Farmer Diaries

 So the election in Quebec is in full swing.  It's not very interesting because the current government is ridiculously popular -- every poll shows that they will win by a landslide.  So people have begun focusing on the small stuff, the stupid stuff. Two days ago, the Prime Minister using a hammy tool of running for office decided that he would not say the name of the leader of the official opposition, instead calling her the french equivalent of "this little old lady", not that she's old, it's just a somewhat derogatory way of referring to women in French. It would be funny if it were not so very pathetic, and it shows how amateurish the whole thing is; the idea is that you remove power from your opponent by not naming them.  How very 1960s! First, the problems (1) The prime Minister and the leader of the opposition have known each other for more than a decade.  So the only way he could not remember her name is either (a) he's a dumbass or (b) he has memory i

 So Emirate took delivery of the very last A380 ever manufactured.  total production was 251 aircraft.  In a nutshell a disastrous program for airbus.  The total development cost for the aircraft was estimated to be around Euro 25 billion, or about Euro 99 million per actual aircraft delivered.  In short, the total program loss exceeds Euro 15 billion for Airbus.   What happened? That's the easy part.  I was part of a team of commercial bankers (there were many teams for both manufacturers) and we estimated that demand for very large aircraft over the next 25 years (up to 2025) would not exceed 400 units, as air travel was changing with more point to point flights and fewer spokes and hub. I know we were not the only ones with that result, years later I spoke to bankers at other firms who had done the same thing we had for Boeing, and they came up with similar figures.    When Airbus announced the A380 Boeing announced the ending of the B747 program, over a period of 50 years Boein

 Over the past two decades, Turkey has been the "fly in the ointment" and has played a hard game against the West but also the Middle East.  Over the past year, the country has made some new friends from old enemies; starting with Israel and now Saudi Arabia.  The reason appears to be Erdogan's self-interest.  There will be an election in 2023 and Erdogan is in trouble -- the opposition is united, the country is broke and inflation (at 80%) is out of control.   AMLO's government has followed a similar pattern, although its trajectory has been shorter than that of Turkey, mainly because the country was also poorly run before AMLO took power -- he just compounded the problems.  The Mexican people are now finding out that AMLO has been supporting Cuba and Venezuela on the quiet with food and energy exports.   Now, Mexican inflation is rampant, the coffers are empty and AMLO should soon be looking for friends out of old enemies.  Over the past two weeks, AMLO has antagoni

 70% of Americans are pro-abortion, and yet in many places in the US, their opinion counts for nothing.  Well, it turns out that the slam dunk November midterm just took a massive hit.  There seem to be two reasons here: (a) Majority of Americans are pro-abortion (within reasons and limits) (b) The GOP thought that the issue was resolved and they could move even more aggressively to get their far-right agenda approved. Well so far the game plan has been a disaster, and the ability of the GOP to retake the Senate seems to be a 50/50 proposition when it was considered a sure thing a few months ago.  What happened? First, most Americans are pro-abortion, and the supreme court decision was partisan as opposed to legal.  A fact, that the GOP and the supreme court seemed happy to acknowledge  Second, the GOP has been unable to promote non-Trump supporting candidates, and those they have pushed have generally been defeated.  The consequence is that the crazies are running the show, and ruinin

The first thing that comes to mind is "what was she thinking".  Three weeks ago Nancy Pelosi the Speaker of the house and America's third most important politician (third in succession if the President dies) flew to Taipei which created shock waves that continue to reverberate.  There are serval issues here that need to be addressed: (1) What was Pelosi's objective in going to Taiwan? The first thing is that NP has been a politician for a very long time;  She was first elected in 1987 -- so she understands the geopolitical implications of such a trip, she flew to Taiwan on a US military aircraft, with the support of the rest of the US government.  At first, glance it's not entirely clear what the US gets out of this trip.  Strictly speaking on what is "apparent" the visit by NP seems to have been a wasted opportunity. (2) How did the Chinese react? The Chinese leadership is not having a good time.  Both economics (an well beyond overheated housing market

 Yesterday a Mexican journalist posted a good question, what would be the impact of Mexico leaving the USMCA free trade agreement? https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/opinion/alberto-tovar/2022/08/20/si-hay-un-mexit-que-pasaria-en-nuestros-bolsillos/ My conclusions:  The answer for Mexico is unknowable, but we should expect a negative trend.  The two largest energy players (CFE & Pemex) are operating in crisis mode with excessive borrowings and little or no profits, as they are both used by the government for social engineering.  The Mexican government has neither the will nor the resources to combat the Americans (Canada is inconsequential here).  Three things are certain:  (a) new investments are unlikely to come to Mexico as the government detests foreign capital (b) CAPEX by foreign companies is unlikely to rise, and finally, and (c) a lot of US companies are "on-shoring" jobs to meet the challenges of weak supply chains. Reasoning Mexico is the US third largest trading

 So the much anticipated Quebec elections are less than 44 days away and to say that the battle is anticlimactic would be a massive understatement. August 20, poll: QAC 42% voter's intention between 80 and 105 seats (currently 97) Liberals  18% of the vote between 11 and 26  seats Who cares about the rest, their votes are so concentrated that they will be lucky to get even one seat in the next parliament. The bottom line these are the only two parties that saw an increase in the voter's intention (the poll was done on August 20th, 2022).  To say that the election process is slow is an understatement.  No one is really that interested because the current party in power needs 67 to obtain a majority, and NO ONE believes they will have less than 80.  That's the most conservative estimate if everything goes wrong.  In fact, it's more than likely that the CAQ will obtain more than 100 seats, and thereby increase its majority (the liberals will have between 11 and 26 seats (t

 NOTE:  Conrad Black was pardoned by then President Donald Trump, as they say:  "one finds all kinds of qualities to someone who does that" A week ago the FBI raided Trump's Florida residence for missing documents, I thought look at that they are doing an over the "Over the top Hilary Clinton thing" that will eventually help Trump to get re-elected in 2024.  BTW I am not a fan of Trump, to me and many many others, the raid looked like over-reach by a government agency.   My thought was "on the side of the GOP" they just got election ammunitions.   Then Monday the Attorney General said he would make the search warrant public...OK, that's different, maybe the DOJ realized they screwed up and that this would reveal the FBI's anti-Trump bias.  On Tuesday it emerged that the FBI had, on a number of occasions, asked "privately" for the specific documents it found in Florida, Not good for Trump -- this was not a fishing expedition, the FBI w

 Trump boasted a number of times that he would meet with the NY state attorney general and answer all its questions.  I guess he said the truth.  During his deposition, he only confirmed his name and proceeded to invoke his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination 440 times.  He didn't answer a single question. Amazing, when you consider that some aids to Hillary Clinton pleaded the fifth twice and he Trump was the first to blast them! Of course, FOX news is still pro-trump, still decrying the FBI's search for Presidential documents that Trump had kept at his Florida home...

 If you want to discuss the failure of the popular press is the lack of overall news this second week of August 2022.  Except there is still stuff going on.  The war in Ukraine continues to see death and destruction, but again reading the main sheet you would be hard pressed to find anything about this. Fatigue is a common issue, it was the problem with the war in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Americans simply didn't care anymore (not that they really cared that much to start with), 9 in 10 American could not show you Iraq or Afghanistan on a map of the world...despite America fighting there for nearly 20 years. The same is true for the Ukraine conflict, sure there's the odd article on how Russia is suffering from the blockade, that some North Korean soldiers will be sent to the front to support Putin (with friends like that who needs enemies...). Still, the war in Ukraine is no longer part of the front page (or in some cases the back page), it's not being discussed.  Sure we have

 This morning in the NYT there was a long article about the increase in food costs.  Item #1 was Canola Oil which saw a 161% increase in price.  Flour 61% and carrots 14%.  What is interesting here is the time frame.  between 2019 and 2022.  In that period the price of diesel rose from $2.49 per US Gallon to $ 5.48.  Between August 5th 2019 and August 8, 2022, the price of diesel rose by 122%.  Energy is not everything in the production of food, but it's an important component.  I was told by farmer friends that fertilizers and other pest control products have also seen a massive increase in prices over the past two years. The reality is that food processing has become more efficient as time goes by and therefore despite the increase in energy costs, food prices have been relatively stable. However, worrying is the increase in the cost of Canola oil because it is a lightly refined product, therefore, the increase in food costs is just, in my opinion, starting.  Once the increase in

 Well, lets see its seems that Canada's Ministry of foreign affairs bureaucrats don't read newspapers since they were unaware that things were too volatile to have the Canadian embassy open in Kiev.  Then the minister of foreign affairs was surprised that the Canadian Ambassador to China was called in because of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. BTW what's the point of having an ambassador to China if the Chinese cannot pass an important message to the Canadian government? Maybe someone should buy the minister a subscription to the Guardian newspaper so she and her staff could read about the war in Ukraine.  Just saying... 

How does this happen? It's not really important but you have to wonder about all this.  Reportedly, the production company spent $90 million but now the movie has been cancelled.  Let's say that it's not $90 but really $30 why not still the money is gone?  Why would they cancel the movie after having spent so much money? (1) The movie is so bad...that's unlikely there are plenty of terrible movies that were released and went directly to video.  So this is very unlikely to be the truth.  I mean there are plenty of terrible movies that are released. (2)  The right to the story has not been paid and not agreed to a new price.  It was so much that the production company decided "fuck it" (3)  Movie is really bad and the distribution company is suing because the movie is bad, the only way out is to make it disappear. (4) Aliens are about to attack earth!   Personally, I will support #4 Anyway, have a good weekend. UPDATE:  So on a number of articles about this it s

The wet dream of some bureaucrat the idea of building a high-speed train between Quebec City and Windsor.  A distance of 1,100 km with thousands of viaducts.  The Mexicans are, right now building a tourist train in the Yucatan and not a high-speed train and the total bill is just around US$ 20 billion, and that's going to be a diesel train. It's a stupid project in Mexico, and it is even more idiotic here in Canada.  Problem #1 population density is just not there.  There are currently 20 flights a day with an average flight time of 75 minutes at a cost of C$ 250 return (so $125 each way). Looking at the pure transport economic perspective:  Right now you can leave Montreal downtown at 6 am, and catch the 7:00 AM flight to Toronto, and be in the business district around 8:30 am.  So a 150-minute door to door.  The train has to equal that measure to be worthwhile.  The distance is 560 KM and a TGV  average speed of 320km/h so it could notionally do the trip in 200 minutes.  So t

 For the past six months, Canadian have been following the leadership race for the conservative party of Canada (no they have not, no one really cares except the party members).  The race has been close (not even), and the leader presents a true conservative pedigree of achievements and boldness (not really more of the same pablum). There are two wings to the party, the economically conservative "lassez faire" wing (classical blue Tories) and the Western socially conservative wing of the party (think of the GOP today);  Anti-abortion, anti-Kyoto, Pro gun, anti-vaccine, against marriage equality etc etc.  There are three candidates for the leadership that matter but we will focus on two which represent the two extremes of the party: The race is between a socially conservative junior minister under Harper and the ex-prime minister of Quebec who was also the leader of the Federal Conservative Party when things were very bad.  The big news: Poilievre recently got the endorsement

You've got to admire his inventiveness.  In 2020, AMLO signed the USMCA (new North American trade agreement), which was also signed by the Americans and Canadians.  In this agreement, there was a section on energy -- that AMLO made sure was included.  Now, US and Canadian companies are suing the Mexican government and CFE for breach of contract under the USMCA agreement.  AMLO's latest push is to announce that he is considering leaving the accord unless the Americans and Canadian walk away and allow him to do what he wants! First, the one country that stands to lose the most is Mexico, the trade balance is not in Mexico's favour.  As for services, Mexico is so far behind that there's little value there:  Mexican Banking and insurance are decades behind what is available in America, and the latest catastrophe with the creation of trading markets only made the Mexican capital market is not even appealing to Mexican companies. Virtually all financial products purchased by