Friday, June 13, 2014

US Q1 GDP bad news for Obama -- maybe good news for the GOP?

Numbers as published are always subject to revision.  The initial Q1 U.S. GDP number has been revised as more information was made available.  Today, the US government revealed that Q1/2014 GDP growth was revised downward from -0.7% to -2.0%.  Apparently healthcare costs that were assumed to grow by 9.9%, and account for about 15% of overall GDP actually fell by 6% instead.  This is a truly terrible number, one of the worse (top 10) since the end of WW2.  If that provides some perspective!

It's going to make the 3.5% target set by Wall Street difficult to achieve!  

In other news the boys on Wall Street are suffering, low volatility and a scarcity of new deals in the 2nd half of the year means that banks are thinking of trimming traders numbers and even IB guys are looking around in fear (let's not exaggerate) nevertheless it is we'll know that the bonus pools are shrinking, and that the banks are mindful of their overheads!

The usual exit strategy into private equity and hedge funds is also closing.  It appears that sell side guys are not so hot when working for the buy side.  Moreover PE funds and HF have had a terrible time over the past few years -- a strong market makes acquisitions difficult and excessive liquidity (in the form of HFT players have hurt HFs earnings -- HF will not admit that what has really hurt is the lower leverage they can now get, the cost of shorting stocks has gone up!

2014 will be hard for bankers and traders, please start a compassionate fund for these poor millionaires!  They can no longer afford the rolls they will have to downgrade to a merk or a Beamer 
Tough times all around for the 1%



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