Skip to main content

A busy week!

I finally got my walking papers from my employer -- after waiting and hoping for more than six months, my (now former) employer finally came to its sense and made me an offer I could not refuse, I happily walked the plank, and I am now officially unemployed -- Yeah bitches!

Not entirely sure they were expecting my reaction, they are nice people, but I they keep on saying no to my deals!  What`s a guy to do?

My silence over the past two days was due first to the above mentioned:  "Your services are no longer required" episode, but also due to the fact that I had "minor" surgery yesterday morning -- the most painful part was when they removed the surgical tap that held the surgical cloth up (to keep the area clean).  No worries dear reader I was not emasculated -- no the "operation" was near my eyes -- I now look like a punch drunk boxer.

I`ve been out of it for 24 hours -- but the news this morning is far from glorious.  Don`t kid yourself, the ECB is cutting rates because Europe`s economy is in free fall (and by Europe I mean Germany).  The president of the ECB is doing his best to reduce confidence.  

Europe is like an alcoholic, the first step is to admit you have a problem; the leaders of France and Germany still have not done this.  They are still operating in the bubble that "everything will be fine" if the PIIGS cut their deficit.  Its a bit like watching a slow speed "black ice" accident

Sorry uploaded the wrong file


Popular posts from this blog

Trucker shortage? No a plan to allow driverless rigs

There are still articles on how America is running out of truckers -- and that its a huge problem, except its not a problem, if it was a problem salaries would rise to so that demand would clear. Trucking is one of those industry where the vast majority of participants are owner/operators and therefore free agents.

Salaries and cost are extremely well know, "industry" complains that there are not enough truckers, yet wages continue to fall... Therefore there are still too many truckers around, for if there was a shortage of supply prices would rise, and they don't.

What there is though is something different; there is a push to allow automatic rigs to "operate across the US", so to encourage the various authorities to allow self driving rigs you talk shortage and hope that politicians decided that "Well if people don't want to work, lets get robots to do the work" or words to that effect.

This has nothing to do with shortage of drivers, but every…

Every punter says oil prices are on the rise: Oil hits $48/bbl -- lowest since September 2016

What the hell?

How could this be, punters, advisors, investment bankers all agreed commodity prices  in general and oil prices in particular are on the rise...its a brave new era for producers and exporters -- finally the world is back and demand is going through the roof, except not so much!

What happened?  Well energy is complicated, the world operates in a balance -- 30 days of physical reserves is about all we've got (seriously) this is a just in time business.  So the long term trend always gets hit by short term variations.

Global production over the past 12 months has risen by somewhat less than 1.5% per annum.  As the world market changes production becomes less energy intensive (maybe), but the reality is that the world is growing more slowly -- America Q4 GDP growth was around 1.9% (annualized) Europe is going nowhere fast (the GDP growth in Germany is overshadowed by the lack of growth in France, Italy, Spain (lets say 27 Euro members generated a total GDP growth of 1.2…

Paying for research

This morning I was reading that CLSA -- since 2013 proudly owned by CITIC -- was shutting down its American equity research department -- 90 people will be affected!

Now the value of a lot of research is limited, that is not to say that all research is bad. In fact, I remember that GS's Asia Aerospace research was considered the bible for the sector.  Granted, there was little you could do with the research since the "buy" was for Chinese airlines...that were state owned.  Still it was a vey valuable tool in understanding the local dynamics.  It seems that the US has introduced new legislation that forces brokers to "sell" their research services!  Figures of $10,000 an hour have been mentioned...

Now, research can be sold many times; if GS has 5000/6000 clients they may sell the same research 300x or 400x (I exaggerate) but this is the key -- Those who buy the research are, I presume, prohibited from giving it away or selling it, at the same time the same rese…