Farmer Diaries

The shares of Truth Social were listed in 2024 and the price quickly rose from the $17 dollar issue price to about $50.  The share price was range bound for nearly a year, when it eventually faced reality and started to fall, as all the vaunted management promises came to nothing.  The truth is that quarterly earnings while not in freefall,  are only above $800k, the management costs do not justify the share performance, which has been consistently negative since it was listed two years ago.    As of June 30th the share price stands just below $7.50 a share, market cap has collapsed to around $2 billion (still a lot if you consider that the operating cash flow is negative).  My guess is that over the next year the price will continue to fall, until it is below $1.00 and joins the pink sheet. Another company did something similar more than a decade ago, it was called the Grill Cheese Truck Company, which at one point had a market value in excess of $100 mill...

A week like this makes you a believer that global warming is an existential threat. Thank God we are not in London, still it's very warm and very uncomfortable for our cattle, especially for our dairy herd.  During the summer they are outside, but now they remain inside the barn away from the sun.   The ventilation systems helps, but still not a very pleasant time for our herd.   The ones that are doing the best are the pigs in the forest.  Chickens not so much, we have tried to place the meat chicken enclosure near the tree lines away from the sun, but we may have to butcher them early, they may die from heat strokes. One unexpected outcome is the increased efficiency of our biodigestors, thank god because our greenhouse fans are operating 24/7 to keep the temperature down in the greenhouses.  One good thing about the early June weather is that the water table is high.  In fact, the sudden heat has been helpful in drying out our fields that saw m...

A few days ago the Space X IPO happened, and two things are remarkable.  One expected, the share price of Space X fell a bit, its down from it $218 peak (issued at $200) down to $156 at closing on the 23rd of June.  The second is that Space X just borrowed a lot of money (actually drew down facilities it already at hand).  The second could (maybe) be caused by the first, it takes a few days for the 75 billion Space X raised to make its way from the various brokers to Space X coffers, so the drawdown could be related to that.  HOWEVER, it seems that SpaceX little mentioned AI foray cash consumption is even higher than anticipated. For Space X the real savior is the inclusion in the NASDAQ index, in particular the QQQ, it got a special one of exception of the two rules for inclusion (be listed for at least six months and profitable).  Space X has been listed for 10 days and is not profitable, nor is there a clear path to profits – the forward looking statements st...

The past four years have shown that the old adage that force projection was everything has been turned on its head.   The early destruction of Russia's tank offensive by Ukrainian drones (and the Russian's own stupidity), had fundamentally changed the power structure.   Until six months ago, the general perception was that the might of the US and of Israel in the Middle East was unchallegable.   Iran, Ukraine and drones proved otherwise. In the middle east Iran has been largely unchallenged in its ability to strike US bases in Kuwait (ok that's next door), Qatar Saudi Arabia and Dubai (a bit further).  Iran has shown a deep bench in terms of drones and its willingness to use them effectively.  It's unclear how much remains in the US munition depots, but it is serious enough that the American government which had sold systems to the Finn have told them not to expect any systems this year or next (and the US has been out of Ukraine for nearly two ye...

Was the departure of Prime Minister Starmer necessary?   In short, yes. He had two years as the leader of a new labour government with a crushing majority to take action.  He did absolutely nothing as if he was still a backbencher in the opposition.  He also made a massive error in inviting Peter Mendelsohn into his government when it was already well known that he had ties with Epstein.  This showed a massive lack of judgment on his part (and he only had himself to blame for that one). Will the new guy do any better, Andy Burnham has been a parliamentarian his entire adult life, from 2008 until 2016, when he became the mayor of Manchester.  Will he be an effective Prime Minister, who knows, the truth is that Starmer has largely been an empty shirt for the entirety of his mandate, he has managed to make the far right look good.   The same way Trump has made Iran's leadership sound reasonable (they are not – actually homicidal maniacs), and China a...