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Showing posts from July, 2023

Wagner leaving Africa

The decapitation of the Wagner group was going to lead to major change in its African operations. Right now there are rumours that several divisions have already left their post. It is evident that this is done very quietly and be denied by everyone. It is entirely probable that the Russians are looking to replace the command systems of the Wagner group with their own commands, but the soldiers are less than interested, and have made a lot of money, and have no appetite to return to the Russian armed forces. The Wagner group of soldiers have a little interest in returning the Russian army, which is known for its incompetence and corruption. This means that officers and unlisted men who have the means have already put in place alternative exits strategy, so that they can not return to Russia It was telling when the offices of Vágner were overtaken by the Russian army, that they found money different identities for the head of Vágner and you can assume that others within the group had th...

Re-insurance market July 1

Lloyds of London the worlds largest reinsurance market has just instituting new premium policy for catastrophic loss in the US.  reinsurance premium have risen by 50% starting July 1, 2023. This is catastrophic for the US insurance market, because it means that large US insurance company are no longer able to offload part of the catastrophic loss risk that has grown exponentially over the past decade or so. We have already seen an important shift with the disappearance of casualty insurance in California and Florida, because of either fire risk in California or flooding and hurricane risk in Florida. The most interesting aspect of the US right view of global warming is it inability to understand how others will view it. The reinsurance market, cares little for US policy or politics. They are entirely driven by profits and right now in California and Florida the risk is no longer worth it, catastrophic losses in US insurance markets has made this market unappealing to the global mar...

China’s newish security laws

 On the one hand, China wants to attract foreign direct investment so that its population continues to prosper on the other hand China has become fearful of foreigners and threats them as convenience scapegoats. The new securities law that were installed more than 18 months ago are not starting to bite. The reason is that since the Covid barriers have been lifted investors are starting to return to China.  It has been noticed that many consulting firms have either sold or shut down their Chinese operations, and these operations were specifically created to bring new North American or European investors to China Oh, it is widely known that travel between Canada and China is only 20% of what it was prior to the Covid epidemic with the US travel is less than 10% of what it used to be. This is a fundamental shift in the American investors mindset that China is a good place to invest. In fact, the numbers for China are not that good labour costs and political risk have risen; ...

Funny dinner last night: the plight of aboriginals in Canada

 So last night at dinner, we had new acquaintances joining us. The wife is a well-known aboriginal activist. And the husband is an actor. Her family arrived in Canada in the late 19 century although she is white, her grandparents were black. She has made a mission in life to represent the rights of aboriginals and their miss treatment by the white majority. The arguments were strange, because Canada has largely devolved the responsibilities of tribal affairs to the tribes themselves in a sense the Canadian government’s only involvement is paying the tab, and yet the government is accused of poorly managing the process Watching the conversation I was struck by an impossible vision of the world where European descendants were responsible for the success of aboriginal policies, but we’re not in charge of their implementation. Canada does not have the best history of treating aboriginals correctly although it should be pointed out that life on the frontier whether you were aboriginal o...