First, everyone should listen to the Hidden Force podcast, it's a revealing and very interesting discussion about politics, economics on a global scale.
Addendum: It seems that a trade agreement is on the table, again, with China and that they are working on the final wording. First, is Trump's promise that China will import $200 billion of US goods. If you consider that agribusiness is the #, and it peaked at $79 billion (at today's price it would be around $60 billion) its hard to see how this will be achieved. It all seems like a massive clime down by Trump (but again it's hard to know since the whole thing is "shrouded in secrecy" granted the final document has not been drafted or signed. But overall, Trump back down on tariffs -- and it's not entirely clear why. What is clear is that $200 billion is wishful thinking and will eventually cause more trade friction.
Yesterday, Trump announced new tariffs on Brazil and Argentina, because they had the gall to sell pork to the Chinese, yep now its punitive tariffs on the competitive global market that attract Trump's furor (actually it doesn't take much).
He's also at "war" with France (really bad economy), Germany, and China. To say that China is having a bit of trouble is an understatement, the amount of dollars it has spent protecting its currency from devaluation has been astronomical (tens of billion in October) and the state of the Chinese economy has been devasted by the Porcine flue that has killed apparently 1/3 of the country's porc population.
However, there was always the glimmer (offered by Trump no less) that a trade agreement would be signed -- any day now! Last night Trump indicated that agreement with China may well be delayed until after the 2020 election. Actually, paying attention to Trump on this is a massive waste of time since he's a true wind vane, and his tweet can turn 180 degrees within the same day.
However, the last 24 hours have shown that Trump is a destabilizing factor; Nato is on the block -- Trump has indicated that the US may withdraw from the 60-year-old agreement. He's fighting with Germany (where Germany has a trade DEFICIT with the US), France (less French wine or cheese I guess) and now with Brazil, Argentina, Mexico....well maybe it is worth looking with whom he's not picked a fight...yet!
The point is that a trade agreement with China was probably never on the card, Trump wants specific things that the Chinese will never agree to enact. Moreover, the revulsion about China and the treatment of its population with Orwellian instruments of population control, the fight in Hong Kong (America discovered Hong Kong about two weeks ago...) makes China a pariah in most countries now, when you realize what they are up to in terms of population control (with the help of a lot of US technology apparently).
Things in China appear to be taking a turn (maybe we just found out...) for the gross and disgusting, with re-education camps (concentration camps) with massive crematoriums where apparently prisoners are being killed and their organs sold for transplant in the most inhumane (there really is no way to say this) way possible. Let's just say that if you get a kidney from China odds are strong that a healthy person was killed and his organs were harvested (see the Israeli press on this).
In purely economic terms, China is a massive importer of basic goods, it cannot feed itself and seems to be facing a shortage of hard currencies (despite its apparent reserves). China is now well able to repress its population (eg Western China and Hong Kong) but the truth is that if it cannot feed its population that has, in the past been a reason for regime change in that country.
Finally, and this is the strangest, after America and South Korea failed to agree to a new mutual defense pact, South Korean made an agreement with China. Overall, it's not entirely clear what Trump is trying to achieve. He's managed to anger the Japanese, he's pushed the South Korean away, he's in a fight with Mexico, Canada, Germany, France, Argentina, and Brazil. His play with turkey backfired almost immediately. He's clearly looking forward to a fight with China. His friends are Israel and Russia (and Boris in the UK).
the problem is what is Trump's game plan, and the more you look at his strategy you realize that his strategy is chaos. Trump has always thrived on chaos as a business strategy, it served him well through all his difficulties, he's now applying his strategy on the world stage and the implications are unclear.
Addendum: It seems that a trade agreement is on the table, again, with China and that they are working on the final wording. First, is Trump's promise that China will import $200 billion of US goods. If you consider that agribusiness is the #, and it peaked at $79 billion (at today's price it would be around $60 billion) its hard to see how this will be achieved. It all seems like a massive clime down by Trump (but again it's hard to know since the whole thing is "shrouded in secrecy" granted the final document has not been drafted or signed. But overall, Trump back down on tariffs -- and it's not entirely clear why. What is clear is that $200 billion is wishful thinking and will eventually cause more trade friction.
Yesterday, Trump announced new tariffs on Brazil and Argentina, because they had the gall to sell pork to the Chinese, yep now its punitive tariffs on the competitive global market that attract Trump's furor (actually it doesn't take much).
He's also at "war" with France (really bad economy), Germany, and China. To say that China is having a bit of trouble is an understatement, the amount of dollars it has spent protecting its currency from devaluation has been astronomical (tens of billion in October) and the state of the Chinese economy has been devasted by the Porcine flue that has killed apparently 1/3 of the country's porc population.
However, there was always the glimmer (offered by Trump no less) that a trade agreement would be signed -- any day now! Last night Trump indicated that agreement with China may well be delayed until after the 2020 election. Actually, paying attention to Trump on this is a massive waste of time since he's a true wind vane, and his tweet can turn 180 degrees within the same day.
However, the last 24 hours have shown that Trump is a destabilizing factor; Nato is on the block -- Trump has indicated that the US may withdraw from the 60-year-old agreement. He's fighting with Germany (where Germany has a trade DEFICIT with the US), France (less French wine or cheese I guess) and now with Brazil, Argentina, Mexico....well maybe it is worth looking with whom he's not picked a fight...yet!
The point is that a trade agreement with China was probably never on the card, Trump wants specific things that the Chinese will never agree to enact. Moreover, the revulsion about China and the treatment of its population with Orwellian instruments of population control, the fight in Hong Kong (America discovered Hong Kong about two weeks ago...) makes China a pariah in most countries now, when you realize what they are up to in terms of population control (with the help of a lot of US technology apparently).
Things in China appear to be taking a turn (maybe we just found out...) for the gross and disgusting, with re-education camps (concentration camps) with massive crematoriums where apparently prisoners are being killed and their organs sold for transplant in the most inhumane (there really is no way to say this) way possible. Let's just say that if you get a kidney from China odds are strong that a healthy person was killed and his organs were harvested (see the Israeli press on this).
In purely economic terms, China is a massive importer of basic goods, it cannot feed itself and seems to be facing a shortage of hard currencies (despite its apparent reserves). China is now well able to repress its population (eg Western China and Hong Kong) but the truth is that if it cannot feed its population that has, in the past been a reason for regime change in that country.
Finally, and this is the strangest, after America and South Korea failed to agree to a new mutual defense pact, South Korean made an agreement with China. Overall, it's not entirely clear what Trump is trying to achieve. He's managed to anger the Japanese, he's pushed the South Korean away, he's in a fight with Mexico, Canada, Germany, France, Argentina, and Brazil. His play with turkey backfired almost immediately. He's clearly looking forward to a fight with China. His friends are Israel and Russia (and Boris in the UK).
the problem is what is Trump's game plan, and the more you look at his strategy you realize that his strategy is chaos. Trump has always thrived on chaos as a business strategy, it served him well through all his difficulties, he's now applying his strategy on the world stage and the implications are unclear.
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