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Interesting data points


Canadian retail sales remained sluggish in January – following on the previous 4 months, consumers are being careful with their wallets.  It could be that Canadians are finally “hearing” the message that excessive indebtedness is becoming a real problem in Canada.  Also, while the rest of Canada experience strong economic growth in Q4/10 (+3.3% GDP growth), Quebec lagged with 1.2% GDP growth, and January 2011 saw a 0.2% contraction while the rest of Canada saw growth (1.2%). Moreover, the trade deficit shrank in real terms. Businesses drew down inventories in order to meet domestic and foreign demand, which explained the modest GDP growth relative to demand growth.

Canadian businesses are seriously retooling, a trend that I had though run its course in Q3/2010 seems to be back investment in machinery and equipment jumped 19.6% annualized for a third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

Finally, for those who are interested, Canadian federal elections on May 2.  Rumors are that the Conservatives are ahead in the polls (now), but 4 weeks is a long time in politics, and things could change.

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