It seems increasingly clear that Clinton will be elected president
on November 8th and as soon as the partying has stopped some hard questions
will need to be asked by both parties. The Republican will probably face
the hardest review: How can the GOP continue when its policy seem to be
aimed at uneducated white males? The rejection of all others and the
spectacle that was DJT is certain to force the party to have another difficult
review.
Another aspect of
the review is the marriage that the GOP made with talk radio and groups such as
Fox. This has led the party to more and more extreme positions, not based
on any specific drive but as a rating driver for talk radio and FOX. On
the other hand the shine seems to have come off FOX over this election cycle --
it may save the network!
We can already see
some important changes:
The monolithic
Christian right is no longer a sure thing for the GOP.
Granted the the break could be temporary should Cruz come back in 2020
(or Paul Ryan) then they may go back into the fold. Although its far from
certain...once other options have been examined and considered!
Freedom Caucus could breakaway from the GOP, this ultra conservative group
is becoming unmanageable within the GOP caucus, where a group of 42 Congressmen
(out of 435) seem to block all legislation that doesn't meet their exacting
standards. Should the Senate return to the Democrats (something that is
increasingly possible -- probability in the 65% range) then their position
would become untenable, without a majority (GOP) the power of the Freedom
Caucus is seriously eroded. Other Republicans can vote with the Democrats to
get things done (since they will not be blocked in the Senate). Anyway,
the FC represent the kernel of a new political entity within the framework of
the American electoral system. it would also follow a pattern of more extreme
right wing views as mainstream in other countries.
Dichotomy
between party members and the beltway intelligencia: In both parties there is a breach between Beltway and
"Core" party members; the strength of Bernie Sanders' vote (still
substantially behind Clinton, but this is a Senator from Vermont -- and a
socialist to boot and until two weeks prior to the primary was an independent
-- not a Democrat). This dichotomy between "core" and
"beltway" party members is troublesome for both parties -- more so
for the GOP that has been playing dog whistle with nativist (or plainly
racists) policies for decades. The Southern strategy was driven by a desire to
turn back the clock of desegregation -- The South that had been Democrat for
nearly a century became republican.
The soul searching
will be more immediate for the Republicans; first in 2012 they tried (driven by
Beltway Republicans) to draft a new way forward, just to have Trump go the
exact opposite direction. For both the establishment was attacked successfully
by outsiders; Clinton was forced more to the left, and the GOP went to the far
right (anti-Semitic, racist and xenophobic positions). This was never the
intention of beltway Republicans -- and yet the base (which I call the Core)
saw things differently -- they saw a different way driven in large part by more
than 8 years of aggressive anti-democratic (and anti Democrat) statement.
It is truly difficult to change the mind of people that believe that UFO
exist (nearly 20% of Trump's supporters believe in UFOs).
Finally, there
is WWDJTD (what will Donald J Trump Do?). The end game has to be something
else than winning the elections, his behavior in the third debate was that of a
man who was trying to reassure his base -- not of a candidate that was trying
to expand his appeal. Considering his ratings its strange behavior if
winning elections is the objective. One
has to wonder if the stories of new Trump network are true o just more BS. Trump is running a strange champagne,
declaring that if he is not the winner then the results were fabricated, that
people are out to get him (although that may be true…). He sounds more unhinged the closer we get to Election
Day. Very strange behavior, unless
winning the election was only a byproduct of his real strategy.
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