Skip to main content

Anti vaxxer and Chem trail -- what?

I've been reading a number of articles of late on the anti vaccination movement in the US  The strangest aspect is that most anti-vaccine people are well educated and rich.  Where did these ideas come from, how come it remains at the forefront of discussion (mostly in the US)?  The same for Chem Trails -- that's the idea that jet "mix" in their exhausts chemical to do something -- bottom line whatever they are doing its very very dangerous...

How can reasonably smart people believe this utter bullshit?  I mean think about it, it makes no more sense than Pizzagate -- that's the story that Clinton and friends were running a child abduction (I think) center in the basement of a DC pizzeria (called Comet) so certain that this as fact that one crazy guy even went to investigate (with his long gun) -- and didn't believe the owner when he told him that the pizzeria had no basement.  apparently shots were fired.

All these stories have one thing in common, Facebook -- I had no idea but it appears that these groups are created and then self-select news that demonstrate their viewpoint.  In fact, there are also Facebook pages for UFO abductions (did you know that nearly 20% of Americans believe in UFOs), and BTW its says something about America's obsessions with their asses, that anal probes are a prominent fixture of these abduction sites -- why in the world would aliens be so obsessed with our asses?

The absence of real analysis, of using half truth or 100% invented stories -- making links between things that do not exist -- its all very strange.  Take chem trails, there are applications available that show you exactly what is flying overhead -- in fact, if you live in the US, you just type what plane is overflying me and presto you know what airline what aircraft and its origin and destination. Those obsesses with Chem Trail or anti Vaxx movements never talk of the logistics, never check their sources use circumstantial evidence as proof.

A very good friend faced a serious and deadly cancer with a very low survival rate, mortality was in the 80% range.  He used classical aggressive medicine, but also considered alternative medicine, some of his friends now say that he survived because of alternative medicine!  Its been 10 years and he fine, because people will believe in miracles rather than statistics; 80% mortality also means that 20% survive and of these 20% a small portion have complete remission...doesn't mean that cancer treatment is bullshit, it just means that for that cancer there's only a 20% chance of surviving, but 20% is not zero.  Also its entirely possible that the alternative medicine (and change of lifestyle) help a lot!

But none of these serious questions are answered, there is a "out there" kind of reality. For chem trail it doesn't matter so much since there is really nothing anyone can do (except where foil hats...ha ha). However, the anti vaccination movement is something else, because until recently this minority were protected by the herd -- a few kids no vaccine were protected by the other children that were vaccinated.  However, in parts of California certain schools are seeing up to nearly 40% of children not being vaccinated -- and there are real consequence there (life and death).

So we now have the ability to shut off parts of the information stream (self selection) so that we confirm our bias.  If you are convince that Clinton was running a pedofile center in DC, then she is evil, and you have proof from articles that fiends sent you in your Facebook feed.  If you believe that aircraft are using certain products to alter human kind, or that Trump is a Russian spy, there's a feed for you.

As an example, the worse you can say about Trump is that he is a cretin, that he doesn't care about facts outside his own reality (and how the world views him), the idea that Trump could be a Manchurian candidate is ludicrous.  The reason he will not be impeached...he was (and remains) looking for commercial advantage for him and his family, getting special treatment in China for his Hotel (apparently) and other benefits.

Newspaper used to be curated, now people don't need newspaper and TV shows will say anything that supports their position -- FOX is the worse of the lot, but by no means the only one.  The availability of information (or Bullshit dressed as information) is wide ranging and easily available to those looking to confirm their position.  Even I succumb to the maladie; how often have I looked at the news via Daily Kos or TMP or NYT, I have a hard time looking at FOX news, Drudge Report or Zero Hedge are difficult to read -- my own bias delegitimize these sources of information

What will kill our society:  Free "information"


Popular posts from this blog

Trucker shortage? No a plan to allow driverless rigs

There are still articles on how America is running out of truckers -- and that its a huge problem, except its not a problem, if it was a problem salaries would rise to so that demand would clear. Trucking is one of those industry where the vast majority of participants are owner/operators and therefore free agents.

Salaries and cost are extremely well know, "industry" complains that there are not enough truckers, yet wages continue to fall... Therefore there are still too many truckers around, for if there was a shortage of supply prices would rise, and they don't.

What there is though is something different; there is a push to allow automatic rigs to "operate across the US", so to encourage the various authorities to allow self driving rigs you talk shortage and hope that politicians decided that "Well if people don't want to work, lets get robots to do the work" or words to that effect.

This has nothing to do with shortage of drivers, but every…

Every punter says oil prices are on the rise: Oil hits $48/bbl -- lowest since September 2016

What the hell?

How could this be, punters, advisors, investment bankers all agreed commodity prices  in general and oil prices in particular are on the rise...its a brave new era for producers and exporters -- finally the world is back and demand is going through the roof, except not so much!

What happened?  Well energy is complicated, the world operates in a balance -- 30 days of physical reserves is about all we've got (seriously) this is a just in time business.  So the long term trend always gets hit by short term variations.

Global production over the past 12 months has risen by somewhat less than 1.5% per annum.  As the world market changes production becomes less energy intensive (maybe), but the reality is that the world is growing more slowly -- America Q4 GDP growth was around 1.9% (annualized) Europe is going nowhere fast (the GDP growth in Germany is overshadowed by the lack of growth in France, Italy, Spain (lets say 27 Euro members generated a total GDP growth of 1.2…

Paying for research

This morning I was reading that CLSA -- since 2013 proudly owned by CITIC -- was shutting down its American equity research department -- 90 people will be affected!

Now the value of a lot of research is limited, that is not to say that all research is bad. In fact, I remember that GS's Asia Aerospace research was considered the bible for the sector.  Granted, there was little you could do with the research since the "buy" was for Chinese airlines...that were state owned.  Still it was a vey valuable tool in understanding the local dynamics.  It seems that the US has introduced new legislation that forces brokers to "sell" their research services!  Figures of $10,000 an hour have been mentioned...

Now, research can be sold many times; if GS has 5000/6000 clients they may sell the same research 300x or 400x (I exaggerate) but this is the key -- Those who buy the research are, I presume, prohibited from giving it away or selling it, at the same time the same rese…