Sunday, December 25, 2011

Merry Christmas to all

It is Christmas day, and of for the past few days I have not written very much. Frankly, the Canadian scene has been quiet -- aside from inflation data that showed that inflation is not under control in Canada, in reality inflation is steady at 2.5%, while transport costs (read fuel prices) are rising much faster.

GDP growth for October was flat (after many months of strong growth).  The reality that is GDP growth seems to indicate that Canada strong Q3 growth will be match by adequate Q4 growth, but nothing to write home about. It makes the numbers for the whole year closer to a level of 2.0% than the 2.5% that had generally been hoped for.

It is hard to say what will happen in 2012, since the BoC's hands are tied by global economic conditions.  The tea leaves for Canada are impossible to read, the events emerging in China, Europe and America will determine what happens to the Canadian economy.

Europe's story for 2012 seems to be largely written, and the news is not very good.  On the other hand China and America could surprise (despite the deleverging trend)


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