In my "vast" experience in dealing with the civil service, there are numerous reasons for people to be there. Surprisingly enough there are many types, but very few are incompetent, and some know very well that they could easily find jobs in the private sector for salaries that are multiple of what they are being paid.
Donald Trump has offered to large swats of the civil service buyouts so that they leave. The take-up has been surprisingly large, why because their view of "service:" is being challenged and they are openly told that their services are no longer required, they are being paid to leave.
In virtually all cases that I am aware of, these were brilliant (I only know 4) men and women, the reason I know is that all four found new jobs in the private sector the very next day. The buyout was not the issue for them, it was not the money, it was the disrespect of the administration for their skills. Not only that because they were made redundant the limitations on interactions with the Federal government don't apply.
Finally, and let's assume that Donald Trump is able to remove 40% of civil servants, the cash impact on the US Federal expenses would be less than 2%. Where the real cuts will come from are: Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security and Defence. These four account for 78% of Federal expenses, and 99% of those are cash payments for services provided by others (that and buying guns of course).
I was told last week that 90% of those in the foreign service who were offered a buyout took it.
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