Friday, February 1, 2013

RIM & RIMM

Ok so RIM finally is ready to release the new version of the Blackberry -- incidentally they have changed their name to Blackberry, no more of this Research in Motion crap.  I fell in love with BB in 1999 when they first introduced two way pagers -- they were the rage in NY's financial district.  Then I got my first BB in 2003 -- it was a pure email machine but you could see how quickly it became ubiquitous, for a simple reason, it worked well.

I got my first "Blueberry" a few years later, an excellent machine with a phone included.  It was again a tool as good as the Iphone (or Samsung) machine is in providing something you didn't even know you needed!

Then the next 7 years were hell for BB, in fact, aside from new machines (when you are a heavy user they don't last very long), very little improved.  The internet access program was lacklustre  adding new programs was difficult, and for investors it was the "Nortel story all over again".

BTW for those who don't remember the "new" BB was first introduced 18 months ago at CES (Consumer electronic show) goes to show how far BB was from being ready -- still on Feb 5th if you live in Canada you can get a BB Version X.

The stock price has been a downward spiral, and the companies performance over the past few months has been terrible.  So with the upcoming release of the new BB the stock price rose over the past 5 months more than doubled.  Fine as fas as it goes stock price (that was once $148.00) was at $6 in early september and rose to $14.  Then the new BB is release and the surprise surprise the stock price falls.  Every analyst on the plante expresses wonder at the collapse;

Yet on of the first saying I every remember from broker friends is:  Buy the rumor sell the news -- this was true 40 years ago (before my time), and is still true today.  Either these analyst don't know anything, or they do and are playing the listening public for fools!  Nether is very complementary but are possible but the latter is more likely...

Will Blackberry survive, I don't know.  One thing I do know is that the shine is off Apple (stock price and technology) I still hate Android phones -- don't care what you say the UI is unusable rubbish.

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