The past four years have shown that the old adage that force projection was everything has been turned on its head. The early destruction of Russia's tank offensive by Ukrainian drones (and the Russian's own stupidity), had fundamentally changed the power structure. Until six months ago, the general perception was that the might of the US and of Israel in the Middle East was unchallegable. Iran, Ukraine and drones proved otherwise.
In the middle east Iran has been largely unchallenged in its ability to strike US bases in Kuwait (ok that's next door), Qatar Saudi Arabia and Dubai (a bit further). Iran has shown a deep bench in terms of drones and its willingness to use them effectively. It's unclear how much remains in the US munition depots, but it is serious enough that the American government which had sold systems to the Finn have told them not to expect any systems this year or next (and the US has been out of Ukraine for nearly two years now). As for Israel, the challenge is real, and the (unreported) drone attacks continue day and night.
Never mind protecting its allies, the American navy is hiding in the red sea, the other side of Saudi Arabia to avoid tangling with Iranian drones. The Americans government knew little of its opponent (Iran) despite hating them for over 40 years. It's size, geography and population, all unknown by the Secretary of Defense no less – he was surprised to hear that Iran's population is over 90 million or that Iran is nearly twice the size of Texas.
What Iran and Ukraine have demonstrated is that the old powers have a massive problem. The question is do we still need aircraft carriers in the age of drones? Are 5th generation fighter jets a useful tool in a 21st century war? The truth is that it's still unknown, but like the 1914 procurement when horse drawn carriage and infantry were the key to success in war only to find out that a wooden cotton covered aircraft could change the course of battle in an hour (it actually happened in 1917).
America's gulf allies are taking notes and have invested more than $10 billion into the Ukraine's war machine where they will eventually (very soon apparently) begin to receive anti drone, drones, matching or exceeding the capability of Iran's production. In the context, American's shield is less of a positive and more of an albatross. How long until the Gulf powers decide that America is not worth the trouble – my guess is that by the end of the year, most middle eastern US military bases will effectively be shut down (as part of the deal with Iran to stop the war).
In a sense, Trump's disorganized and self serving actions are accelerating an already started process. All of Europe now understands that America's weapons sales are conditional, in addition Trump indicated that he could "switch off" weapons of allies if he disapproved of their actions (he said this many times and not in private either).
The feared Russian army is being defeated by a middle power (Ukraine is not a small place). Trump has indicated (two weeks ago) that he is permanently reducing forces in Europe by half. The thing is 60% of European based US troops are either logistics specialists or medical staff. In reality the American military has already left Europe, and has clearly walked away from its NATO obligations, on the other hand Russia's army is a shadow of what it used to be. Germany, France, Poland and the Baltic states are all looking at drone technology to supplement their own armed forces to "repel" the Russian invaders.
This is a time where Europe had massively increased its defense budgets, and the big players (France, Germany and the UK) all had "advisors" in Ukraine for the past three years. They have seen modern warfare, and like their ancestors a 100 years ago, they are discovering that the landscape has changed. Ok, the UK has two aircraft carriers, but does it even need any, in an era of drone technology? In addition, the Americans are not near the forefront of drone tech – the American drones are still huge expensive machines, in a drone exchange, the ten $5,000 drone always wins against the $50 million drone! it's not even a contest.
The future has not yet been written, but the drafts are starting to paint a rather uniform picture. If America has to keep its fleet in the Red sea to avoid Iranian drones, its effectiveness is greatly degraded, America's gulf allies are taking note, and to maintain the metaphor, the writing is on the wall.
Until 2020, military leaders across the world would tell you that the American aircraft carrier fleet was the single most important weapon system in the world. The most effective source of force projection. If your aircraft carrier has to be 1,000 miles from your enemy, that force projection is greatly diminished. We are today in the same place the war strategists were in 1916. When they realized that the caverly's most useful aspect was the protein (they ate the horses), as tanks and aircraft changed the battlefield. 2024 was that same turning point, by 2026 the game is over, as Moscow burns and Putin has to choose – save Crimea or Moscow.
Warfare has changed in five years. Europe has largely not invested in the legacy system and has the benefit of investing in the new technology.
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