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Procurement

Nobody should be surprised by Europe's recent weapons' procurement announcements.  On one side, the word is out that Europe is looking, and has a verbal agreement with Donald Trump to manufacture Patriot missile systems under license.   However, Europe is also looking at short range missiles out of Ukraine.  Guess which system will be running first; sorry no contest, it will be the Ukrainian system, first its short range, (less than 1,000 NM) which matches the European theater of war (aka Russia), second, a deal with Trump is never real even when it is signed, looked at all the agreements he signed over the past two years, few lasted more than 90 days before Trump changed his mind.   

The truth is that the Patriot deal is probably vaporware, and will never be implemented, but it gives Trump the oxygen he seeks with his base, which is the only thing that matters to him.  He can say that the Europeans are "begging" for US missile systems.  He probably doesn't even know that the Ukrainian system is almost as performant, at 1/40th of the cost.

The truth is that the world leaders in drone technology are Iran and Ukraine (with a lot of Chinese components).   The drone bombing in the middle east over the past few days has been catastrophic for US land based forces.  The American government and the department of defence (War) may deny this reality, but they are getting their ass quicked.   From Saudi Arabia to Oman everyone has concluded massive contracts with Ukraine for the purchase and deployment of their drone technology.   America is not part of the conversation.  America is still fighting the old war with half a million missiles against $50,000 drones.  It's not a fair fight, America's fleet is hiding in the Red Sea, far from the Gulf because they know they cannot protect their vessels from Iranian drones.  That is the reality of war in the 21st century.

America's only solution is boots on the ground, but Iran is far more difficult to conquer than Afghanistan or Iraq, the terrain is brutal, and the Iranian have been planning for a US invasion for nearly 30 years.   The real drama is that the games that Trump has played in the Strait will almost insured that Iran will re-activate its nuclear weapons program, and the fact that Israel is following its own agenda, is future indication that the Israeli have decided that America is unwilling to do what it needs, and will take its own action, at any rate the American Congress is certain to stop any American actions against Israel.   

What all this means is that the war between Iran/Israel/the United States is spreading, and none of this is good for the world economy.  Trump has said it many times, he doesn't care about any of this.  So expect the gloves to really come off between Iran and Israel, but also some of the gulf states may well decide that their interests are not with Americans and will take their own decision vis-a-vis Iran and Israel.  

America is discovering that the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait are far less interested in providing bases to the American military since it makes them targets.  This hot war is reshaping global alliance and priorities.   This was ALWAYS going to happen, the Middle East and American interest have been diverging for years, the same with Europe and America.   Europe is re-arming quickly, even Germany!  However, they are paying lip service to American systems, with the full understanding that America is not arming itself for the 21st century war, and America has no interest in protecting the NATO alliance.  


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