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Why am I always wrong?

 So; DB didn't go bust (2019), Bitcoin went to $60,000 (2020) Italy is still in the EU (2019), Boeing didn't go bust (2020), Greece is still in the EU (2016), Canada House prices are too high (2017)?

These are some of my comments.  On the Deutsch Bank front, I will say that the world of finance has been supported by the printing of money and the ability of banks, such as DB to refinance their obligation.  Fast money has kept them in the business, although it came close a few times and some very profitable businesses (its asset management business).  So DB was able to sell some very attractive businesses to reshape its future, and it had a good three years, stories are that its balance sheet is in much better shape today.  However, its share price is still far lower than in 2018, it's off by 30% while the CAC40 is up about 20% over the same period.  So DB didn't go bust but sold its asset management business to stay alive.

Bitcoin I got completely wrong, it went from US$3,000 to US$60,000 -- of course, it went back to 30,000.  Buying Bitcoin in 2017 would have been a great investment if you got out at $60,000 --- but in the past 6 months, it has lost 50% of its peak value ($64,000 to $29,755).  So I guess I was wrong there.  Still don't know why it rose to 60 and then fell to 30.  There is no reason for such a wide correction.

Italy and Greece, well that's all politics, but my guess is after all the fun that the UK has had with Brexit, everyone looked around and wondered what would be the cost of exiting.  Too high!  

Canada's house prices have gone insane over the past 3 years house price have risen by more than 30% across the country.  In Montreal alone in the past year house prices have risen by 18% (teranet index), and it's far worse in other parts of the country (Vancouver *& Toronto).  Why I got that wrong is because I failed to see the fundamental changes in the real estate market.  I left Montreal in 2015 and then in central Montreal a monthly rental of $2,500 was considered high.  Now you cannot find anything for less than $4,000.  This has fed the bubble, and in Canada mortgage rules are very different than in the US, fixed-rate mortgages are only for 5 years.  


Anyway, there's my explanation



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