soviet union territory, is the only way to safeguard Russia’s military integrity. It is unlikely that the Wagner group will be successful, unless they suddenly have the strong support of regular Russian troops.  When the Wagner group arrives in Moscow and their ability to control the situation. In the last 12 hours they have driven more than 600 km in less than 24 hours, less than 200 km away from Moscow again the likelihood of the Wagner group succeeding is credibly small, but it changes the entire war efforts in Ukraine, having lost the most effective troops in the region , in addition, as I said, both of the removal of Wagner from Russia’s foreign operation has huge implication. I don’t suspect that anyone in the White House or 10 Downing St., or anywhere else for that matter he’s sleeping much these 

the removal of Wagner from Russia’s foreign operation has huge implication. I don’t suspect that anyone in the White House or 10 Downing St., or anywhere else for that matter.

This presents the world wouldn’t paradigm shift very much like the fall of the Berlin Wall all these years ago.  The next 100 hours may decide the faith of the was in Ukrainian, much faster than anyone anticipated.



Comments

Popular posts from this blog

what people get wrong about tariffs

 The issue is simple. What percentage of the economy is dependent on tariff goods? The truth, is that the US economy is far more closed than people understand. People genuinely believe that all manufacturing has ceased to exist in the United States all given to China on the altar of woke policy the truth can be further from That statement. Only about 15% of US GDP is related to foreign trade. Of that amount, slightly more than half is from Canada in Mexico. And half of that is energy. What that means, is that about 7% of US GDP is tariff dependent. The proof in the pudding, is how little money tariff generates. People think that 30 or 50 billion is a lot it’s not in an economy that has $3 trillion. The impact on the US economy will be less visible but not absent. Inflation hasn’t occurred yet first because tests have hardly started to bite, but more importantly it’s such a small percent of the economy. Now certain things are critical. The rare earth metals from China were critical....

The end of Tesla?

 it takes a special kind of idiot, to think that he can antagonize his entire customer base, and think that it will not impact his business. When Elon Musk went to work for Donald Trump, and created the doge department, he antagonized every liberal, and these people represent 90% of his client base.That’s not a brilliant move. Now Elon Musk is worth hundreds of billions of dollar, so he shouldn’t care a great deal, however, he needs to care because of several other issues. The cyber truck has been a disaster, most have had to be recalled because of defective glue, it’s not a truck, it’s not a car, it’s noisy, relatively uncomfortable, but great as a development platform. What Tesla has learned in making car manufacturing more seamless is truly amazing. The problem was that Elon Musk was so pissed with the Democrats, and with Joe Biden, in particular because of some slight, which were just plain stupid too. By the way, that he decided to support with hundreds of millions of dollar, ...

Demographics

 I am preparing a kind of family tree for our children so that they know where they came from.  In my family I am the only survivor, although my brother and sister died recently they were both in their seventies (a story I told already).    It was a fun process, but it provided more than that.  First, I married relatively young I was 26 when I married and nearly 30 when our first child was born.   I was looking at my ancestors.  On my mother's side, she had 6 siblings, Four died before the age of 30, two in war, and two from illnesses.  Only she and a single sister survived.   The two boys had a child each but they died in WWII, and the other sister died as an infant.   what is interesting is that every one of my mother's siblings had children in their early 20s.   I know that my mom was hardly 20 when my brother was born.    What is remarkable is that among our friends, we are the only ones to have fou...