Skip to main content

Farming, Tariffs and the new world order

We run a relatively large farm in the Eastern part of the United Kingdom, this part of the UK has been recognized as farm land all they way back to the Doomsday book, in the case of our core farm, since the publication of the little doomsday book.   Yes, almost a 1,000 years of farming history.    

When we decided to "quit" the City nearly a decade ago, we both wanted to return to our family roots, here in Norfolk, where both my family and that of my wife originated.  Imagine our surprise when the ancestral property of my wife's family came on the market, we thought it was a sign.  However, my wife decided to "commission" a study on UK food production, its pain point, what was profitable and what was not.   

First, both end of the food production, which take on most of the risk are the least profitable, farming and distribution to end users, (aka supermarkets) are the least profitable part of the equation.   The best example is mince meat, for the farmer its a lost leader, the meat is the cheapest cut, the left over, for the supermarket, the handling is expensive, and mince meat has a very short shelf life.   That is only one simple example. 

Our dairy operation never sold unprocessed milk, every ounce of our milk is processed into cheese on site.  Selling milk to wholesaler would generate a profit of about 5%, and some years that can be zero, milk cow are subject to sickness.   Our cheese business generates, year in year out about 20% IRR, which is a lot better...

Our meat production is entirely processed on-site in our own slaughterhouse, which is open to a few local farmers, already we increase our profit potential, we still sell about half the cattle value via wholesalers, mostly to the restaurant trade, because we track every single cattle from birth to the client's chiller... 100% of the less desirable parts of the cattle is sold internally to transformation businesses (aka meat pie business).  Our least profitable business in cattle is selling wholesale to high end British restaurants, but it doesn't mean its not valuable, there's also a side business where we retain our prime cuts with direct to consumer sales (its less than 15% of our cattle business).

Our fruit and vegetable business was always driven to the "top of the market" 100% of our crops is grown inside climate controlled greenhouses, and our premium fruits and vegetables are sold. via wholesalers, to the restaurant trade in the UK.   The "top of the top" production is sold at a large premium to ordinary fruits and vegetables, the rest of our fruits and vegetables, which are less than prime (discolouration, shape etc) is sold internally to our transformation businesses.

In 2023/24 we increased our greenhouse space by nearly 65%, 90% of this increase in production was to meet the demand our our transformation businesses.   If 100% of our fruits and vegetables could be sold as "top of the top" our margins would be around 9%, respectable by any metrics, today we generate nearly 12%, the growth is entirely driven by our "less than perfect fruits and vegetables", which now account for nearly 76% of total production from our greenhouses.   

Now, lets be clear, we have huge acreage of land, we are about 82% energy independent because of our biodigestors and methane powered generators.   Our farm is not carbon neutral, but its getting close, the extra steps are too expensive to implement, and probably not worth the effort (aka biodiesel).   Today in 2025, our "loss leader" business is the high end production, it is our least profitable part of the business. 

I want to be clear, our profit margin on the "high end consumers" is still profitable, and we don't intend to change our mix very much.   2024 was a very profitable business for the farm and the other 12 businesses we acquired over the past decade.   I've discussed the businesses in general terms before, bottom line we substantial unmet demand already. it's not a happy situation, but to meet the additional demand would require massive capital expenditure and our partners (we own about 65% of the outstanding capital of each company) are not keen on expanding, and since they are the day to day manager we take their concern into our calculations, in addition, my wife and I (especially my wife since she runs the whole show) are not interested in pushing harder anyway.

Now, the games being played in Washington are affecting our business indirectly, as the wealth of our nation are affected by the decision made four thousand miles away.   The biggest impact has been on demand for our "top of the top" production,  the high end is hurting a bit.  But the middle is also hurting, our meat pie business would usually sell out production in three days, now it takes five days to sell as many meat pies, It means that we run out of production more slowly, which means that we are closer to meeting market demand, than in the past.  right now, we have bare storage Friday morning instead of Wednesday morning.   Yes it could get worse, but we are not yet concerned, we are  watching.   The baby food business is still on fire, but its a short window for consumers anyway --- a yaar or two at most (its a bit of a joke).   In all we have 12 business, and we are seem slowdown in four, but we are still far from being in trouble.     At worst we can start shipping products to Europe again, but we are still very far from that situation.  

In short, the tariffs do harm our business, more int he planning part than in the production part.   We are still confident that we can maintain our margins, but probably not grow the business any further.   That has its own challenges.

P.S.  I have not mentioned our farm manager for some time, she still doing great work and assuming more and more responsibilities.   We just celebrated her second anniversary as the  farm manager.   








  

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

The end of Tesla?

 it takes a special kind of idiot, to think that he can antagonize his entire customer base, and think that it will not impact his business. When Elon Musk went to work for Donald Trump, and created the doge department, he antagonized every liberal, and these people represent 90% of his client base.That’s not a brilliant move. Now Elon Musk is worth hundreds of billions of dollar, so he shouldn’t care a great deal, however, he needs to care because of several other issues. The cyber truck has been a disaster, most have had to be recalled because of defective glue, it’s not a truck, it’s not a car, it’s noisy, relatively uncomfortable, but great as a development platform. What Tesla has learned in making car manufacturing more seamless is truly amazing. The problem was that Elon Musk was so pissed with the Democrats, and with Joe Biden, in particular because of some slight, which were just plain stupid too. By the way, that he decided to support with hundreds of millions of dollar, ...

Donald Trump‘s bad bargain

 The entire of 2023 and 2024 when Donald Trump was running for the White House, his mantra was no war, that the Ukraine conflict would be resolved in a day, and that he would do everything not to involve America and war. How the world has changed! He finds himself facing three conflicts; Ukraine, still going on almost 5 months after he became president. Gaza, an unspeakable crime against humanity, is obviously going to go all the way to its bitter end. And finally, Israel’s attack against Iran. It’s important to note, that Benjamin Netanyahu first indicated at the United nation that the Iranian were 3 to 5 years away from having the nuclear bomb. He made that statement in 1995. Therefore, no one is surprised that he uses the same two lines every so often. It’s entirely possible, that 30 years after he first announced it, that Iran has finally developed the bomb. It’s also remarkable that Iran, local power has been destroyed, from Yemen, to Syria, via Lebanon and Gaza to small exten...

TACO again, but worst!

 Donald Trump got the rare earth metals that he had thrown away on April 2, liberation day as he called it. What did the Chinese get in exchange? The whole deal, is on the wrap right now. But let’s be clear. It’s the Chinese that have the upper hand.Some of the materials made by the Chinese, are simply unavailable anywhere else. suspicions are that the Chinese got the high-end chips that they lost under Biden. Tariffs will probably return to the level of April 1, and in the end Donald and his friends got nothing for it. It gets worse, Chinese exports to United States are down 40%. The Chinese have found new markets, I probably never gonna buy American grain again. Once again, Donald Trump proved he’s a great negotiator. He got absolutely nothing for his Showmanship. He told the world, that everyone would come and kiss his ass, instead they’re laughing At him. There’s no joke about Donald Trump, a 25 and inherited a huge fortune and proceeded to make it a small one. Bottom line, the...