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Showing posts from December, 2019

Trade agreement, trade war and China (Revisited)

First, everyone should listen to the Hidden Force podcast , it's a revealing and very interesting discussion about politics, economics on a global scale. Addendum:  It seems that a trade agreement is on the table, again, with China and that they are working on the final wording.  First, is Trump's promise that China will import $200 billion of US goods.  If you consider that agribusiness is the #, and it peaked at $79 billion (at today's price it would be around $60 billion) its hard to see how this will be achieved.  It all seems like a massive clime down by Trump (but again it's hard to know since the whole thing is "shrouded in secrecy" granted the final document has not been drafted or signed.  But overall, Trump back down on tariffs -- and it's not entirely clear why.  What is clear is that $200 billion is wishful thinking and will eventually cause more trade friction.   Yesterday, Trump announced new tariffs on Brazil and Argentina, beca...

Mexico -- the land of the future!

It's a well-known joke about Africa:  Africa's future is brilliant with economic growth...always in the future! As for Mexico, things are looking bleak, sure AMLO can easily blame the great Satan to the North, but so many many issues are purely domestic...its a sad fact that Mexico's economy will end the year in recession, although there is still a month to go! The truth is that AMLO exercised political power, as its predecessors had before him, with little thought as to the economic consequences: (1)  Pemex was a mess long before President Obrador took power, in the last year of the previous administration, the state had to inject massive cash into the state-owned oil company just so that it could meet some of its long-overdue bills. (2)  CFE was trying to modernize, but things were slow and sometimes very competent engineers would demonstrate their complete lack of financial literacy -- really it was no their job! (3)  The school reform has stalled, and t...