Skip to main content

Rag Tag Stuff:

Snow in Canada:

Saturday we got a foot (20cm) of snow in Montreal, the city is beautiful all in white, sidewalks are still a little slippery, but the streets are more or less clear of snow.  I guess we are used to the white stuff, which reminds me I cannot think of anything scarier than flying from a “southern” airport after snow storm.  These guys don’t know what deicing is all about.

Canadian dollar, Yield Curve and Interest rates

Still trading above parity with the US dollar, it seems a permanent fixture now.  The interest rate differential on 30 year bonds between Canada and the U.S. (89 bps) seems to be permanent.  The Bank of Canada has the option of raising rates on March 1, 2011.  Some (David Rosenberg) believe that the BoC will retain overnight rates at 1%, I disagree, although 65% of the new January jobs were government related, 23k were created by private enterprise (which is more than the target jobs growth penciled in for Canada by pundits).  The only issue for the BoC is can we afford to have such a dramatic difference between U.S. overnight rates (0.25%) and Canada (1.25%).  Of course if the world ends tomorrow, copper price fall, energy prices fall the loonie will take a hit.

Manufacturing productivity

Some very interesting research done by a Canadian bank came into my possession.  Basic message is that manufacturing productivity in Canada (and more important unit labor costs) is very positive for Canada – despite a 30% appreciation of the CAD for the past 4 years (they compare very favorably to the U.S.).

Canadian House Prices

What is one to say, a REMAX study today shows that over the past decade the average annual increase in the Canadian house price has been around 7%.  Not many markets can claim this kind of growth…. We’re rich, we’re all very rich!

Spring Elections

I don’t watch that much TV, but I’ve seen my third political add in the past 10 days – on how great a job the current government is doing.  Seems to me that we can expect elections in the spring.  How about May 15/16 would seem optimal, it will give the government a chance to make a nice “give away” budget.

Popular posts from this blog

what people get wrong about tariffs

 The issue is simple. What percentage of the economy is dependent on tariff goods? The truth, is that the US economy is far more closed than people understand. People genuinely believe that all manufacturing has ceased to exist in the United States all given to China on the altar of woke policy the truth can be further from That statement. Only about 15% of US GDP is related to foreign trade. Of that amount, slightly more than half is from Canada in Mexico. And half of that is energy. What that means, is that about 7% of US GDP is tariff dependent. The proof in the pudding, is how little money tariff generates. People think that 30 or 50 billion is a lot it’s not in an economy that has $3 trillion. The impact on the US economy will be less visible but not absent. Inflation hasn’t occurred yet first because tests have hardly started to bite, but more importantly it’s such a small percent of the economy. Now certain things are critical. The rare earth metals from China were critical....
Post a Comment
Read more

Trump and Venezuela...

The US now owns Venezuela…and not in a good way.  America is not known for its nation building skills, and yet it now owns the disaster that is Venezuela.   Starvation and exodus are the natural progression.   In addition it will become a haven for narco-terrorists, more so than it already was. I am sure that Trump and his friends really thought that little attack very well…I guess that he will now attack Iran now.  
Post a Comment
Read more

Demographics

 I am preparing a kind of family tree for our children so that they know where they came from.  In my family I am the only survivor, although my brother and sister died recently they were both in their seventies (a story I told already).    It was a fun process, but it provided more than that.  First, I married relatively young I was 26 when I married and nearly 30 when our first child was born.   I was looking at my ancestors.  On my mother's side, she had 6 siblings, Four died before the age of 30, two in war, and two from illnesses.  Only she and a single sister survived.   The two boys had a child each but they died in WWII, and the other sister died as an infant.   what is interesting is that every one of my mother's siblings had children in their early 20s.   I know that my mom was hardly 20 when my brother was born.    What is remarkable is that among our friends, we are the only ones to have fou...
Post a Comment
Read more