for the past three months, the China Academy of science has released partial information, not only on the estimated real birth rate over the past two decades, but also on the composition of this birth rate what seems to have emerged is that for variety of reasons state governments have lied to their Composition and number Births.
The trend is not new. What is new is the formal articulation that there is a serious and balance between men and women of reproductive ages the Academy of sciences to be believe the difference is around 10%, which means that there are too many males for two female.
The disparity has been underplayed, not only at the state level, but even in families who have resorted to abortions even late abortion to sue towards having male children to support families in their older age.
The world bank has estimated that by 2100 China’s population population could be as low as 800 million assuming that it starts at 1.4 billion today. Part of the problem course is that it’s very unlikely that there are more than 1.2not 1.4 billion Chinese today.
700 million Chinese still sounds like a lot but has to be remembered that it’s not only the number that counts but also the make up of the population as of January 1, 2024. There are more than 360 million Chinese over the age of 65 they are more Chinese retiree than they are Americans, and the Chinese pension system is not existent. This presents a huge challenge for the country because the age of retirement for men is 65 and between 55 and 60 for women.
I’ve said this before, but this is an important change in a society, and the impact on economic performance is literally uncharted territory we have never had a situation where old people were dominating the economic reality and were nonproductive members of society. There is no economic theory that covers this issue. None there is not even an understanding of what it means for an economy when such a large percentage of the population is absorbing economic resources, but not participating in the economic growth.
it sounds like a very callous way of thinking of aging, but the reality is that our economic system is geared towards a pyramid like ageing structure, where there are fewer and fewer older people, and the majority of the population is either children who will become economic contributor or working age people who are economic contributed how do you deal with a percentage of population who will never contribute to the economy in the western world, I have a pretty good idea of what it would look like higher taxes, lower growth in a country like China may be more drastic. It’s just impossible to know when Pragmatism makes a dictatorship become a Horror show
I would never dare to make such predictions first it sounds unlikely and his remarkably callous but China has a fundamental problem. It has a half decent healthcare system and it has a rapidly ageing population with no replacement in sight in 1955 after the famine birth rate exploded to 30 million piranha on a population of less than 900 million in 2023 it is estimated and is probably still overstated slightly. That birth were slightly less than 10 million or less than a third of what they had been 65 years earlier
The world in general and China in particular are entering an undiscovered country, China, Italy, Germany, and obviously, Japan, and Korea are at the forefront of a sea change in population make up. They are the first to see the greatest signs of the impact of falling birth rates in some places, the impact is well obvious and land prices have fallen dramatically and real estate that had for the past 50 years been the most attractive source of investment have become a drag on the economy.
everyone has heard of the house in Italy or Portugal or Spain that can be required for less than a euro some people have even heard of houses for sale in central Tokyo that can be purchased for less than $40,000 which is amazing when you consider that in 1987, Tokyo had the most expensive land price in the world by order of magnitude than anywhere else in the world.
This is what I mean by undiscovered country or fundamental understanding of economics of the relationship between the value of assets will have to change as The population grows older, the demand for assets changes personally, I find this fundamentally facet because it forces investors and analyst to consider the idea and concept of value
most people seem to believe that the impact of COVID-19 was the reason why the downtown Coors of the economies have been having such a hard time for the past five years. There is no doubt that remote working as a viable alternative to being in the office has had an impact however the reality is that even the marginal demand for office space has declined as businesses, slow down and mature and require lesscontentious than the idea that has overbuilt housing that is in the panic in the countryside. These are well known well. Observed facts remains that as an investor as an analyst. , this contentious than the idea that China has over built housing that Japan is in panic in the countryside. These are well known well observed facts but remains that as an investor as an analyst as a strategist. These are important issues if you’re planning long-term portfolio.
anyway, it’s just a thought
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