Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Why Trump can win!

This is obviously not a good outcome (so that we are all clear about my political inclination).  But nevertheless it is very possible.  Over the past few months Trump has said some rather horrible things about many many individuals:
  1. McCain is not a real hero (McCain still supports Trump)
  2. Clinton should go to jail
  3. American judge cannot be impartial because he is of Mexican descent
  4. Clinton is responsible for Benghazi
  5. Every Muslim is a enemy combatant in waiting -- including the father of a slain American solider
  6. I had nothing to do with the organisation of the GOP convention...
  7. The primaries are rigged (yet he won...)
  8. The elections will be rigged (if he doesn't win)
  9. The debate schedules are rigged
This is just stuff over the past few days and stuff I remember.  What is important to understand is that Trump is only the natural extension of the GOP's policies over the past 40 years.  Until Trump the GOP has not been overtly racist -- it is today (which begs the question why any non-white could support the GOP -- I mean this is a party that hates you for your skin color).  Bottom line the GOP's 1965 - 2015 Southern strategy has been driven by racism and xenophobia.  Until now it has never been overt, until now it has never been explicit, but the massive polarisation of America over the past 20 years -- exacerbated by the election of Obama (a black man as president is inconceivable to many Americans).  The 2008 was the most "white" convention ever, that's until the 2012 convention and this has just been surpassed by the 2016 GOP convention that was 99.9% white (still it means there were a few dozen hispanic/indians/blacks in the crowd).

Why was Trump so successful in the primaries?  The first reason is that by being "politically incorrect" he said in plain langage what the GOP has been saying for 40 years in code.  Talk radio and FOX news carried this point across very clearly.  In fact, the problem the other 16 or so candidates had was that they fundamentally agreed with his point of view -- they just were unable to say it outright.  Hypocrites in religion have been the first to give up, the Christian right has allied itself early on to a two times divorces guy who's knowledge of the bible is...well is so shallow that he doesn't know what is Second Corinthian (or that its not Corinthian 2:  the sequel).

On the other side is the uneducated lower middle class -- the blue collar workers of America that were, until the election of Reagan, at the core of organized labor and who since then have had their asses kicked by the system.  In fact, this last group that used to vote Democrat is now best know as supporters of the GOP, go figure.

Finally, and more serious, both parties have sold out to the 1% -- to Wall Street at the detriment of main street.  The 2008 bailout is a case of Wall Street screwing up and main street paying the bill, since then Capital controls everything.  both parties have become the lapdog of big money, because running for election is expensive.  The success of the NRA is the most visible embodiment that the US electoral system is broken; something like nearly 70% of Americans want stricter gun control, and yet it is virtually impossible to do anything about guns in America. Other lobbies are less visible but no less successful -- hence the immense and improbable success of Bernie Sanders, a 70 year old jew from a tiny state -- but a real socialist who bucked the trend. He gave a voice to the disenfranchised mass that see nothing the the Dems or the GOP, they only see the same gang making off with all the loot.  Think about it, Sanders came somewhat close to being the first jew to be the nominee for the Dems... that too would have been a first!

On one side there is now Trump:

  1. A racist, 
  2. demagog 
  3. know nothing 
  4. thin skinned bully
  5. Questionable business practices; made money even when businesses failed (bad partner)
  6. Loves dictators -- especially Putin
  7. Subject of multiple lawsuits (unpaid bills, other practices)
  8. Questionable success -- made money even when businesses failed (bad partner)
On the other side there is Clinton
  1. A women  (for many this is a very very bad thing)
  2. At times questionable judgment 
  3. real track record of achievements
  4. Very close to Wall Street
  5. Clinton Foundation got a lot of foreign government cash (see 2 above)
  6. Poor speaker

There you have it.  In reality the situation is serious because the electorate now see's the other side not as a loyal opposition but as traitors!  The GOP has made of the minorities good for nothing thieving illegals that should go home as they take real American's jobs.  The GOP sells itself as the party of Law and Order -- based on false statistics and bluster. The GOP sells itself as the party of God and yet seems to be completely ignorant of christian tenets (although they do seem to love the old testament...).  the GOP conveyed a dark past and a darker future -- where only Trump can be the savior! The GOP has a real problem with its convention, this one was terrible, but we forget that the past two didn't go so well.  My favorite was the 2008 one when some aggressive preacher asked for the rathe of God against the Democratic convention -- what actually happened is that the GOP's convention was cut short because of a hurricane.

What was amazing, out of the Democrat convention, is that it was the patriotic party it was the party of possibility and it was the party of inclusion (at least on stage), and it was the party of hope.  On the fourth day of the Dem's convention there was a real effort to bring home the weak Republicans, those appalled by the latest comment by Trump.





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