Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Greece... are we there yet?

Nope!

In a nutshell there is no reason for anyone to take hard decisions, especially since no one knows the consequence of these decisions!  The reality that is Greece's economic melt down (and that it has less then 24 hours of cash at hand) is that no one has any interest in pressing the trigger, and forcing an immediate exit from the Euro.

The eventual departure of Greece from the EU monetary system (and maybe from the entire EU system) will be an error, a miss step, the unintended consequence of a "national interest decisions" that have little to do with Europe at large and everything to do with a probable internal policy breakdown.

Several months ago, when I predicted (and wagered) that Greece would eventually leave the Euro, my timeframe was entirely based on not any one "important" event because politicians are weary of grand gestures -- for which they can be held accountable.  Rather 24 months were necessary for not only the element of the crisis to take their full force, but for unintended events to occur.

I remain convince that the flash point will be this summer, when Europe has to vote, unanimously, for the renewal of Russian sanction -- following its annexation of Crimea.  America is certain to get involved in THAT process, and pressure will be heavy on Germany and France to make sure that everyone agrees on the strategy.  Greece has played the game well, so far, having public opinion on its side (the misery index is high -- but the government has resisted economic changes aggressively), but like all losers, eventually they will over play their hand... the easiest way to solve the Russia problem is to kick Greece out for "geo-political reasons".

The next vote will occur on or before July 31st 2015.  Of course the problem here extends beyond Greece (Cyprus and Hungary -- as is Italy) are still undecided, Cyprus because its a Russian banking center that got "bitchslapped" by the EU, Hungary is very pro-Russia and Italy is desperate to keep its Russian gas deal -- that so far has been excluded...

90-120 days from now...maybe

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