Skip to main content

VIA Rail --- big secret Toronto Montreal high speed link better without including Quebec City

So CTV news came out with  "secret report" commissioned by ViaRail that to build a $4 billion high-speed rail link should not include Quebec City...now that's a real surprise!  (no not really at all).  The world's investment banks have been telling ViaRail that the most logical option was actually to "exclude" Montreal and Quebec City from a high-speed corridor.  Now, this analysis was done 20 years ago (I know I was the architect of one of these studies -- I know at least two other IB guys who said the same thing, something that ViaRail didn't want to hear at the time).   To give you a sense of timing all this took place prior to 9/11.  Since then Montreal has grown tremendously -- slowly catching up to the rest of Canada!

Our conclusion, at the time, was there very little demand for travel from Quebec City to Toronto and only marginal traffic to Ottawa that was served daily (with a 42 seat aircraft), don't know the aircraft now, but there is still only one direct flight per day...20 years on!  It was impossible at the time to justify a high-speed rail link (there is already a relatively fast train between Quebec City and Montreal -- the added speed is probably not worth the effort -- more interesting would have been higher frequency).

Anyway, the results still show today, 20 years later that there is very little demand for traffic between Quebec City and Ottawa and Toronto, the added speed between Montreal and Quebec City would be better served with higher frequencies rather than a high-speed train.

Transport economics is interesting and most people misunderstand the working components; obviously, the time it takes to get from A to B is important, but that's not all -- there is also convenient to get to city-center (where trains win big) and also, even more importantly, frequency.  If there are only two trains a day, and you miss the train, your total journey time has increased dramatically since you have to wait for the next train.

It is actually the argument being made for improving rail services to the suburbs should be done by increasing frequency -- if the travel time is 30 minutes by train but you've got to wait 1 hour between trains, then your average travel time is 60 minutes (30+30), but if there's a train at the 15 minutes then your travel time is 37 minutes (30+7).  Frequency is key, and it actually promotes ridership.

The other issue, high speed, let's say that Quebec City to Montreal can justify 4 trains a day ( not impossible but it means 2,000 riders per day -- on average).  Because of the rail configuration and the right of way for freight trains higher speed link would require brand new rails.  Still the distance of 250 KM, right now the train takes 3 hours, you could reduce that slightly by having a deal with CN (maybe) so that the train could attain a top speed of 150 KM/h, but right now they are limited to 100 km per hour.

Anyway, once again ViaRail doesn't want to hear the truth, that demand for high speed rail is really in the Windsor, Toronto, Ottawa corridor....Montreal could be added but the cost would be substantial because of the building of so many viaducts. 

Anyway, the secret is out!


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Spray painting Taylor Swift G650 aircraft (updated)

 First, a bit of paint will not harm anyone.  These climate activities are going to learn two things in the next few days:  (1) Trespassing at an airport is a felony almost anywhere in the world.  That means criminal prosecution.   (2) removing paint from an aircraft is expensive.   So these climate activists are about to find out the reach of the British criminal system and it will not be pleasant, the UK has very strict laws about that, I would be surprised if cleaning the aircraft of all the paint will cost less than $100,000.     I am sure that when they planned (premeditation) this little show they had a very valid logic to doing this.  Tonight, they are probably realizing the depth of their troubles.   I understand that in the UK it's a minimum one-year jail sentence.    Also, good luck travelling with a criminal trespass charge against you.  I am relatively certain that the airline industry will ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Tariffs on inhabited Island

 Two seldom-visited islands, part of Australia, saw a massive increase in the tariffs they will face when exporting to the United States.   The 32,000 residents did not have much to say...being Penguines.   NO kidding, massive tariffs were imposed on Heard Island and McDonald Islands.  According to the Australian government, the last visitor to Heard was about a decade ago.   Never mind the 47% tariff on Madagascar, where the principal export is Vanilla and the GDP per capita is less than $500 a year. Not only a Stable Genus but evidently an administration that took all of two hours to proof the list of countries.    They also treated St Pierre & Miquelon, two islands part of France in the middle of the St Lawrence Gulf...
Post a Comment
Read more

Britain, France and Egypt

 The voters realize now that the Conservative Praty desire to return to 19th-century dominance has driven its hatred of the EU.  The voters realize now that departure from the EU has accelerated Britain's decline and may soon make it irrelevant.  At best it will have to kiss American arses to maintain its standing.  For this, the conservatives were punished.  The decline of Britain was inevitable, competition from Frankfurt and Germany in Finance was bound to grow.  The core of Europe (aka Germany) is aging quickly Macron seems to be winning his bet, the left alliance that won the legislative elections will not remain united for long, since they disagree on about everything.   The Far right though it was about to assume power is once again relegated to the back of the bus.   It may draw its own conclusions, but not all of these are good for France.  The far-right has won nearly 1/3rd of the electorate, that is not something to be ig...
Post a Comment
Read more