Friday, July 1, 2016

Brexit: Its been a week....

Even a week is not enough to understand the impact that Beixit will have on the economy of that country.  As for the word at large:

S&P +3.3% - best week since Oct 2014 Bullard Bounce
"Most Shorted" stocks =10.1% in last 4 days - biggest squeeze since May 2009
Financials +3% - best week in 3 months
30Y Treasury yield to record low - best week in 3 months
Silver +11.25% - best week since Aug 2013
Gold up 5 weeks in a row
Oil +3.2% - best week in six weeks
Copper +5.5% - best week in 3 months

So not so bad really.  The market overreacted to a news that has still not defined what will happen next.  One thing for sure the power play in the UK is interesting -- both the Tories and Labour are looking for new leaders.  The French and German have made Europe's position very clear.  You got your referendum -- now invoke section 50 of the EU treaty, and let the games begin.

What is certain is that it will not be a lot of fun to be in the UK financial service.  Banks were already cutting back -- the decision to cut in Berlin (no not there) Paris (no not there either) or the UK (that's the place) will be accelerated.  Its not so much Brexit, but its a good excuse to get out of paying a bunch of M&A bankers (and everyone else) because fewer deals will be had -- uncertainty will create havoc with company's valuation.

Europe knows that the UK is out, and although a referendum is non-binding (look at the Dutch) the UK's tradition run deeper (which is kind of funny since its traditional bigots that got the UK out of Europe), even if the vast majority of parliamentarian are against Brexit, the people have spoken -- and their voices cannot be ignored.  

The fundamental issue (its also true for the US) is that there is something rotten in the Kingdom!  The reality is that the population is concerned.  The pace of change, new technologies and the failure of the social net are all things that need to be address.  Capitalism has run the world for the past 30 years -- taking care of the winner but leaving all others holding the bag!  

The signals are there, and the likes of Boris and Donald have been very good at channeling these tendencies.  The body politic should pay attention...


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