Skip to main content

Day 4: Grandpa the Fox lover just finished his 75 minutes rant!

Now, I am no fan of party conventions, they are, as a whole, borring as hell.  In the case of the GOP not borring but sure close to hell.  Never mind the "faux-pas" of the the Trump family, who cares they are not running for office, but the overall tone was just short of a crazed informercial with Trump branded goods (didn't know he made wine or steaks!), but still the list of speakers was less then inspiring.  I don't know where Trump found these "winners" but my best guess is in an elevator just before the convention.  The most incredible was the vet who wanted Clinton to be shot for "Killing people in Benghazi"  or Carson on said that Clinton associated with the Devil (you know Satan, the fallen angel etc etc).  What to say about Cruz, he at least is consistent -- I still don't understand what the hell he was doing on stage on day 3 of that "clusterfuck".  

Until that point it was simple incompetence, and that's OK, you expect a convention, that is run on a shoe string budget to have a large number of errors and self inflicted wounds, although this was something else; from "lifting the words" from the First lady's own 2008 convention speech was careless, but that saying that Michelle Obama has not invented the english language to refute the plagiarism that was self-evident -- well that's just stupid.  The re-tweeting of far-right tweets by Trump (not once but dozen's of times) speaks of a darker candidate, and his acceptance speech of last night is just further proof.

There is no doubt that everything is not well in America, there is no doubt that globalisation has hurt the lower middle class disproportionately, there is no doubt that this segment of the electorate has turned to Fox and some of the crazier elements of talk radio as their sole source of information, and that as far as they are concerned they are about to be found guilty under Sharia Law, killed by Muslim extremists or assaulted by some transgender gay killer (clown...).  They dream of a better time, where lynching were Friday and Saturday night fun times, where N... & spicks pollacks and catholics knew their place.  The real America (according to these nuts) live in almost 100% white communities.

All this before Trump started his speech -- nice podium by the way!  75 minutes of "controlled" and scripted rage -- in those 75 minutes virtually all the tenets of the American conservative ideology were overturned -- Foreign treaties are to be abandoned (Putin must be happy) Nato to the scrap heap, trade deals, NAFTA, foreigners and build a wall to keep them out, and kick those out who are already there.  This was an evening of "mean Grandpa" unhinged, dark and resentful.  It was a speech to the insiders and not to America at large.  Unless you are a lower middle class ex-steel worker (white and a guy), virtually nothing in Trump speech has anything for you.

The reality that is America is a safer place, with fewer police being killed than at any time in the last 30 years.  Where unemployment is low by historical standards (at 5%) and were inflation is subdued. This is the same party to said that under Obama hyperinflation, contraction and unemployment would govern the country -- where Obamacare would kill people and jobs and would make healthcare costs spiral out of control.  None of these things happened.

Instead, over the past 8 years, the GOP and its friends have invented crisis where none really existed. Benghazi, sure it was a failure -- but lets look at the real reason -- (a) shit happens, (b) Congress has for years refused to increase appropriation for embassy security.  The most important is that "a" shit happens.  This incredibly dark speech spoke to the fears and desires of the most rabid segment of the GOP, the far-right was given a VIP media presence.  Xenophobia and parochialism were the order of the day.  There is no doubt that not one penny was spent to test Trump speech  -- because the only people it made happy are the people who probably think that Cruz, Rubio and their 14 friends were RINO and too far to the left.    

These are Trump's people, so what was that speech?  Who was it for -- one thing for sure, the GOP establishment will vote their conscience -- they will vote for Clinton.  However, for the GOP the damage is already done.  David Frum that was basically expelled from the GOP orthodoxy almost 8 years, must be very sad, for although all he presaged turned out to be true -- it leaves the party of Lincoln in a terrible mess -- only a massive loss (we are talking 10/15 points) will provide the GOP with a chance to reform, but right now, the GOP stands only a few points behind the democrats!

Still something tells me that the Democrats will run a very borring, middle of the road, America is the greatest country convention -- thank God, because the last 4 days will live on in infamy.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Trucker shortage? No a plan to allow driverless rigs

There are still articles on how America is running out of truckers -- and that its a huge problem, except its not a problem, if it was a problem salaries would rise to so that demand would clear. Trucking is one of those industry where the vast majority of participants are owner/operators and therefore free agents.

Salaries and cost are extremely well know, "industry" complains that there are not enough truckers, yet wages continue to fall... Therefore there are still too many truckers around, for if there was a shortage of supply prices would rise, and they don't.

What there is though is something different; there is a push to allow automatic rigs to "operate across the US", so to encourage the various authorities to allow self driving rigs you talk shortage and hope that politicians decided that "Well if people don't want to work, lets get robots to do the work" or words to that effect.

This has nothing to do with shortage of drivers, but every…

Every punter says oil prices are on the rise: Oil hits $48/bbl -- lowest since September 2016

What the hell?

How could this be, punters, advisors, investment bankers all agreed commodity prices  in general and oil prices in particular are on the rise...its a brave new era for producers and exporters -- finally the world is back and demand is going through the roof, except not so much!

What happened?  Well energy is complicated, the world operates in a balance -- 30 days of physical reserves is about all we've got (seriously) this is a just in time business.  So the long term trend always gets hit by short term variations.

Global production over the past 12 months has risen by somewhat less than 1.5% per annum.  As the world market changes production becomes less energy intensive (maybe), but the reality is that the world is growing more slowly -- America Q4 GDP growth was around 1.9% (annualized) Europe is going nowhere fast (the GDP growth in Germany is overshadowed by the lack of growth in France, Italy, Spain (lets say 27 Euro members generated a total GDP growth of 1.2…

Paying for research

This morning I was reading that CLSA -- since 2013 proudly owned by CITIC -- was shutting down its American equity research department -- 90 people will be affected!

Now the value of a lot of research is limited, that is not to say that all research is bad. In fact, I remember that GS's Asia Aerospace research was considered the bible for the sector.  Granted, there was little you could do with the research since the "buy" was for Chinese airlines...that were state owned.  Still it was a vey valuable tool in understanding the local dynamics.  It seems that the US has introduced new legislation that forces brokers to "sell" their research services!  Figures of $10,000 an hour have been mentioned...

Now, research can be sold many times; if GS has 5000/6000 clients they may sell the same research 300x or 400x (I exaggerate) but this is the key -- Those who buy the research are, I presume, prohibited from giving it away or selling it, at the same time the same rese…