Nearly 35,000 new jobs…this is a recession?

Once the yield curve is inverted a recession is “baked in the cake”. As David Rosenberg is often quoted, it’s a sure thing. Yet job creation exceeded expectations. 35,000 new jobs is a lot. Granted we don’t know the composition of these new jobs.

I have no positive analysis about all this inflation is still high, mostly driven by externalities (it’s not higher salaries) but it is evident that people are feeling confident and leaving jobs and seeking new ones. Interesting times in deed.

Still historically inverted yield curve means recession in 100% of all cases

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