First off, having dinner two weeks ago with a long lost friend who worked in the first tier supplier segment to Boeing (e.g. guys who provide major subsystems), and gave me the "lowdown" on the birth and growth of the B737MAX. None of this is confidential, in fact, all of it is available via different sources, what is unusual is the confluence of linked event that makes the whole saga look and feel a lot worse.
This person is very well regarded by a number of world-class airline CEO, and once the Ethiopian airline crash occured he actually called them individually and suggested that they really really should ground the aircraft, that there was a fundamental problem that Boeing had overlooked.
I really cannot make the connections here, it would basically reveal my source, again its not that the information is unknown just that he's put the events together because of his position in the industry, his knowledge of the players and literally having "no skin in the game", despite his industry position!
Bottom line Boeing is going to be in a world of hurt! Its reputation will be seriously damaged and its management will face the repercussions for years to come. From our dinner, it's clear that Boeing will need many many years to rebuild its reputation. It's even possible that it will be forced to "build a new wing" for the B737MAX (if that's the solution) to return Boeing's to its past reputation.
We didn't talk about the B787, we didn't really talk about self-certification (although in his opinion that is a non-issue since he says that these guys are very professional). The implication is that Airbus will dominate for the next few years and it opens to door to new competitors (Chinese, Russian, Japanese???). The bottom line for Boeing this is a long term disaster because of what will emerge about who knew what and when what promises were made to operators as to aircraft delivery slots and a number of technical decisions that had those in the know shaking their heads in disbelief.
BTW this is not a "criminal conspiracy" in fact, its the opposite of that. Its a company trying to achieve something quickly to meet client demands -- not a bad idea, but the implication with something as complicated as an aircraft cause sub-optimal decision making. The reason for each decision could be seen as logical in the highly competitive environment of aircraft manufacturing, but these decisions have a real-world impact -- that affect two of Boeing's most successful programs (737 and 787).
It reminds me of Liars Poker the book by Michael Lewis, where his then boss at Salomon Brothers (the bond desk) suggested that he think through the consequence of certain actions by issuers on the price of the new issues and on the price of older issues.
The game here is what will consumers (airline and paying passengers) do when they "discover" that the aircraft they are about to board is a B737MAX... That is something that the airline marketing department will have to ponder when the consider purchasing a Boeing aircraft. That's the long term implication. Some people will forget, but the issue is that 5% to 10% will not (nervous flyers) and they will create the fuss, that the marketing department may listen too!
That's the issue
This person is very well regarded by a number of world-class airline CEO, and once the Ethiopian airline crash occured he actually called them individually and suggested that they really really should ground the aircraft, that there was a fundamental problem that Boeing had overlooked.
I really cannot make the connections here, it would basically reveal my source, again its not that the information is unknown just that he's put the events together because of his position in the industry, his knowledge of the players and literally having "no skin in the game", despite his industry position!
Bottom line Boeing is going to be in a world of hurt! Its reputation will be seriously damaged and its management will face the repercussions for years to come. From our dinner, it's clear that Boeing will need many many years to rebuild its reputation. It's even possible that it will be forced to "build a new wing" for the B737MAX (if that's the solution) to return Boeing's to its past reputation.
We didn't talk about the B787, we didn't really talk about self-certification (although in his opinion that is a non-issue since he says that these guys are very professional). The implication is that Airbus will dominate for the next few years and it opens to door to new competitors (Chinese, Russian, Japanese???). The bottom line for Boeing this is a long term disaster because of what will emerge about who knew what and when what promises were made to operators as to aircraft delivery slots and a number of technical decisions that had those in the know shaking their heads in disbelief.
BTW this is not a "criminal conspiracy" in fact, its the opposite of that. Its a company trying to achieve something quickly to meet client demands -- not a bad idea, but the implication with something as complicated as an aircraft cause sub-optimal decision making. The reason for each decision could be seen as logical in the highly competitive environment of aircraft manufacturing, but these decisions have a real-world impact -- that affect two of Boeing's most successful programs (737 and 787).
It reminds me of Liars Poker the book by Michael Lewis, where his then boss at Salomon Brothers (the bond desk) suggested that he think through the consequence of certain actions by issuers on the price of the new issues and on the price of older issues.
The game here is what will consumers (airline and paying passengers) do when they "discover" that the aircraft they are about to board is a B737MAX... That is something that the airline marketing department will have to ponder when the consider purchasing a Boeing aircraft. That's the long term implication. Some people will forget, but the issue is that 5% to 10% will not (nervous flyers) and they will create the fuss, that the marketing department may listen too!
That's the issue
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