Skip to main content

Airbus A380 -- the end of an era

 So Emirate took delivery of the very last A380 ever manufactured.  total production was 251 aircraft.  In a nutshell a disastrous program for airbus.  The total development cost for the aircraft was estimated to be around Euro 25 billion, or about Euro 99 million per actual aircraft delivered.  In short, the total program loss exceeds Euro 15 billion for Airbus.  

What happened?

That's the easy part.  I was part of a team of commercial bankers (there were many teams for both manufacturers) and we estimated that demand for very large aircraft over the next 25 years (up to 2025) would not exceed 400 units, as air travel was changing with more point to point flights and fewer spokes and hub.

I know we were not the only ones with that result, years later I spoke to bankers at other firms who had done the same thing we had for Boeing, and they came up with similar figures.   

When Airbus announced the A380 Boeing announced the ending of the B747 program, over a period of 50 years Boeing sold almost 1,600 units.  Funny enough despite Boeing shutting down the B747 program in 2010 its last order for the aircraft was made 2 months after Airbus's last delivery of the A380.

Hubris was the problem, taken together the B747 and the A380 total very large aircraft deliveries total less than 2,000 units.  Airbus for some reason thought that demand for very large aircraft would be north of 1,200

On the bright side, Airbus has the A319, A320NEO, A220, and  A350.  All these types are very popular

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

The end of Tesla?

 it takes a special kind of idiot, to think that he can antagonize his entire customer base, and think that it will not impact his business. When Elon Musk went to work for Donald Trump, and created the doge department, he antagonized every liberal, and these people represent 90% of his client base.That’s not a brilliant move. Now Elon Musk is worth hundreds of billions of dollar, so he shouldn’t care a great deal, however, he needs to care because of several other issues. The cyber truck has been a disaster, most have had to be recalled because of defective glue, it’s not a truck, it’s not a car, it’s noisy, relatively uncomfortable, but great as a development platform. What Tesla has learned in making car manufacturing more seamless is truly amazing. The problem was that Elon Musk was so pissed with the Democrats, and with Joe Biden, in particular because of some slight, which were just plain stupid too. By the way, that he decided to support with hundreds of millions of dollar, ...

Donald Trump‘s bad bargain

 The entire of 2023 and 2024 when Donald Trump was running for the White House, his mantra was no war, that the Ukraine conflict would be resolved in a day, and that he would do everything not to involve America and war. How the world has changed! He finds himself facing three conflicts; Ukraine, still going on almost 5 months after he became president. Gaza, an unspeakable crime against humanity, is obviously going to go all the way to its bitter end. And finally, Israel’s attack against Iran. It’s important to note, that Benjamin Netanyahu first indicated at the United nation that the Iranian were 3 to 5 years away from having the nuclear bomb. He made that statement in 1995. Therefore, no one is surprised that he uses the same two lines every so often. It’s entirely possible, that 30 years after he first announced it, that Iran has finally developed the bomb. It’s also remarkable that Iran, local power has been destroyed, from Yemen, to Syria, via Lebanon and Gaza to small exten...

TACO again, but worst!

 Donald Trump got the rare earth metals that he had thrown away on April 2, liberation day as he called it. What did the Chinese get in exchange? The whole deal, is on the wrap right now. But let’s be clear. It’s the Chinese that have the upper hand.Some of the materials made by the Chinese, are simply unavailable anywhere else. suspicions are that the Chinese got the high-end chips that they lost under Biden. Tariffs will probably return to the level of April 1, and in the end Donald and his friends got nothing for it. It gets worse, Chinese exports to United States are down 40%. The Chinese have found new markets, I probably never gonna buy American grain again. Once again, Donald Trump proved he’s a great negotiator. He got absolutely nothing for his Showmanship. He told the world, that everyone would come and kiss his ass, instead they’re laughing At him. There’s no joke about Donald Trump, a 25 and inherited a huge fortune and proceeded to make it a small one. Bottom line, the...