Farmer Diaries

Yesterday, FIGMA raised nearly $1.2 billion from an IPO on the New York stock exchange.  It gave the company an initial valuation of $19 billion.  Odds are good that 99.99% of people, especially hear in the UK have ever heard of FIGMA, and what it does.  Think of it as the Google Doc of programming,  it's a massive simplification, but the analogy is not incorrect, it allows to create all kinds of programs in a collaborative format. Unusually virtually all the cash raised will be used to allow early investors to cash out from the company.  still it is amazing that a relatively new platform, about five years old is worth $19 billion.  Also the IPO was 40 times oversubsribed... Sometimes the creation of weath leaves me in shock!!!

 The issue is simple. What percentage of the economy is dependent on tariff goods? The truth, is that the US economy is far more closed than people understand. People genuinely believe that all manufacturing has ceased to exist in the United States all given to China on the altar of woke policy the truth can be further from That statement. Only about 15% of US GDP is related to foreign trade. Of that amount, slightly more than half is from Canada in Mexico. And half of that is energy. What that means, is that about 7% of US GDP is tariff dependent. The proof in the pudding, is how little money tariff generates. People think that 30 or 50 billion is a lot it’s not in an economy that has $3 trillion. The impact on the US economy will be less visible but not absent. Inflation hasn’t occurred yet first because tests have hardly started to bite, but more importantly it’s such a small percent of the economy. Now certain things are critical. The rare earth metals from China were critical....

 The deal with the European Union is interesting because the only people that really penalizes are American. It’s Americans who pay tariffs, not Europeans. Now I don’t want to ever emphasize the reality, one thing for sure, I want to put any money on the idea that the Europeans will buy a lot of American weapon systems, especially after the Americans have made it clear, then they can turn off the systems. The two biggest items on the agreement on the promise that Europe will purchase $300 billion worth of energy From America every year. The second, it said the European investors will increase investment into the US market by $600 billion. to the idea, that America will be able to double its energy exports, which is what is implied here. In 2024, America explored nearly $300 billion worth of energy, which included petroleum products, LNG, and coal. The truth, is that US sports are operating capacity. Someone’s gonna have to spend serious coins to increase the size of the ports. On t...

 The last few weeks have been miserable for Donald Trump. The Culmination had to be the almost daily revelation about the birthday book that is at the Epstein‘s home in Florida. Virtually every politician, or famous person, who was named in the book, who had contributed birthday wishes to Epstein, indicated, that they actually had written the letters, or cards. One single glaring exception. Donald Trump now let’s be clear. The whole Epstein thing has been pushed massively by Donald Trump and his friends. It was a conspiracy of all conspiracy. The blowback, he is facing now, is internally driven by his base. Now the elections, the midterms are in 18 months. That’s an awfully long time. 

 if it wasn’t so tragic, it would be funny. A week ago, the CEO of Nvidia, made a strong support of Donald Trump, saying that the policies of the American government was very good for US enterprise. Unfortunately, for Mr. Chang, four days ago, the statement for the end of June To his investors said a very different story. The truth, in the SEC filings, was the current administration policy was killing the business. You don’t need to Know much more to realize, but there’s two realities; one for politicians and One for the rest of us. The truth, according to SEC filing, is that the US government’s position on trade and Terrace is killing the business model for companies like Nvidia. He won’t stop the CEO to say the exact opposite when he’s a guest to the American president

 One of my best friends, is an investment banker in London. One of the big firms, for the past 25 years, has been going to New York at least six times a year. And to other destination at least four or five times a year all of these trips to the United States. My friend is British, the same way I am, except his grandparents were born in Jaipur, that’s in India for those who don’t know. My friend, is A 59-year-old banker, with a British passport having been born in London. The last two times he flew to the US. He was harassed by immigration. Now my friend is not white, and his name is not Anglo-Saxon, in fact his name is very very Indian. But he’s also very very British. Now twice, it’s been stopped at immigration for over three hours, this is despite having a visa for multiple entry. It’s not really a visa, it’s just a permission to come to United States. Pretty standard stuff, and very useful for a guy like my friend who travels to the United States every single month. Now, He’s im...

 honestly, it’s like the Americans don’t want any tourist. In Trump‘s big beautiful bill, a small addition to travelling foreigners expenses was added. A new $250 fee which in some circumstance could be reimbursable. Personally, I wouldn’t hold my breath.It is evident, that we are seeing the beginning of Fortress America. They don’t want foreigners, they don’t want imports, they we rich and alone. Close the border, close the blinds and tell everyone to go home.  It is evident, that we are seeing the beginning of Fortress America. They don’t want foreigners, they don’t want imports, they we rich and alone. Close the border, close the blinds and tell everyone to go home. in other news, the Epstein scandal continues. The way Donald Trump has enlisted the help of every agency in the government, including Congress, tells you everything you need to know about this scandal. Donald Trump is implicated. To go back in history, it’s important to understand that everything about the Epste...

 it takes a special kind of idiot, to think that he can antagonize his entire customer base, and think that it will not impact his business. When Elon Musk went to work for Donald Trump, and created the doge department, he antagonized every liberal, and these people represent 90% of his client base.That’s not a brilliant move. Now Elon Musk is worth hundreds of billions of dollar, so he shouldn’t care a great deal, however, he needs to care because of several other issues. The cyber truck has been a disaster, most have had to be recalled because of defective glue, it’s not a truck, it’s not a car, it’s noisy, relatively uncomfortable, but great as a development platform. What Tesla has learned in making car manufacturing more seamless is truly amazing. The problem was that Elon Musk was so pissed with the Democrats, and with Joe Biden, in particular because of some slight, which were just plain stupid too. By the way, that he decided to support with hundreds of millions of dollar, ...

 The only interesting affair about the Epstein debacle, is how this man was able to a mass, such wealth. When he died, his wealth was in the hundreds of millions of dollar he flew business aircraft, and yet he never ran a hedge fund, he never ran anything. He just seemed to exist, surrounded by rich people. There’s an old saying, follow the money and this is clearly not what happened. No one seems interested in understanding where this man’s wealth came from that’s a good question and that’s the question. No one wants to talk about. Finding Jeffrey Epstein‘s diary that shows everyone who flew to his island or on his aircraft is worthless,it’s certain that Donald Trump is often there, they were friends for two decades, not just friends, close friends, and they both like young women although it seems that Mr. Epstein like them even younger. The only funny thing about the Troubles that Trump is facing right now is that he’s the one who was dog, whistling the whole Jeffrey Epstein list...

 Actually, it’s pretty easy. Ignore them. You have no choice, Trump will change his mind every week for the next 3 1/2 years. That’s how Donald Trump operates, what’s important is the Donald Trump show. Nothing else. everyone knows that industrial investment in the US is lower now than since Covid. When the economy was effectively shut down. No one is building anything, firstly, because ice is continually harassing building sites, but more importantly companies cannot budget. From one Monday to the next, the whole trading world can be completely different. worse, yet, for the Americans, you’re better off, not investing in the United States at all, and just getting hit by the tariff once. What it does to America, is unclear. One thing for sure, for the next 18 months, there will be no industrial investment to the country. Maybe after the midterm, if and only if the Republicans are-chastised, will things get back to normal. But whatever normally is now, we bear no resemblance to what...

 I got several comments from friends and acquaintances, that I was exaggerating about how Americans were seeing foreigners, and how our reception at our last meeting in Northern Florida was disproportionate response to local unpleasantness. Now, I want to be clear, what I do with my tourism dollar is my business, and mine alone. As I’ve indicated in several previous post, almost every single visit I’ve undertaken in that country over the past year has had some form of unpleasantness.. If I’m honest, it’s the only country I visited where people feel perfectly at ease to insult you for no good reason, just because they’re assholes. The difference this time, was the escalation. But even if there had been no exclamation, the general mood in the country, and behaviour of its Citizens makes me less than interested in going back. Will I change my mind? Maybe, but life is short as a damn big planet. As a friend of mine said a few weeks ago, if she want to go skiing, try Chile, or even Japa...

 it’s time to start ignoring America. If any demonstration was necessary to indicate that there are no plans, but to disrupt, it was Donald Trump‘s announcement one week after his administration concluded a trade agreement with Vietnam, that Terrace would actually be 20% and not 11% as Had been agreed just a week prior. The Trump administration has no rhyme or reason, just division of a bull Boy that doesn’t remember what he did the previous morning. There’s no point in engaging demand, instead country should work hard at protect protecting their economy. imposing, across-the-board tariffs against American export, is idiotic. Targeted to support domestic economic goals is on the other hand a worthwhile initiative. Let’s be honest, there’s almost nothing we can do that. Will affect the American con in any global scope. People entirely forget that the US economy is by far the closest. Mexico, Canada, account for almost 60% of all trade. And about half of that is energy. The key, is g...

 Here we go again, now it’s 200% tariff on pharmaceutical imports, and 50% tariff on copper. Honestly, it’s hard to keep track of the man. You miss a day or two and suddenly you’ve missed massive increase in tariffs. It’s not quite evident, that all this is performative. Trump has no interest in anything but to be the centre of attention. Nothing is even more important than talk about Donald, and he loves it when people talk about him, even better when they kiss his ass. it’s hard to believe, that the world will have to suffer through 3 1/2 more years of this kind of bullshit. One thing for sure, countries are taking note, that any agreement with Trump is probably not worth the paper on which has been written. Since he will change it in their word in minutes.

 This conversation occurs because I was with my mechanic this morning. Sam, my mechanic on the farm, was bitching that new cars were not as reliable as old cars. what amazes me in his comment, was that the reality is otherwise. I remember my first jaguar. It was always broken, it was unreliable gas guzzler that cost a fortune. I remember, that I had owned the car for nearly 2 months when it decided it no longer started. No reason, the battery was fine, it just would not work. The Jaguar mechanic eventually found that the starter was broken. On a two month old car.  i’ve owned my current Toyota for nearly a year. It replaced an ancient, and reliable Land Rover, that unfortunately suffered from a broken axle, and severe rust. It was already 50 years old. Granted the Land Rover required, continual assistance, it had a carburetor, that needed to be checked every so often. The Toyota, a 2024 model, has required a single oil change. Every morning, I use the damn thing, and not once ...

 over the weekend, Saturday night to be precise, I joined several university colleagues for an annual get together in Cambridge. In total, there’s about 20 of us, not every year as everyone available, but as we grow older, and reminisce more about our lives, more and more are present. This year, the entire group was together for the first time in almost a decade.  One of the participant works for the government. His career has not been spectacular, but has been consistent through all administration over the past 20 years. He is considered by all as an expert in his field. We were sitting together, nursing a brandy, when asked point blank, how the British government had achieved a trade agreement with the Americans in such a short period of time. his answer was telling, he said well the home team needed a win, and Trump also needed a win, so we signed a shorthand version of a trade agreement between Britain and America, that covered about two dozen aspects of trade. It is by no...

 Imagine, if there were election today, the reform party would have 35% of the vote. Labour 30% and the conservative at 12%. The truth, it’s the reform party  is jam-packed with idiots, but populist always win. Let’s be clear, the current labour government is giving them a clean break. It’s actually Rather incredible how the reform party is basically setting up the political agenda. It seems that labour party, and the government, is unable to find its footing. Despite doing some good, they give Reform Party oxygen. Strange situation.

Every few months for one reason or another, my wife and I end up in the US. We just spent a weekend in Florida, for a wedding. We weren’t in Miami, rather north, near the border with Georgia. I noticed with my wife, for the first time in a long time, the immigration process was somewhat unpleasant. In the past, we show a British passport proof of a hotel and a return ticket. do The fingerprint thing and be in our way in a few minutes. This time not so much. It wasn’t the third degree. But there is a series of questions that had to do with a reason for our visit, what our best I would call politically motivated questions. Honestly, in 30 years of travel it was the first time ever such a thing happened. We returned two days ago, and both of us looked at each other and agreed the future travel to the US should be minimized, if not entirely canceled. The trip overall was unpleasant. When people heard a British accents disparaging comments were made more than once. We were not feeling very ...