Thursday, May 24, 2012

More proof that the CAD is a Petro-Currency

So over the past few weeks, petrol has gone from $99/bbl to about $91/bbl.  During that time the CAD has gone from parity to the USD to 0.97 to the greenback.  Now my Western Canadian friends can say what they want but it remains that the correlation between the CAD/USD trade and the price of crude is well correlated (factor of 82% -- which is high).

Anyway, where oil price are going from here I have no idea.

On a related note several Shale Gas Cos are facing dramatic financial pressures.  Looking at the numbers it would seem that break even is around $8/MMBTU whereas price are around $2.6/MMBTU.  Turns out that the wells depletion rate is the issue -- Shale Gas Cos have been hiding the dramatic drop in production via faster and faster new drillings; a shell game that eventually blows up!

Turns out not only is Shale Gas exploration dangerous; its also a money losing proposition, who knew!


Anonymous invest in bamboo said...

The CAD is indeed a commodity currency. And of course the risk becomes "Dutch Disease". The average person thinks a strong currency is a good thing because it represents economic strength.However, while its great for those who may want to travel to Europe (or Greece if the Drachma returns), it is a disaster for manufacturing.

June 20, 2012 at 2:37 PM  

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