Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Investors: What is better Democrats or Republicans

Off the top, you have to say that the past three administration are a case and point that a Democratic president are better than a republicans for investors; During Clinton's 8 years and during Obama's 8 years the S&P 500 has been a very very strong performer, no su much for both Bushs

In 2015 DILJ did a study, their conclusion was:

There really shouldn't be any debate; on a historical basis, Democratic presidents are better for the stock market. The saying that Republican Presidents are better than Democrats for investors continues to be one of the bigger misconceptions there is in the investment world.
Yet, most investors (and a good portion of Wall Street) is for the Republican?  So there has to be something that the GOP offers that the Dems don't.  One thing for sure, GOP has been a big tax cutter for the richer parts of the electorate.  Again and again you see GOP elected at the state level lowering taxes on the wealthiest (often creating massive fiscal imbalance), but all that these "rich folks" gain from lower taxation they seem to lose from the market.

An excellent example is the impact of ACA (aka Obamacare) granted there are still massive problem with the law as it is written, with the GOP in congress doing everything to block it  (instead of amending) or even in some case making it even more difficult to function, there is no doubt that for the country as a whole it has been a very good thing, it has reduce medical expenses growth rate dramatically.   However, it is very far from being perfect.  Unfortunately the GOP's decision to delegitimize the White House and its occupant make any reasonable reform impossible.  Yet it has been very good for the US economy -- it has absolutely reduced medical costs as a percentage of GDP.  That is good for overall economic wellbeing and for the markets.

So what's up now with the options of Trump and Clinton.  To say that Trump had a bad two weeks would be an understatement of massive proportion.  The right tried, and failed, to imply that Clinton had done the same thing -- except she had not.  Yes she took a US$ 700,000 hit on her portfolio, but the tax reduction is only in her capital gains which was apparently $3,000 -- in 2015 her and her husband paid almost US$ 3 million in taxes.  This scandal is different because Trump has not paid taxes for 20 years -- he has not yet said that he actually paid taxes -- he was very careful to not imply that he did!!!

Clinton is doing well, sure she's not liked but then she was associated with Bill so has no ability to make any Republican happy.  Moreover, as Secretary of State she made mistakes -- it comes with the job.

Aside from all that its all good, it would see that Clinton will win the elections.  

We can only hope, 


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