Thursday, April 18, 2013

Trudeau as a credible prime Minister

Justin Trudeau son of Pierre Elliot Trudeau -- a famous and outspoken past prime minister was "anointed" as the leader of the Federal Liberal Party.  I say anointed because although there was an election he won with nearly 80% of the ballots cast -- in the first round.  Today we are at least two years away from a Federal election, and the election of Trudeau as the leader of the Federal Liberal Party is the "buzz" across the nation (to be fair its mostly the MSM talking to itself out of sheer boredom) .  His father was famous for bringing Canada's constitution back from Great Britain, and for introducing a Bill of Rights (to the ever damnation of the Quebec separatists).  So a 30 year old guy follows in the footstep of his father, many have been there before

Could Trudeau be a good prime minister?  Who knows, guys with spectacular resumé kind of sucked and some with ordinary achievement records were great.  Reading biographies of political leaders it is clear that nothing prepares you for that job... nothing at all!

One thing for sure he's got what it takes to win, he ran in a difficult riding (constituency) where the Liberals had not won for a long time (20 years).  So this is a man than can convince, he's a half decent orator, and seem to be able to surround himself with smart (even smarter than him) people.  That's the mark of a great leader -- so there's hope there.

On other news;

The world is falling apart, its official now (mind you it was kind of official a few months ago too)!  Apparently the IMF just figured out that Spain's debt level is unsustainable the fact that the IMF recommended (even forced) Spain to take drastic budget cutting actions is now announcing that these policies have impacted the economy is... well typical of the IMF really.  

The IMF here doesn't cover itself in glory by stating the obvious.  And in related news is there any relation here to the prodigious  fall of Gold prices?  One thing for sure something's up.  My first economics professor told us that supply and demand is what creates a price point, and when there is excess supply then the price falls!  Gold has gone from $1,900 an ounce to $1,400 an ounce, a rather large correction.    

The market signals are strange, aside from the set-up for a "head and shoulder" market (the possible precursor to a major correction), the US economy (the air and blood of Canada's growth) is giving mixed signals.  Then the growth is inventory, but average income is rising (median income probably not).  Apple (no position) seems to be in free fall too from near $700 a share to $396 today -- we broke the $400 level!!!.  Not sure why it keeps dropping with a p/e of 9.13 its not that expensive?  Markets do  strange things  sometimes (Henry Blodget today announced that he was buying Apple -- he though the price fall was ridiculous).  I watch the whole thing from afar with some level of bemusement.

On a Canadian front things are going So-So.  First off foreigners love of Canada seems to be ebbing:

Canadian equity positons are being sold off -- bonds are still being bought but equity are being sold mainly because the Canadian equity market is dominated by ressource company (35% at least) and material (from Gold to Copper) are going down.


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