Tuesday, May 23, 2017

Greece the continuing saga

This morning, the talks between Greece, the EU and the IMF broke down again.  There is no panic in the air, because everyone knows that it will be resolved...eventually.

I say this with far less conviction than in the past.  Until last year, when the last debt renegotiations took place there was a sense of doom, now not so much.  It may have to do with the departure of the United Kingdom from the EU, that Greece's exit is no longer such an issue, it could be that everyone believes that a deal will happen, at the 11th hour as usual.

The true cynic believe that the whole thing will be wrapped up once Merkel has won her elections in late September -- Greece has a debt payment due in July,  which it cannot repay, its economy has sunk back into recession, but there is simply no sense of market panic.

So to recap; for the past 4 years Greece has been going from nowhere to bad, recession, mild recovery and it can expect more of the same for the next 20 years.  The youth of the country will/is leaving the place -- anywhere has to be better than Greece.  Those who remain are forced to endure difficult economic condition, Greeks must be damming the day the joined the EU -- looking at Turkey with envy now (despite its "dictatorship").

Politicians have looked at the easy way out for the past 20 years, bankers have aided and abetted -- and guess who will pay the note, ordinary Greeks and ordinary Germans -- because once all is said and done, Greece cannot repay the outstanding debt -- the banks and investors that "invested" into Greece's disaster were all bailed out by the ECB or the IMF, which have replaced virtually 100% of the outstanding sovereign debt.

Undercapitalized European banks got bailed out (on the quiet) and now all of Europe is paying for Greece's folly.


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