Skip to main content

Brexit -- the cost

The EU has been rather adamant that the UK will pay a very steep price for exiting the European Union.  In fact, requiring that the UK pay for everything.  The figure could be anywhere between Euro 60 billion and Euro 200 billion.  In effect, the EU has asked all its institutions to create a list of demands -- like a divorce, the demands can (will) be outrageous, because if you don't ask, you certainly will not get.

How the whole thing plays out is a different story.  There is no doubt that the EU wants its cake and to eat it too!  The UK has the same problem, of course its not about "cash" rather is about access to markets and ability of British National to travel freely within Europe.  The Ft this morning indicated that the UK will need to negotiate more than 700 treaties with various countries over various issues (so lots of work there).

How all this plays out is dependent on many factors:

(1) British Elections:

This morning the worse possible news for Theresa May, she may lose her parliamentary majority -- a richly deserve outcome at a particularly poorly run campaign, when Ms May though she had a 20 point lead in the opinion polls.  Her party's platform was mean (a la Trump) and she seem the relish the idea that she could do anything.  She had her platform demolished by various journalists -- in particular by Jeremy Paxton -- who demonstrated that Ms May had a poor understanding of what she was offering her country...

(2) Italy:

Now, all this could go away if Italy become the spoiler in this whole game.  It seems that the 2018 elections may actually occur in 2017, as the risk of a non-confidence vote escalate.  The reality is that within Italy's parties the vast majority are against remaining in Europe (and the Euro) because the country is facing dire problems with its banking system.  This could really upset the European apple cart.  Time will tell

(3) Greece

The key to Greece are the German Election in the autumn, the problem for Greece is that it has payment obligations in July -- on which it may default (it simply cannot repay the loans).  As the risk of default rises, there is a feeling among European that the Greek problem could play a major roll in the future of Europe, not because its important but because it too may exit the EU, and as such provide a blueprint for the UK -- after all the rules cannot be harsher for one player than for the other!  

(4) Trump

There is no doubt that Trump's European tour was a catalyst for European unity in the face of a a poorly informed bully.  His "planned announcement" to quit the Paris Accord, his non-support for Article 5 of the North Atlantic, and his clear pleasure at paling around with dictators -- Philipies, Saudi Arabia Russia -- he's event hinted that 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Spray painting Taylor Swift G650 aircraft (updated)

 First, a bit of paint will not harm anyone.  These climate activities are going to learn two things in the next few days:  (1) Trespassing at an airport is a felony almost anywhere in the world.  That means criminal prosecution.   (2) removing paint from an aircraft is expensive.   So these climate activists are about to find out the reach of the British criminal system and it will not be pleasant, the UK has very strict laws about that, I would be surprised if cleaning the aircraft of all the paint will cost less than $100,000.     I am sure that when they planned (premeditation) this little show they had a very valid logic to doing this.  Tonight, they are probably realizing the depth of their troubles.   I understand that in the UK it's a minimum one-year jail sentence.    Also, good luck travelling with a criminal trespass charge against you.  I am relatively certain that the airline industry will ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Tariffs on inhabited Island

 Two seldom-visited islands, part of Australia, saw a massive increase in the tariffs they will face when exporting to the United States.   The 32,000 residents did not have much to say...being Penguines.   NO kidding, massive tariffs were imposed on Heard Island and McDonald Islands.  According to the Australian government, the last visitor to Heard was about a decade ago.   Never mind the 47% tariff on Madagascar, where the principal export is Vanilla and the GDP per capita is less than $500 a year. Not only a Stable Genus but evidently an administration that took all of two hours to proof the list of countries.    They also treated St Pierre & Miquelon, two islands part of France in the middle of the St Lawrence Gulf...
Post a Comment
Read more

Britain, France and Egypt

 The voters realize now that the Conservative Praty desire to return to 19th-century dominance has driven its hatred of the EU.  The voters realize now that departure from the EU has accelerated Britain's decline and may soon make it irrelevant.  At best it will have to kiss American arses to maintain its standing.  For this, the conservatives were punished.  The decline of Britain was inevitable, competition from Frankfurt and Germany in Finance was bound to grow.  The core of Europe (aka Germany) is aging quickly Macron seems to be winning his bet, the left alliance that won the legislative elections will not remain united for long, since they disagree on about everything.   The Far right though it was about to assume power is once again relegated to the back of the bus.   It may draw its own conclusions, but not all of these are good for France.  The far-right has won nearly 1/3rd of the electorate, that is not something to be ig...
Post a Comment
Read more