It's a well-known joke about Africa: Africa's future is brilliant with economic growth...always in the future!
As for Mexico, things are looking bleak, sure AMLO can easily blame the great Satan to the North, but so many many issues are purely domestic...its a sad fact that Mexico's economy will end the year in recession, although there is still a month to go!
The truth is that AMLO exercised political power, as its predecessors had before him, with little thought as to the economic consequences:
(1) Pemex was a mess long before President Obrador took power, in the last year of the previous administration, the state had to inject massive cash into the state-owned oil company just so that it could meet some of its long-overdue bills.
(2) CFE was trying to modernize, but things were slow and sometimes very competent engineers would demonstrate their complete lack of financial literacy -- really it was no their job!
(3) The school reform has stalled, and the then government lost interest, then AMLO decided to give up and give back control to the teacher's union...I'm sure it's for the best!
(4) Public works (Hospitals, rail, and airport) were all going off the rail with expenses way above-contracted amounts. It was evident, in almost all cases that theft, bribery and other forms of crime had been committed and cash and resources had been misappropriated on a scale that was almost unimaginable. So the new President takes immediate action; it's not entirely clear if he had any real thought as to what he was doing if he had consulted experts (probably not, he's very much like Trump that way, he hates experts), and proceeded to "slash and burn";
First was the new airport that was large enough to accommodate growth for the next 20 years, instead, Mexico city will have three airports... two of which have serious issues. Moreover, his finance "guru" failed to understand that a state guarantee is still a state guarantee, so US$ 9 billion had to be paid off to the lenders (on a total of US$ 17 billion).
Second, he stopped the building of 39 public hospitals, but he also cut doctor's salary so, in the end, they didn't need the hospital since som many doctors left and went into private practice.
In terms of official political objective AMLO offered (a) "an end of corruption, and (b) Security. He seems to have delivered on "a" above, and there are now ways to denounce those who seek bribery. So that would appear to be a win for him and his government (hey you get one every so often). But even then, he did either stupidly or callously -- terminated all shelters for battered women (all of them) and so far no replacement, shut down all the state-sponsored daycare centers. Again, his solution was to give MXN 500 per month when the cost was a multiple of that.
He promised SECURITY and delivered anything but security, his new police force was deployed on the southern border to stop migrants from reaching Mexico's northern border. In fact, Trump's administration was right on that one, if you want to ask for asylum you have to ask it in the "First country in which you arrive" So that would be Mexico.
On external forces he tried to be politically savvy with Trump, he completely failed to understand that Trump could not be reasoned with -- he simply cannot understand what is being said to him and uses FOX news as his policy guide. So the yoyo with Mexico and Canada harmed both economies. In a sense he was right, both Mexico and Canada are far too dependent on the US (something I have said for years).
There were a number of stupid "own goals" that harmed the economy, but the truth is that since AMLO came to power, security that was a small expense item for companies and individuals is now a larger item, that the US played games with its southern neighbor is evident and has been harmful tot he economy.
Will 2020 be better for Mexico? it is hard to say, the tools are not in place, Pemex is still facing the same problems it did two years ago, CFE seems to be in worse shape ever, as the private projects that were commissioned in 2017 /2018 come on line no new project
May you live in interesting times!
As for Mexico, things are looking bleak, sure AMLO can easily blame the great Satan to the North, but so many many issues are purely domestic...its a sad fact that Mexico's economy will end the year in recession, although there is still a month to go!
The truth is that AMLO exercised political power, as its predecessors had before him, with little thought as to the economic consequences:
(1) Pemex was a mess long before President Obrador took power, in the last year of the previous administration, the state had to inject massive cash into the state-owned oil company just so that it could meet some of its long-overdue bills.
(2) CFE was trying to modernize, but things were slow and sometimes very competent engineers would demonstrate their complete lack of financial literacy -- really it was no their job!
(3) The school reform has stalled, and the then government lost interest, then AMLO decided to give up and give back control to the teacher's union...I'm sure it's for the best!
(4) Public works (Hospitals, rail, and airport) were all going off the rail with expenses way above-contracted amounts. It was evident, in almost all cases that theft, bribery and other forms of crime had been committed and cash and resources had been misappropriated on a scale that was almost unimaginable. So the new President takes immediate action; it's not entirely clear if he had any real thought as to what he was doing if he had consulted experts (probably not, he's very much like Trump that way, he hates experts), and proceeded to "slash and burn";
First was the new airport that was large enough to accommodate growth for the next 20 years, instead, Mexico city will have three airports... two of which have serious issues. Moreover, his finance "guru" failed to understand that a state guarantee is still a state guarantee, so US$ 9 billion had to be paid off to the lenders (on a total of US$ 17 billion).
Second, he stopped the building of 39 public hospitals, but he also cut doctor's salary so, in the end, they didn't need the hospital since som many doctors left and went into private practice.
In terms of official political objective AMLO offered (a) "an end of corruption, and (b) Security. He seems to have delivered on "a" above, and there are now ways to denounce those who seek bribery. So that would appear to be a win for him and his government (hey you get one every so often). But even then, he did either stupidly or callously -- terminated all shelters for battered women (all of them) and so far no replacement, shut down all the state-sponsored daycare centers. Again, his solution was to give MXN 500 per month when the cost was a multiple of that.
He promised SECURITY and delivered anything but security, his new police force was deployed on the southern border to stop migrants from reaching Mexico's northern border. In fact, Trump's administration was right on that one, if you want to ask for asylum you have to ask it in the "First country in which you arrive" So that would be Mexico.
On external forces he tried to be politically savvy with Trump, he completely failed to understand that Trump could not be reasoned with -- he simply cannot understand what is being said to him and uses FOX news as his policy guide. So the yoyo with Mexico and Canada harmed both economies. In a sense he was right, both Mexico and Canada are far too dependent on the US (something I have said for years).
There were a number of stupid "own goals" that harmed the economy, but the truth is that since AMLO came to power, security that was a small expense item for companies and individuals is now a larger item, that the US played games with its southern neighbor is evident and has been harmful tot he economy.
Will 2020 be better for Mexico? it is hard to say, the tools are not in place, Pemex is still facing the same problems it did two years ago, CFE seems to be in worse shape ever, as the private projects that were commissioned in 2017 /2018 come on line no new project
May you live in interesting times!
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