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Quebec election: The aftermath

 To nobody's surprise, the CAQ won the fixed date elections on October 3rd, 2022.

The polling numbers all the way in August showed that the CAQ was going to win a majority by a wide margin (they got 90 seats and needed 63). The turnout was poor at 66% of eligible voters -- as an example in the 1997 referendum, 97% of eligible voters went to vote.    

More interesting were the other parties:

The Liberal are the big losers here with a drop of almost 500,000 votes for the party. The total impact was that the official opposition saw its number fall from 25 to 21 seats in the new parliament.

The Parti Quebecois lost one seat but got more votes than the Liberals -- so that's good

The Quebec Solidaire saw a fall of one seat, but it too got more votes than the Liberals

The Conservatives got 200,000 fewer votes than the Liberals but got zero seats.

The story of the October 3rd election is that all four opposition parties got nearly all the same percentage of votes, but the Liberal vote was far more concentrated.  In many parts of Quebec, the Liberals were fifth, but in those areas where it won, it won big, like in the center of Montreal.

The prime minister made himself "the prime minister of the entire population but also announced that he wanted Quebec City to play a more dominant role in the economy of the province.  That means that the government will provide incentives for companies to operate in the provincial capital.  Quebec City is currently the third largest city in the province, after the city of Laval (next to Montreal) so there's a lot of work to do there.  

Maybe the prime minister will consult his minister of the economy, who famously move a lot of his own company's operations to Montreal because he was unable to find English speakers in the provincial capital...his business was selling vitamins across the continent -- where English dominates.

So, what's next?

(1) Formation of a cabinet (representative) but the economy, finance and health are untouchable.  will take place mid-October.

(2) Who will replace Francois Legault?  Even the 30 days of the election tested the prime Minister's stamina and interest in remaining the leader of the party

(3) Dealing with the rest of Canada: As Quebec is less and less loved by the rest of Canada, there may be opportunities for Quebec to leave the confederation.  One thing is clear the rest of Canada has just had about enough of the province.  This is probably the most important factor.  the rest of Canada's deep dislike of the province and its inhabitants are becoming a serious problem in its relations.  Trudeau will not do anything about it, but he will not be there forever.


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