Farmer Diaries

 In short nothing! The United Kingdom is suffering from the first real impact of Brexit.    As they say, the chickens are coming home to roost, and there's nothing to be done.   Europe had surplus production in almost everything, so they are looking at imposing trade barriers against the UK similar to what they impose on other countries, they are saving jobs at home, and the cost of these jobs is a slowing British economy, with fewer revenues and a bigger deficit.  In addition, most of the financial benefits of Europe (e.g., to farmers) were not replaced.  That's something I observed firsthand, we would get offers of European money, which in most cases were rejected, (one big exception was a grant for nearly 20% of the cost of our biodigesters).   The country will be poorer and will be poorer for several years, unfortunately, Europe will soon join us in this poverty, the impact of demographic decline.   Italy and Germany are the pro...

 The American President is now picking fights with allies and with Canada and Mexico in particular.   The on-again-of-again tariffs are set to be live on March 1, 2025.   25% of all Canadian goods, and 10% for energy.  The sector most affected is the automobile sector.   It was the CANADIAN GOVERNMENT, which imposed tariffs on US automobiles in the 1950s to protect the sector that gave rise to the Autopact and eventually Nafta.    The anti-immigration anti-illegal worker push is now affecting US industrial investments, the money is waiting to figure out where the dominos will fall, and this gives China time, which is all they need. The problem is obvious, Donald Trump's ADHD is kicking in, and for him, the China problem is solved.  

 In my "vast" experience in dealing with the civil service, there are numerous reasons for people to be there.  Surprisingly enough there are many types, but very few are incompetent, and some know very well that they could easily find jobs in the private sector for salaries that are multiple of what they are being paid. Donald Trump has offered to large swats of the civil service buyouts so that they leave.   The take-up has been surprisingly large, why because their view of "service:"  is being challenged and they are openly told that their services are no longer required, they are being paid to leave.    In virtually all cases that I am aware of, these were brilliant (I only know 4) men and women, the reason I  know is that all four found new jobs in the private sector the very next day.   The buyout was not the issue for them, it was not the money, it was the disrespect of the administration for their skills.  Not only that beca...

 In 2019, FDI in China totalled nearly 350 billion dollars.   In 2024, according to the Chinese government, it totalled 3.4 billion, a 99% collapse.    There are several reasons for the collapse, the most important is the increase in security and making almost any data state secret, it became impossible for companies to have a good sense of what was happening in China.   The second reason is COVID-19, the corporate link between foreign companies and their Chinese subsidiaries were broken during the almost two-year-long shutdown.   Third, for the past 8 years the trend toward foreign trade has been negative, first Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, but then Biden left them in place, and A bit later the Europeans did the same thing, the truth was that the trade imbalance between Europe and China and between the US and China has grown at double-digit speed.     My personal experience is inexistent, but if you cannot have a ma...

 Everyone knows how to spot a Canadian backpacker, the little Canadian flag, usually only the maple leaf is enough.   Well following Donald Trump's game with the Tariffs, Canadian retailers, especially in the food sector have begun adding little Canadian flags, my guess is that some retailers will soon come up with country of origin tags, for the Canadian, it may be worthwhile to differentiate American and Mexican goods.   The only reason I am aware of this was a couple of videos and a call from an old colleague who wants to go skiing in a few weeks, he's based in Vancouver and confirmed that many stores now use the little red flag.  the result has been startling, the boycott is real, and more importantly, retailers have begun putting "Canadian" merchandise at eye level.    It is hard to see if this trend will persist, but to many there its a signal, and if rumours are true the impact is real. Interesting

 Things are bad when Donald picks of fight with India.   total trade between US and India, about 40 billion dollars (aka peanuts).   What does America buy, pharmaceuticals are the most important, a lot of drugs on the shelves of your local CVS are from India.   What does America export to the US again ordinary stuff, equipment and machinery.   The question is why did Donald pick of fight with India of all places? Now Donald will institute a massive increase in tariffs, 99% of everything exported to the US can be exported elsewhere, and it will.   the only people who will suffer are American consumers, but they are the suckers anyway. The problem for Donald is that his only real target is China. Tariffs between Europe and America are almost the same, so reciprocal tariffs will have no impact on Europe. Tariffs in Europe are 5% vs. 3.2% in the US. Now, on Steel and Aluminum, the Europeans and the Canadians have a nice growth path. It ...

 Last December, we shut down the first business in which we invested; making baby food.   The reason was we were being sued for having glass in our food.  We took this very seriously and immediately shut down our production as soon as we heard that a client had found glass in her daughter's baby food, she was asking 100,000 pounds for distress and possible harm to her daughter.   We found this to be a strange reaction and so we asked for a sample of the glass, and what came out was that the glass was not from our pots.   In fact, none of the glass in our plant matched.  Because the ask was so large, the insurance company got involved as the Office for Product Safety and Standards. The managers, ourselves sat down with the various authorities and in the end, the decision was made to shut down the company, first because we could no longer get insurance, and as such the business was doomed.   In reality, the meeting was far shorter tha...

 I rode a cybertruck a year ago, while in Los Angeles.   It was fine, as far as it was, the road noise was a pain, and I thought that $120,000 was a bit much, but it was not my money.   A few things have emerged, first, the craze for electric vehicles has died down, I suspect that it's temporary, with Trump's stupid games there are stupid prizes and higher energy costs are a given.   Buying a Tesla 3 or Y when gasoline costs 8 dollars is easier to swallow. The one killer for the Tesla cybertruck was how hard and expensive it was to repair.   According to everyone I spoke to (and I spoke to two people who own one) the time and cost are much higher than for regular vehicles.   So few places specialize in dealing with electric vehicles. The impact of all this on Tesla has been epic from $450 a share to $350 in less than 45 days.   However, year on year the stock is still up nearly 75%, so stories of the demise of Tesla are gr...

 Over the past 75 years, America made a deal with the rest of the OECD, you get to sell your shit to our country and you will be our cannon fodder when the Russians invade.  That commitment to the rest of the world had been in decline since 1990 (aka the fall of the Berlin Wall etc).   Now, America is energy-independent (if you include Canada and Mexico) and doesn't give a crap about the world, America is the same as it was in 1890s -- they wanted out! Trump for all his faults (and there are a lot) declared something very wise, we will match each country's tariffs.   right now America imposes an average tariff of 3.2% (which covers all the costs associated with imports) foreigners don't pay taxes in the US for "services".   The vast majority of OECD countries impose far greater tariffs on US imports (the best of the lot is the UK with tariffs of 3.5%), Europe is at 5%, Japan and Korea at 11.5% and 13%, well you get where I am going with this....

 I mean, it says something about the country, but it is something that has been true for a few years now, it's just that our chickens are coming home to roost, and we only have ourselves to blame.  On the bright side, the country borrows mostly in its own currency, which it controls, the cost of future borrowing will rise, but it's the reality of living in a country that has told its neighbours to "fu$k off".  Whenever we go out I get taken to task for having worked in the City (aka the financial district), as if it was our fault that consecutive government took the easy road, and voters elected them.   Right now Labour is being blamed for the whole mess, granted they were largely silent during the whole vote for Brexit because it fitted their "plan" to restrict the flow of labour (don't ask but there were some serious morons in that party -- the Conservative did not have a monopoly on idiots).    So the UK is once again forced to face the reality that...

 The devil is in the details, and trust me, the details will kick Trump's ass!   The reality of Trump is that once he writes an executive order, he's basically done, the problem is that Republican congress does nothing with all the executive orders.   They are still anti-government, so nothing will happen.   What Trump has done is stopped the engine of government, with his buddy Elon on the side looking at running each department, according to sources every CIA employee has been offered a redundancy package.   What does this do?  It stops everything but that's the easy bit.  What's next?   It's not the Democrats in Congress that will do anything, they are basically treated by the new administration as the enemy, traitors to the nation.  On the Republican side, no new laws are being prepared.  why bother, fighting DEI is more fun, and gets your airtime (by the way having only white guys in charge is clear evidence...

 In 2019, the governor of California passed a new law which prohibited insurance companies from raising insurance premiums, without the express authorization of the California legislature.   This was following the massive brush fires that saw entire towns burned to the ground, and insurance companies re-pricing the risk of fire, following dry weather.  California enacted rules where clear brush cutting around powerlines was made illegal... That was the first blow to the insurance industry, which was already having issues across the entire country, excessive competition had kept rates too low for too long.    The second hit was the rise in the cost of construction, in 2018 the cost of a one-inch sheet of plywood was $24.15, and in 2024 the same sheet of plywood was $82.45.   The average annual cost of construction across the United States has grown by 8% per annum for the past 10 years.   Yet insurance premiums increases in California wer...

 The first thing to understand about Donald Trump is that he likes a free ride, it has been his life story.   So tariff presents the ultimate free ride, it's usually a tax on consumption (aka the poor) and it is "paid by foreigners" who don't vote for you. The backdown against Mexico and Canada is just the first step in the battle, the 10% tariff against China is nothing, the suspension of USPS from carrying goods from China is the real thing, that's a real trade war because it affects ordinary Chinese citizens and not big Chinese corporation (except TEMU).   On March 1st, tariffs will be imposed on Canada and Mexico.   Thankfully for Canada and Mexico, it presents an opportunity, a small one, but Canada can import orange juice from Mexico and all its fruits from Mexico too, instead of the United States.    The most immediate impact will be to kill the small car business of US manufacturers, and to increase the price of all US automobiles by ...